Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Friday, February 21, 2020

AI Summary. Wages in occupations that rely heavily on immigrant labor — including housekeepers, building-and-grounds maintenance workers, and drywall installers — are rising faster than in other low-wage jobs as immigration to the U.S. declines. Research finds wages growing 5% a year in five large metro areas where foreign-born populations fell.

Economist Staff The City
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Immigration to the US is down, and wages are up. Wages in occupations heavily reliant on immigrant labor are rising faster than other low-wage jobs, according to @TheEconomist.

Does falling immigration raise wages in immigrant-heavy occupations?

Core argument: The Economist's calculations show wages in occupations heavily reliant on immigrant labour — housekeepers, building-and-grounds maintenance workers and drywall installers — rising faster than in other low-wage jobs as immigration to the United States declines.

As immigration to the U.S. declines, wages in occupations heavily reliant on immigrant labor, such as housekeepers, building-and-grounds maintenance workers, and drywall installers, are rising faster than other low-wage jobs. According to The Economist's calculations, these sectors are experiencing significant wage growth due to reduced low-skill migration, which acts as a substitute for domestic workers. Additionally, research by William Frey of the Brookings Institution indicates that in five major metro areas with declining foreign-born populations from 2010-18, wages are increasing by 5% annually. This trend suggests that reduced immigration is contributing to wage growth in specific sectors and regions, highlighting the complex interplay between immigration patterns and labor market dynamics.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Economist's calculations show wages in occupations heavily reliant on immigrant labour — housekeepers, building-and-grounds maintenance workers and drywall installers — rising faster than in other low-wage jobs as immigration to the United States declines.
  2. In five major American metro areas with declining foreign-born populations between 2010 and 2018, wages are rising by 5% annually, according to research by William Frey of the Brookings Institution.
  3. The Economist attributes wage growth in immigrant-heavy occupations to reduced low-skill migration, with such migrant labour acting as a substitute for domestic workers.

The Economisthas two calculations (of theirs) that are worth noting that suggest immigration has an impact on wages via low skill immigration serving as a substitute for low skilled domestic workers,

“…There are nonetheless scraps of evidence that some workers are benefiting from America’s growing antipathy to immigrants. Gordon Hanson of Harvard University suggests thatif the impact of reduced low-skill migration is showing up anywhere, it will be in three particular occupations: housekeepers, building-and-grounds maintenance workers, and drywall installers. These occupations rely heavily on immigrant labour and the services they provide cannot be traded internationally. Average wages in those occupations are rising considerably faster than wages in other low-paid jobs, according to calculations by The Economist.Intriguing evidence also shows up geographically. According to research by William Frey of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, five big metro areas saw absolute declines in their foreign-born populations in 2010-18. Wages in those areas are now rising by 5% a year, according to our calculations.Cleveland, which is in one such area, has pockets of severe poverty but seems to be doing better than before. Many of the city centre’s astonishingly grand buildings are being converted into luxury lofts for millennials….”

Economist Staff, "Immigration to America is down. Wages are up,"The Economist, February 13, 2020, https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/02/13/immigration-to-america-is-down-wages-are-up

Saturday, February 22, 2020

AI Summary. US occupational deaths have fallen from about 14,000 to 5,100 a year even as the workforce more than doubled, wages including benefits like healthcare and pensions are up 45%, and spending on essentials such as food and clothing has dropped from 42% to 17% of family income.

David Harsanyi New York Post
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Occupational deaths in the US have decreased from ~14k to 5,100 annually since 1970, despite the workforce more than doubling. Americans have also experienced a 45% wage increase since 1964, with medium-household incomes at an all-time high.

Are Americans better off today than fifty years ago?

Core argument: US occupational deaths fell from roughly 14,000 annually in 1970 to 5,100, even as the workforce more than doubled.

Since 1970, occupational deaths in the US have decreased from ~14,000 to 5,100 annually, despite the workforce more than doubling. This decline highlights significant improvements in workplace safety and economic conditions. Additionally, Americans have experienced a 45% wage increase since 1964 when accounting for benefits like healthcare and pensions. Medium-household incomes are at an all-time high, and spending on essentials like food and clothing has dropped from 42% to 17% of family income over the past 50 years. Technological advances and better education have led to safer, more rewarding jobs. Life expectancy has increased by over six years since 1975, and child mortality rates have fallen from 18.8 to 5.7 per 1,000. These data points collectively indicate that Americans are better off today than in the past, contradicting claims of economic stagnation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US occupational deaths fell from roughly 14,000 annually in 1970 to 5,100, even as the workforce more than doubled.
  2. American wages have risen 45% since 1964 when benefits such as healthcare and pensions are counted, and median household incomes stand at an all-time high.
  3. Spending on essentials such as food and clothing fell from 42% to 17% of family income over 50 years, while life expectancy rose more than six years since 1975 and child mortality fell from 18.8 to 5.7 per 1,000.

Occupational deaths have dropped btw 1970 and 2019“…In 1970, around 14,000 workers were killed on the job. That’s somewhere around 10,000 more deaths yearly than the number of those who perished in the entire Iraq War. Although the workforce had more than doubled since then, the number of occupational deaths in the United States has dropped to around 5,100….”

David Harsanyi, "Bernie Sanders is blatantly wrong: We’re far better off than in 1975," New York Post, February 21, 2020, https://nypost.com/2020/02/21/bernie-sanders-is-blatantly-wrong-were-far-better-off-than-in-1975/

Bernie Sanders is blatantly wrong: We’re far better off than in 1975

A record-high number of Americans, 90 percent, say they are satisfied with their personal lives, according to Gallup. And 74 percent are optimistic they will continue being financially satisfied. Needless to say, the United States will never be a utopia, but for the vast majority of its citizens, most things are going in the right direction.

During the Democratic presidential debate this week, Bernie Sanders, lamenting how a once-prosperous society had been hollowed out by capitalism, claimed we are no better off today than we were many years ago. It’s a shame not a single debate moderator ever challenges this farcical assertion. In Sanders’ telling, “people... after 45 years of work are not making a nickel more than they did 45 years ago.”

For those who weren’t alive then, the 1970s were largely a crime-ridden decade of stagnant economics, city bankruptcies, crushing energy prices, sky-high interest rates, institutional rot, garbage and retirement-destroying inflation. Though it was a far better place than the Communist hot spots Sanders praised during those years, it certainly wasn’t ideal.

And a big part of the post-’70s economic boom we’re still experiencing today — the one that certain progressive and some statist right-wingers like to disparage — was propelled by policies that freed Americans from overbearing technocratic oversight, intrusive regulations and stifling taxes that undermined growth.

The alleged “wage stagnation” to which Sanders and others are constantly referring is a myth. For one thing, “wage stagnation” fails to take into account the health-care benefits, pensions, vacations, family leave and other perks now embedded in job packages — somewhere around 30 percent of an employee’s overall benefits.

Once those benefits are added, Americans probably have seen about a 45 percent wage increase since 1964. More important, the amount of time we work to buy things we need is less. What we buy does more, and it’s of higher quality. Does anyone believe that a dollar spent on medical care in 1975 equals a dollar spent today?

Partly because of a worldwide retreat from collectivism, extreme poverty has dramatically decreased. Massive new markets have opened to us. Despite the perception of many, medium-household incomes are at an all-time high. The middle class is growing — especially the upper-middle class.

In the past 50 years, spending on food and clothing as a share of family income has fallen from 42 percent to 17 percent. Your house is probably more expensive than the average house was in 1975, but it’s also more comfortable and safer.

The year Sanders graduated from college, less than 6 percent of his fellow Americans — the majority of them wealthy, very few of them minorities or women — were enrolled in higher education. In 1975, only around 11 percent were enrolled in college. According to the Federal Reserve study, millennials are the most educated generation, with 65 percent of them possessing at least an associate’s degree.

Better education, soaring productivity and technological advances allow an increasing number of Americans to pick vocations that are safer, less monotonous and more rewarding.

In 1970, around 14,000 workers were killed on the job. That’s somewhere around 10,000 more deaths yearly than the number of those who perished in the entire Iraq War. Although the workforce had more than doubled since then, the number of occupational deaths in the United States has dropped to around 5,100.

There’s a decent chance that Sanders’ heart attack would have killed a 78-year-old man in 1975. If not, it would have required dangerous surgery. Despite a small dip recently, life expectancy has skyrocketed in the United States over the past 45 years — adding more than six years since 1975.

Most of these developments, not incidentally, were brought to us by profit-driven companies.

In 1975, the child mortality rate was 18.8 per 1,000. In 2019, it was 5.7. Fatalities due to weather events have plunged. Deaths due to air pollution — surely near its smoggy height in 1975 — have fallen, as well. We have cleaner water and cleaner streets.

Also, you have a supercomputer in your pocket that offers you instant access to all human knowledge.

Yes, some Americans still suffer, and some of our goods and services are more expensive than they once were (usually due to market intervention). But we are, by nearly every quantifiable measure, collectively better off today than ever before.