Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences
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Sunday, September 15, 2019

Maspeth High School's secret to high pass rates is cheating: teachers

AI Summary. Teachers at a New York City high school allege that its 98% graduation rate and 90% state exam pass rate stem from a "no-fail" policy involving grade-fixing and supplying exam answers, with students passed despite poor attendance and failing scores. Faculty report pressure to pass students, and roughly 15 teachers leave annually.

Susan Edelman New York Post
Date Posted:
September 15, 2019
Is Database:
Database

New York Post @SusanEdelman reports Maspeth High School’s “no-fail” policy has led to 98% graduation rate & 90% Regents pass rate, but allegations of systemic cheating raise concerns about integrity of figures.

New York Post @SusanEdelman reports Maspeth High School’s “no-fail” policy has led to 98% graduation rate...

Do high graduation rates reflect grade-fixing rather than student achievement?

Core argument: Maspeth High School reports a 98% graduation rate and a 90% Regents pass rate, figures that teachers allege are produced by a "no-fail" policy involving grade-fixing and supplying students with exam answers.

Maspeth High School's "no-fail" policy has led to a 98% graduation rate and a 90% Regents pass rate, but allegations of systemic cheating raise concerns about the integrity of these figures. Teachers report being pressured to pass students regardless of performance, with some students receiving passing grades despite poor attendance and failing scores. The school allegedly employs tactics such as grade-fixing and providing exam answers to ensure high pass rates. This approach not only undermines educational standards but also raises questions about the economic implications of inflating academic success. The pressure on faculty has resulted in significant turnover, with about 15 teachers leaving annually, potentially affecting the school's operational stability and long-term educational outcomes. Such practices could distort labor market signals, as graduates may lack the skills implied by their credentials, impacting workforce readiness and productivity.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Maspeth High School reports a 98% graduation rate and a 90% Regents pass rate, figures that teachers allege are produced by a "no-fail" policy involving grade-fixing and supplying students with exam answers.
  2. Teachers at Maspeth High School report being pressured to pass students regardless of performance, with some students receiving passing grades despite poor attendance and failing scores.
  3. About 15 teachers leave Maspeth High School each year, turnover attributed to the pressure placed on faculty under the school's no-fail approach.

“…Whistleblowers call it fraud. The secret to the school’s 98% graduation and 90% Regents pass rate, they say, is simple: “Cheat!” Four teachers told The Post that the 2,100-student high school — awarded a prestigious National Blue Ribbon in 2018 by the federal secretary of education — has an unwritten but iron-clad “no-fail policy,” even for kids who repeatedly don’t do the work or even show up. “Teachers are not allowed to fail students,” a staffer said….”

Susan Edelman, "Maspeth High School’s secret to high pass rates is cheating: teachers,"New York Post, September 14, 2020, https://nypost.com/2019/09/14/maspeth-high-schools-secret-to-high-pass-rates-is-cheating-teachers/

Maspeth High School’s secret to high pass rates is cheating: teachers

At highly rated Maspeth High School in Queens, students know they can play hooky, skip course work, flunk tests — and still pass.

They call it the “Maspeth Minimum,” meaning everyone gets at least the minimum grade or score needed to pass or graduate, no matter what.

Whistleblowers call it fraud. The secret to the school’s 98% graduation and 90% Regents pass rate, they say, is simple: “Cheat!”

Four teachers told The Post that the 2,100-student high school — awarded a prestigious National Blue Ribbon in 2018 by the federal secretary of education — has an unwritten but iron-clad “no-fail policy,” even for kids who repeatedly don’t do the work or even show up.

“Teachers are not allowed to fail students,” a staffer said.

One recent Maspeth graduate posted on Instagram about taking Mandarin in 11th grade, writing, “there was no way I should of passed that class.”

But in the end, someone raised the student’s failing grade just high enough to earn a credit.

“At the time, I didn’t believe in the ‘maspeth minimum’ thing but I almost never showed up to class and vividly remember having multiple 0’s on quizzes I never took,” the student wrote. “My average was a 45 and then magically turned into a 65 when my report card came in.”

In other statements and documents brought to City Councilman Robert Holden of Queens, teachers blow the whistle on various alleged grade-fixing scams. Some of the described schemes, Holden said, “could be considered criminal.”

“The ‘gangster’ culture in the school’s leadership needs to be investigated,” Holden, whose district includes Maspeth, wrote to Special Commissioner of Investigation for city schools, Anastasia Coleman.

Principal Khurshid Abdul-Mutakabbi, who founded the school in 2011, did not respond to an email seeking a response.

Among the allegations raised to both Holden and The Post:

Administrators strong-arm and intimidate faculty into passing all students.

Teachers face “retaliatory” evaluations or trumped-up disciplinary charges — and fear losing their jobs — if they don’t cooperate, whistleblowers said.

“You are called in about kids who are failing. The message is, ‘Make sure you pass them,’” a teacher said. “You know you have to change the grade.”

Another teacher recalled a student who didn’t have to worry about flunking even after flubbing his course and blowing off a last-minute “makeup packet.”

“I felt forced to pass him,” his teacher said, admitting, the act of self-protection felt wrong. “I think it’s unethical. I think it’s a disservice to students.”

Fake classes were “taught” last year by Assistant Principals Jesse Pachter and Stefan Singh, teachers charge.

Some of the “classes” were scheduled during phantom periods 00, 9 and 10, records show. Students didn’t attend the nonexistent sessions, but got credits toward graduation, the teachers said. Pachter and Singh did not reply to emails.

Enlarge ImageAssistant Principal Stefan Singh outside the school.Helayne Seidman

Truant students for real classes also got a pass.

Last school year, at least four students were marked absent all day for four to five months, records show, but were allowed to join the June 26 commencement ceremony.

Difficult students are allowed to skip classes and graduate a year early.

This happened last year with two juniors deemed too difficult to handle, teachers said.

On a tape recording obtained by a staffer, one student calls the secret arrangement “illegal.” Another youth says, “They gave up on us.”

A teacher confirmed, “They whisk them out as quickly as possible because they don’t want to deal with them.”

Teachers proctoring state Regents exams allegedly gave kids answers.

They accomplished this in different ways. For instance, kids with special-ed plans can have the questions and answer choices read aloud to them, but some proctors signaled the right answers by their tone of voice, teachers said.

One student wrote in a statement that Maspeth teacher and dean Danny Sepulveda reread the questions at the end of the exam.

“But while he was reading it he was only saying the right answer choice, and this made me uncomfortable because it showed he didn’t believe in me to pass the exam,” the teen wrote.

In another statement, a student wrote that during the math Regents exam in June 2018, Sepulveda and math teacher Chris Grunert “helped me and other kids in my room with answers.”

Enlarge ImageMaspeth teacher Chris GrunertHelayne Seidman

“So in September I was put in the next math class and sat the whole year not knowing how to do anything,” he adds. “I should have been learning the same stuff over again. Now I don’t feel ready at all for what’s next, witch is college, and many others feel like this.”

School staffers changed wrong test answers to right ones, teachers charged. Some school staffers erased incorrect test answers, which are written in pencil, and corrected them, teachers charged.

“I’ve seen teachers literally change answers on a Regents exam,” one said.

Sepulveda has defended giving kids the points they need to pass, telling fellow staffers it’s unfair to hold them back, a whistleblower alleged. Sepulveda allegedly called state tests “the antichrist.”

On Saturday, Sepulveda declined to comment. “I have nothing to say, I apologize,” he told The Post. Grunert could not be reached.

Administrators turned a blind eye to student dishonesty.

“Kids blatantly copy other students’ homework assignments. Copying and cheating are rampant,” a teacher said.

“If you bring it to the dean, nothing happens. Discipline is laughable. There’s no consequences for misbehavior, for disrespecting teachers, or for cheating.”

The allegations threaten to shatter Maspeth HS’s top-notch reputation.

US Education Secretary Betsy DeVos named Maspeth a 2018 National Blue Ribbon School, the highest honor the feds bestow upon schools.

“It’s a facade,” a teacher said of the honor.

Said another, “I had to stifle a laugh.”

Then-state Education Commissioner MaryEllen Elia in June named Maspeth one of 562 Recognition Schools in 2018-19 for “high academic achievement, student growth and graduation rate.”

According to the latest state data available, 99% of all Maspeth students graduated in four years in 2018. The city’s overall average is now 76%.

That year, 73% of Maspeth kids received a Regents diploma, which requires a passing 65 score on five exams. Another 35% received an advanced Regents diploma, which requires more challenging courses and passing nine exams.

But zero students received a “local diploma,” given only to special-ed students who score 55 to 65 on five exams.

Teachers called it “highly unusual” — and suspicious — that all special-ed students got a regular Regents diploma.

While 97% of Maspeth’s general-education students passed their Regents exams, an impressive 61% of special-ed kids did, too. But teachers contend those results were inflated.

The pressure on faculty led to about 15 teachers leaving Maspeth HS in each of the last two school years.

Holden, whose district includes Maspeth, met over the summer with a group of former teachers to discuss the allegations and review records. He then sent a letter dated Aug. 7 to SCI Coleman, urging immediate attention.

Coleman declined to comment, but Holden learned her office referred allegations to the city Department of Education’s own investigative arm.

“We take any allegation of academic misconduct very seriously, and there are strict protocols in place to ensure complaints are reported, investigated and addressed. These allegations are currently under investigation,” said DOE spokeswoman Danielle Filson.

  • Education
    • K-12

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Income gains for US households and workers are much more upbeat than whats being reported by the media

AI Summary. Real median US household income rose 2.7% between 1999 and 2018, but adjusting for smaller average household size, median income per household member rose 5.9%. Holding earners fixed, real median income rose 7.6% for one-earner households and 12% for two-earner households, indicating household size and composition shape measured income trends.

Mark Perry American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
September 17, 2019
Is Database:
Database

@MarkPerry Adjusting for household size, US income gains are robust: 1 earner real median income increased 7.6% btw 1999-2018, 2 earners 12%.

Do household size and composition understate US income gains?

Core argument: Real median US household income rose 2.7% between 1999 and 2018, but adjusting for the decline in average household size to 2.52 persons lifts median income per household member to 5.9%.

Between 1999 and 2018, real median household income increased by only 2.7%, but when adjusting for the decline in average household size to 2.52 persons, median income per household member rose by 5.9%. This adjustment highlights more robust income growth than the unadjusted figures suggest. For households with a fixed number of earners, the data is even more positive: one-earner households saw a 7.6% increase in real median income, nearly three times the overall household increase, while two-earner households experienced a 12% rise, more than four times the overall rate. These statistics underscore the importance of considering household size and composition when evaluating income trends, offering a more optimistic view of economic progress for US households.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Real median US household income rose 2.7% between 1999 and 2018, but adjusting for the decline in average household size to 2.52 persons lifts median income per household member to 5.9%.
  2. Holding the number of earners fixed, one-earner households saw real median income rise 7.6% between 1999 and 2018, nearly three times the overall household gain, while two-earner households rose 12%, more than four times that rate.
  3. Accounting for household size and composition yields a more optimistic picture of US income growth between 1999 and 2018 than unadjusted median household income figures suggest.

"...Between 1999 and 2018, it’s true that real median household income increased by only 2.7%. But adjusting for the ongoing decline in average household size, which fell to an all-time low last year of 2.52 persons, the increase in median household income per household member increased by 5.9% over that period, or more than twice the increase in unadjusted household income (see bottom chart). One way to overcome the evolving and changing nature and size of US households is to compare the real median household incomes over time for households with a fixed, constant number of earners. For households with one earner, their real median income increased by 7.6% between 1999 and 2018 (nearly 3 times the increase of 2.7% for all households) and the increase for two-earner households over that period was 12% (more than four times the increase for all households), see bottom chart above...."Mark Perry, "Income gains for US households and workers are much more upbeat than what’s being reported by the media," American Enterprise Institute, September 13, 2019, http://www.aei.org/publication/income-gains-for-us-households-and-workers-are-much-more-upbeat-than-whats-being-reported-in-the-media/

  • Other Comparison
  • Workforce
    • Wages/Income

Steven Mnuchin begins reforming Americas giant mortgage-guarantee firms

AI Summary. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the US government-backed mortgage-guarantee firms, hold more than $5tn in housing-related securities and guarantees, close to half the total market, up from less than 10% of single-family mortgages decades earlier. That growth reflects an expanding government footprint in American housing finance.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
September 17, 2019
Is Database:
Database

Fannie and Freddie now hold nearly half of the US housing market, with over $5tn in securities and guarantees, reflecting the increasing scale of government support for American housing.

How large has the government footprint in housing finance grown?

Core argument: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold more than $5tn in housing-related securities and guarantees, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. market.

In the 1970s, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than 10% of single-family mortgages in the U.S., but their influence has grown significantly over time. Currently, they hold more than $5tn in housing-related securities and guarantees, accounting for nearly half of the total market. This expansion reflects the increasing scale of government support for the American housing market. The shift underscores the critical role these entities play in the financial system, necessitating reforms to ensure stability and efficiency. As Steven Mnuchin initiates reforms, understanding the macroeconomic implications of such a large government footprint in housing is essential for policymakers and economists. The evolution of Fannie and Freddie's market share highlights the broader trend of government intervention in housing finance, which has significant implications for economic stability and policy development.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold more than $5tn in housing-related securities and guarantees, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. market.
  2. In the 1970s, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac held less than 10% of U.S. single-family mortgages, a share that has grown substantially since.
  3. Steven Mnuchin has begun reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose expansion reflects the increasing scale of government support for the American housing market.

“…In the run-up to the financial crisis, that transfer started to balloon. In the 1970s Fannie and Freddie held less than 10% of single-family mortgages in America. Now they hold more than $5trn of housing-related securities and guarantees,nearly half the total(see chart)….”

Economist Staff, "Steven Mnuchin begins reforming America’s giant mortgage-guarantee firms,"The Economist, September 12, 2019, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/09/12/steven-mnuchin-begins-reforming-americas-giant-mortgage-guarantee-firms

  • Financial Markets
  • Comparisons
    • Historical
  • GDP
    • Housing

The eyes have it

AI Summary. In a study where undergraduates viewed photos of 50 CEOs from the largest US companies, students were able to identify the leaders of the most profitable firms based on appearance alone. The authors argue this suggests people with certain looks are more likely to be promoted rather than being more competent.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
September 17, 2019
Is Database:
Database

Research shows appearance significantly impacts perceptions of ability, influencing career advancement. Students can identify Fortune 1000 CEOs based on looks alone. This bias affects leadership selection & company performance.

Research shows appearance significantly impacts perceptions of ability, influencing career advancement. Students can...

Does appearance influence who gets promoted to top corporate leadership?

Core argument: Undergraduates shown photos of 50 Fortune 1000 CEOs identified the leaders of the most profitable companies from appearance alone.

Research indicates that appearance significantly impacts perceptions of ability, influencing career advancement. A study involving undergraduates who viewed photos of 50 Fortune 1000 CEOs found that students could identify leaders of the most profitable companies based on looks alone. This suggests that individuals with certain appearances are more likely to be promoted, rather than being inherently more competent. The implications for businesses are profound, as this bias could affect leadership selection and company performance. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for policymakers and economists aiming to foster merit-based advancement and reduce appearance-driven biases in the workplace.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Undergraduates shown photos of 50 Fortune 1000 CEOs identified the leaders of the most profitable companies from appearance alone.
  2. Research indicates that appearance shapes perceptions of ability, suggesting people with certain looks are more likely to be promoted rather than being inherently more competent.

"...One possibility is an evolved respect for those with a higher social position. This is not just about clothes or possessions. A further piece of research cited by the authors involved undergraduates who were shown photos of 50 chief executives from the Fortune 1000 list of big firms. Half of these bosses were from the most profitable groups and half from the least profitable. The undergraduates were asked to judge, on looks alone, which executives had qualities such as competence and dominance. Remarkably, the students tended to pick out those executives who led the most successful companies. It is hard to disentangle cause and effect. But it seems more probable that people with a certain type of appearance are likely to get promoted than it is to believe they are innately more competent than everyone else...."

Economist Staff, "The eyes have it,"The Economist, September 12, 2019, https://www.economist.com/business/2019/09/12/the-eyes-have-it

  • Other Comparison
  • Science
    • Evolution/Heredity

How rock-bottom bond yields spread from Japan to the rest of the world

AI Summary. Japan's decades of low interest rates pushed Japanese investors to seek higher returns abroad, making Japan the world's largest creditor nation with net foreign assets above $3tn. That outflow of Japanese capital into European and US markets is argued to have helped spread low bond yields globally.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
September 17, 2019
Is Database:
Database

Japan’s international investment position has evolved significantly over time, with its rock-bottom bond yields influencing global financial markets. By 2019, Japan had become the world’s largest creditor nation, with net foreign assets exceeding $3tn.

Did Japanese capital outflows help spread low bond yields worldwide?

Core argument: Japan became the world's largest creditor nation by 2019, with net foreign assets exceeding $3tn, after decades of low domestic interest rates pushed Japanese investors to seek higher returns abroad.

Japan's international investment position has evolved significantly over time, with its rock-bottom bond yields influencing global financial markets. In the 1990s, Japan's economic stagnation led to a prolonged period of low interest rates, which in turn caused Japanese investors to seek higher returns abroad, increasing their foreign asset holdings. By 2019, Japan had become the world's largest creditor nation, with net foreign assets exceeding $3tn. This shift in investment strategy contributed to the global spread of low bond yields as Japanese capital flowed into foreign markets, driving down yields in Europe and the US. The Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy, including negative interest rates and quantitative easing, further reinforced this trend, prompting other central banks to adopt similar measures. Consequently, Japan's international investment position has not only reshaped its own economy but also exerted a profound influence on global financial dynamics.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Japan became the world's largest creditor nation by 2019, with net foreign assets exceeding $3tn, after decades of low domestic interest rates pushed Japanese investors to seek higher returns abroad.
  2. Japanese capital flowing into foreign markets contributed to the global spread of low bond yields, driving down yields in Europe and the US.
  3. The Bank of Japan's negative interest rates and quantitative easing reinforced the trend toward low yields and prompted other central banks to adopt similar measures.

How rock-bottom bond yields spread from Japan to the rest of the world: Extended Excerpt Image 1


Economist Staff, "How rock-bottom bond yields spread from Japan to the rest of the world,"The Economist, September 14, 2019, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/09/14/how-rock-bottom-bond-yields-spread-from-japan-to-the-rest-of-the-world

  • Savings Glut/Trade Deficit
  • Comparisons
    • Historical
    • Other Comparison

How David Swensen Made Yale Fabulously Rich

AI Summary. Yale's endowment grew from $1.3bn to $29.4bn under a strategy known as the "Yale Model," which diversified into alternative assets such as private equity, hedge funds, and real estate, exceeding 60% of the portfolio. The endowment averaged 12.4% annual returns over three decades, outperforming traditional stock and bond portfolios.

Drake Bennett Bloomberg Businessweek
Date Posted:
September 17, 2019
Is Database:
Database

Yale endowment under Swensen: $1.3bn to $29.4bn (1985-2019), averaging 12.4% annual returns. Alternative assets >60% of portfolio by 2019, pioneering shift from traditional stock/bond mix

Can heavy diversification into alternative assets outperform traditional stock and bond portfolios?

Core argument: Yale's endowment delivered an average annual return of 12.4% over three decades under David Swensen, outperforming traditional stock and bond portfolios and growing from $1.3bn in 1985 to $29.4bn in 2019.

Under David Swensen's leadership, Yale's endowment grew from $1.3bn in 1985 to $29.4bn in 2019, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation. Swensen pioneered the "Yale Model," emphasizing diversification into alternative assets like private equity, hedge funds, and real estate, which constituted over 60% of the portfolio by 2019. This approach yielded an average annual return of 12.4% over three decades, significantly outperforming traditional stock and bond portfolios. The endowment's success not only bolstered Yale's financial stability but also influenced other institutions to adopt similar strategies, reshaping the landscape of institutional investing. The model's focus on long-term growth and risk management has been pivotal in sustaining Yale's academic and research initiatives, demonstrating the profound impact of innovative investment strategies on educational endowments.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Yale's endowment delivered an average annual return of 12.4% over three decades under David Swensen, outperforming traditional stock and bond portfolios and growing from $1.3bn in 1985 to $29.4bn in 2019.
  2. Swensen's "Yale Model" shifted the endowment toward alternative assets including private equity, hedge funds, and real estate, which made up over 60% of the portfolio by 2019.
  3. Yale's endowment success influenced other institutions to adopt similar strategies and helped sustain the university's academic and research initiatives.

How David Swensen Made Yale Fabulously Rich: Extended Excerpt Image 1


Drake Bennett, Janet Lorin and Michael McDonald, "How David Swensen Made Yale Fabulously Rich,"Bloomberg Businessweek,September 11, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-11/david-swensen-made-yale-fabulously-rich-and-changed-endowments

  • Financial Markets
  • Comparisons
    • Historical
    • Sector


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