Edward Conard

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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
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Friday, March 1, 2019

An Analysis of Whether Higher Health Care Spending in the United States versus Europe Is ‘Worth It’ in the Case of Cancer

AI Summary. An analysis of cancer survival rates across the United States and European countries finds wide variation in outcomes, and the authors argue that higher U.S. health care spending is associated with better cancer survival than in Europe.

Tomas Philipson, Michael Eber, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Mitra Corral, Rena Conti and Dana P. Goldman Health Affairs
Date Posted:
March 1, 2019
Is Database:
Database

US healthcare spending may contribute to better cancer survival rates compared to Europe. Understanding these differences is crucial for economists and business professionals as they assess the implications of healthcare spending on national productivity and economic growth.

Does higher U.S. health care spending buy better cancer survival than Europe?

Core argument: The analysis suggests that higher U.S. health care spending may contribute to better cancer survival rates than those in Europe, framing the comparison as a question of whether the added expenditure is "worth it.".

An analysis of cancer survival rates across various countries reveals significant disparities, with northern European nations like Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Scotland, Sweden, and Wales showing varied outcomes. While individual country data is not detailed, the broader comparison highlights the impact of healthcare spending on survival rates. The study suggests that higher healthcare expenditures in the U.S. may contribute to better cancer survival rates compared to Europe. This raises important questions for policymakers about the allocation of healthcare resources and the potential economic benefits of investing in healthcare infrastructure. Understanding these differences is crucial for economists and business professionals as they assess the implications of healthcare spending on national productivity and economic growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The analysis suggests that higher U.S. health care spending may contribute to better cancer survival rates than those in Europe, framing the comparison as a question of whether the added expenditure is "worth it.".
  2. Cancer survival rates vary across countries including Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Scotland, Sweden, and Wales, though the comparison does not detail individual country outcomes.
  3. The cross-country survival comparison raises questions for policymakers about how health care resources are allocated and the potential economic benefits of investing in health care infrastructure.

They replicated this table largely northern European counties (Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Scotland, Sweden, and Wales) however they don't provide individual country level data in the paper, though their Exhibit 4 (attached) shows that they did do the calculations, just didn't include them.

An Analysis of Whether Higher Health Care Spending in the United States versus Europe Is ‘Worth It’ in the Case of Cancer: Extended Excerpt Image 1


An Analysis of Whether Higher Health Care Spending in the United States versus Europe Is ‘Worth It’ in the Case of Cancer: Extended Excerpt Image 2


Tomas Philipson, Michael Eber, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Mitra Corral, Rena Conti and Dana P. Goldman, "An Analysis of Whether Higher Health Care Spending in the United States versus Europe Is ‘Worth It’ in the Case of Cancer,"Health Affairs, April 2012, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3829769/

CEA Staff "The Oppertunity Costs of Socialism," The Council of Economic Advisers," October 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-Opportunity-Costs-of-Socialism.pdf

Random Critical Analysis, "Why everything you have said about the determinants of health expenditure is wrong in one million charts: a response to Noah Smith.," November 19, 2018, https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2018/11/19/why-everything-you-know-about-healthcare-is-wrong-in-one-million-charts-a-response-to-noah-smith/

4) From CEA Cancer survival rates

3) From RCA MRI/Population

2) RCA Health Care expenditure consumption measure

1) From RCA Medical expenditures and # of health care workers

Plz find the source cited for the comparison of cancer survival rates in the Whitehouse study and see if we can view it country by country.

  • Historical
  • Comparisons
    • Cross-country
  • Healthcare/Seniors

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Tax Reform Unleashed the U.S. Economy

AI Summary. The Congressional Budget Office initially projected the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would modestly affect growth, but higher-than-expected growth is now projected to add $1.2tn in federal revenue over a decade, covering about 80% of the Treasury's original estimated cost of the tax cuts. Sustaining a 3% growth rate for another year would fully offset that cost.

Phil Gramm and Michael Solon Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
March 5, 2019
Is Database:
Database

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has significantly stimulated the U.S. economy, with CBO projecting it will cover 80% of its cost through higher-than-expected growth.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has significantly stimulated the U.S. economy, with CBO projecting it will cover 80% of its cost...

Has faster growth offset most of the tax cuts' cost?

Core argument: Higher-than-expected U.S. growth is projected to add $1.2tn to federal revenue over the next decade, covering about 80% of the Treasury's original projected cost of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

The Congressional Budget Office [CBO] initially projected that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [TCJA] would have a modest impact on economic growth, yet recent data indicates a more substantial effect. Higher-than-expected growth is now projected to add an extra $1.2tn to federal revenue over the next decade, effectively covering about 80% of the Treasury's original projected cost of the tax cuts. If the current 3% GDP growth rate is sustained for another year, the economic expansion will have fully offset the cost of the tax cuts. This suggests that the TCJA has significantly stimulated the U.S. economy, contrary to earlier predictions of stagnation. The implications are profound for fiscal policy, as increased revenue generation could support further economic initiatives without exacerbating the federal deficit.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Higher-than-expected U.S. growth is projected to add $1.2tn to federal revenue over the next decade, covering about 80% of the Treasury's original projected cost of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
  2. Sustaining a 3% GDP growth rate for another year would, by this projection, fully offset the cost of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
  3. The Congressional Budget Office initially projected that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would have a modest impact on economic growth, while recent data indicates a more substantial effect.

these guys ~ lifted your metric

"...Before the tax reform took effect the CBO projected that the tax cuts would have only a modest impact on economic growth, and it continues to predict that stagnation lurks around every corner. Yet it now has projected in consecutive annual reports that higher-than-expected growth will add an extra $1.2 trillion to federal revenue in the coming decade, covering about 80% of the Treasury’s original projected cost of the tax cuts. If 3% growth is sustained for another year, the growth surge will have paid for the tax cuts....."
Phil Gramm and Michael Solon, "Tax Reform Unleashed the U.S. Economy,"Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tax-reform-unleashed-the-u-s-economy-11551740837

  • Fiscal Deficits
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Taxation

Inside the Hottest Job Market in Half a Century

AI Summary. A tight U.S. labor market with low unemployment is delivering accelerating real wage growth, including for low-skilled and disadvantaged workers gaining employment in service sectors such as personal-care aides, an occupation projected to add 778,000 jobs. Software publishing wages are growing 5.5% annually versus 3.3% for overall hourly pay.

Eric Morath and Lauren Weber Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
March 5, 2019
Is Database:
Database

The tight labor market is proving advantageous for American workers, with real wage growth accelerating as unemployment remains low. Disadvantaged workers are benefiting from increased employment opportunities & wage gains.

Does a tight labor market raise wages for low-skilled workers?

Core argument: Software publishing wages are growing 5.5% annually, above the 3.3% growth in overall hourly pay, while real wage growth accelerates and unemployment remains low.

The tight labor market is proving advantageous for American workers, with real wage growth accelerating as unemployment remains low. Disadvantaged workers, particularly those with low skills, are benefiting from increased employment opportunities and wage gains. The U.S. is adding jobs in low-skilled service sectors, with occupations like personal-care aides projected to grow by 778,000 jobs by 2026. Only 6% of U.S. workers lack a high school diploma, down from over 40% in the 1960s, highlighting a shift in workforce education levels. Skilled workers in high-tech sectors are also seeing benefits, with software publishing wages growing 5.5% annually, surpassing the overall 3.3% growth in hourly pay. This labor market dynamic supports economic inclusivity and wage growth across various sectors, although risks remain for low-skill workers if economic conditions deteriorate.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Software publishing wages are growing 5.5% annually, above the 3.3% growth in overall hourly pay, while real wage growth accelerates and unemployment remains low.
  2. Personal-care aide jobs are projected to grow by 778,000 by 2026, part of U.S. job additions in low-skilled service sectors where disadvantaged workers are gaining employment opportunities and wages.
  3. Only 6% of U.S. workers lack a high school diploma, down from more than 40% in the 1960s, though risks remain for low-skill workers if economic conditions deteriorate.

"... “If you can hold unemployment at a low level for a long time there are substantial benefits,” Janet Yellen, the former chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, said in an interview. “Real wage growth will be faster in a tight labor market. So disadvantaged workers gain on the employment and the wage side, and to my mind, that’s clearly a good thing.” This was one of Ms. Yellen’s hopes when she was running the Fed from 2014 to 2018; keep interest rates low and let the economy run strong enough to keep driving hiring. In the process, the theory went, disadvantaged workers could be drawn from the fringes of the economy. With luck, inflation wouldn’t take off in the process. Her successor, Jerome Powell, has generally followed the strategy, moving cautiously on rates. “This is a good time to be patient,” Mr. Powell told members of Congress Tuesday.... The plan seems to be paying big dividends now, but will it yield long-term results for American workers? Two risks loom. The first is that the low-skill workers who benefit most from a high-pressure job market are often hit hardest when the job market turns south. Consider what happened to high-school dropouts a little more than a decade ago. Their unemployment rate dropped below 6% in 2006 near the end of a historic housing boom, then shot up to more than 15% when the economy crumbled....The U.S. is adding jobs in low-skilled services sectors. Four of the six occupations the Labor Department expects to add the most jobs through 2026 require, at most, a high-school diploma. Personal-care aide, a job which pays about $11 an hour to help the elderly and disabled, is projected to add 778,000 jobs in the decade ended in 2026, the most of 819 occupations tracked. The department expects the economy to add more than half million food prep workers and more than a quarter million janitors. Those low-skill workers are reaping pay gains in part because there aren’t a lot of people eager to fill low-skill jobs anymore. Only about 6% of U.S. workers don’t hold a high school diploma, down from above 40% in the 1960s, according research by MIT economist David Autor James O. Wilson dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and started selling drugs, which eventually led to a lengthy incarceration. When Mr. Wilson, 59, was released in 2013 he sought out training at Goodwill, where he learned to drive a forklift. Those skills led him to a part-time job at a FedEx Corp. facility at an Indianapolis, Ind., airport. He was promoted to a full-time job in 2017, and is now earning more than $16 an hour. He has a house with his wife and enjoys taking care of his cars, including a prized Cadillac. “I wanted to show FedEx you can take a person, and he can change,” he said. “I want FedEx to say, ‘Do you have any more people like him?’” Skilled workers in high-tech and managerial positions are also benefiting from the high-pressure labor market, particularly in thriving cities. Of 166 sectors that employ at least 100,000 Americans, software publishing pays the highest average wages, $59.81 an hour in the fourth quarter of 2018. Wages in the field grew 5.5% from a year earlier, well outpacing 3.3% overall growth in hourly pay. The average full-time employee in the sector already earns more than $100,000 a year...."

Eric Morath and Lauren Weber, "Inside the Hottest Job Market in Half a Century,"Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-the-hottest-job-market-in-half-a-century-11551436201

  • College
  • Comparisons
    • Historical
    • Skill Level
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • K-12
    • Unemployment/Participation
    • Wages/Income

Aging and the Productivity Puzzle

AI Summary. Research using state-industry aggregate data and employer-employee microdata finds that an older workforce is associated with lower productivity and lower wages for other workers. The authors estimate workforce aging has reduced productivity by 3% to 9%, or 0.25% to 0.7% annually, and project the pattern to persist over the next decade.

Adam Ozimek, Dante DeAntonio and Mark Zandi Moody's Analytics
Date Posted:
March 5, 2019
Is Database:
Database

Aging workforce dampens productivity: Study projects -3-9% output decline next decade. Older worker concentration reduces individual wages, signals broader economic growth challenge.

Does an aging workforce lower productivity and wages for other workers?

Core argument: Research using state-industry aggregate data and employer-employee microdata estimates that an aging workforce has reduced productivity by 3% to 9%, equating to an annual decline of 0.25% to 0.7%.

Research indicates a strong negative effect of an aging workforce on productivity, with data showing that older coworkers can reduce individual wages. State-industry aggregate data and employer-employee microdata reveal a clear relationship between an older workforce and lower productivity, confirmed by ADP data. The aging workforce has contributed to a reduction in productivity by 3% to 9%, equating to an annual decline of 0.25% to 0.7%. This trend is expected to persist over the next decade, suggesting that the share of workers over 65 negatively impacts wages for all other workers, potentially slowing economic growth. Robustness tests using geographic and firm fixed effects support these findings, highlighting the significant macroeconomic implications of an aging population on productivity and wage dynamics.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Research using state-industry aggregate data and employer-employee microdata estimates that an aging workforce has reduced productivity by 3% to 9%, equating to an annual decline of 0.25% to 0.7%.
  2. The research indicates that a higher share of workers over 65 lowers wages for all other workers, with older coworkers associated with reduced individual wages, a relationship also found in ADP data.
  3. Robustness tests using geographic and firm fixed effects support the negative relationship between workforce age and productivity, a trend the research expects to persist over the next decade and potentially slow economic growth.

"...Research on the effect of an aging population on economic growth has tended to focus on labor force participation and the dependency ratio, and the limited work that has examined the effect of aging on productivity remains inconclusive. This analysis contributes to the aging and productivity literature and finds a strong negative effect of aging on productivity using both state-industry aggregate data and matched employeremployee microdata. The aggregate data show a clear relationship between an older workforce and lower productivity at the state-industry level, in both cross-section and panel models. The results are confirmed using employer-employee linked data from private sector human resource company ADP that show having older coworkers reduces an individual’s wages. Robustness tests include three-digit ZIP code geographic fixed effects and firm fixed effects for a sample of large nationwide firms. The results suggest that between a quarter and full percentage point of the slowing in annual productivity growth in recent years may be due to aging, an effect that is likely to persist for the next decade... Given this, the aging of the workforce has reduced productivity by between 3% and 9%, equal to between 0.25% and 0.7% per annum.."..."

Adam Ozimek, Dante DeAntonio and Mark Zandi, "Aging and the Productivity Puzzle," Moody's Analytics, September 4, 2018, https://ma.moodys.com/rs/961-KCJ-308/images/2018-09-04-Aging-and-the-Productivity-Puzzle.pdf

  • Demographics
  • Comparisons
    • Historical
  • Workforce
    • Unemployment/Participation
    • Wages/Income

Should the United States Run a Trade Surplus?

AI Summary. The author argues that persistent U.S. trade deficits force a choice between higher unemployment and rising debt, and that the U.S. should tax inflows of risk-averse foreign capital rather than impose tariffs or quotas. He estimates the U.S. absorbs 40–50% of the world's excess savings, producing a current account deficit of about 3% of GDP.

Michael Pettis China Financial Markets
Date Posted:
March 5, 2019
Is Database:
Database

@michaelxpettis suggests taxing imports of risk-averse capital into the U.S. rather than imposing tariffs or quotas on trade.

Should the US tax foreign capital inflows instead of imposing tariffs?

Core argument: Michael Pettis argues the U.S. absorbs 40–50% of the world's excess savings through its open capital markets, producing a current account deficit of roughly 3% of GDP and implying a distortion of 5–6% of U.S. GDP.

The persistent U.S. trade deficits are unnatural and force the country into accepting either higher unemployment or increased debt. To address this, Michael Pettis suggests taxing imports of risk-averse capital into the U.S. rather than imposing tariffs or quotas on trade. The U.S. absorbs 40-50% of the world's excess savings due to its open capital markets, which are largely determined by foreign conditions. This results in a current account deficit of ~3% of GDP, implying a distortion of 5-6% of U.S. GDP. To escape this condition, the U.S. must reduce its trade deficit by managing foreign capital inflows, as the country cannot export excess savings due to high income inequality and foreign savings inflows. This approach could help transform the U.S. from a deficit economy to a surplus one, aligning it with other rich, capital-exporting countries.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Michael Pettis argues the U.S. absorbs 40–50% of the world's excess savings through its open capital markets, producing a current account deficit of roughly 3% of GDP and implying a distortion of 5–6% of U.S. GDP.
  2. Pettis proposes taxing inflows of risk-averse foreign capital into the U.S. rather than imposing tariffs or quotas on trade, arguing that persistent trade deficits force the country to accept either higher unemployment or increased debt.
  3. Pettis contends the U.S. cannot export excess savings because of high income inequality and foreign savings inflows, and that managing capital inflows could shift the U.S. from a deficit economy to a surplus one like other rich, capital-exporting countries.

"......The United States has been running trade deficits for so long that we have forgotten how strange this is, and if we think about it at all we tend simply to dismiss the problem as a consequence of American profligacy. But even if profligacy were truly a problem, in a well-functioning world of global trade, if a country like the United States were to run deficits, after a fairly short time these deficits would force changes (mostly monetary but also structural) in the U.S. economy that would eliminate the deficits. Persistent U.S. trade deficits are unnatural, and there has to be a reason they exist. What is more, these U.S. trade deficits force the United States into accepting either higher unemployment or a more rapid increase in debt. If the country wants to escape this condition, the United States must reduce its trade deficit with the world, but not by addressing the trade deficit directly through import tariffs or quotas. Instead, the United States must address foreign capital inflows directly, perhaps by taxing them..... all or most investment falls into one of two categories. The first category consists of projects whose value is not sensitive to marginal changes in demand, perhaps because they bring about very evident and significant increases in productivity, or because the economy suffers from significant underinvestment. The second category consists of projects whose value varies as a function of future expected changes in demand. I discuss this topic further in the “Where Might This Argument Be Wrong?” section of a previous blog post. I show in that post that in economies like the United States, in which the profitability of most investments is a function of changes in demand (the second category) rather than in the cost of borrowing (the first category), rising income inequality and higher ex-ante savings can actually result in less investment rather than more. The point is that U.S. income inequality could increase the gap between savings and investment by even more than we might otherwise assume. Not only does it cause the savings of the rich to rise faster than investment, but it might actually cause investment to decline.This isn’t just theory. The increase in the savings share of German GDP after the Hartz reforms was matched by a reduction in the investment share, not the expected increase. And while it is too early to make the same claim about the Trump tax cuts of December 2017, which were supposed to boost investment by boosting savings, so far they seem to have done nothing of the sort.. Be that as it may, whether investment actually declines or merely grows more slowly than the decline in consumption, in a closed system like the global economy, savings and investment are by definition equal. This implies that in any country if a policy causes savings in one part of the economy to rise and investment to rise more slowly, or even decline, the domestic imbalance between savings and investment can be resolved in one (or some combination) of only two ways:1) The excess savings can be exported, in the form of capital account deficits along with the corresponding trade and current account surpluses. 2) Something else must happen to cause savings in another part of the economy to drop, so in the aggregate there is no net increase in savings. It is clear that the first of these two conditions does not apply to the United States. The country has no control over its ability to import or export savings. Its capital account is largely determined abroad. Why? Because the United States has deep, completely open, and highly flexible capital markets and very strong governance, so the country ultimately absorbs a large part of the excess savings of the rest of the world—roughly 40-50 percent of the sum of foreign capital account deficits in recent years—the extent of which is only partially determined by domestic U.S. conditions or policies. As long as the United States runs a capital account surplus, and as long as this surplus is determined by foreign conditions and policies the country largely cannot control, the United States cannot be a net exporter of any excess savings accumulated through its high level of income inequality. This means the second condition must apply. This is not a theoretical proposal but rather an accounting identity that cannot be broken: if the United States cannot export the excess of savings over investment, it cannot have these excess savings. That being the case, something else must happen to cause savings in another part of the U.S. economy to drop by enough to absorb the sum of excess U.S. savings caused by income inequality and excess foreign savings imported into the United States. This has been the hardest part for even trade experts to understand, but there are many ways in which conditions that drive up savings in one part of the U.S. economy can drive them down elsewhere. I discuss some of these ways in the “What Drives Down Savings” section of my previous blog post. What this all means is that, in one way or another, distortions (either in the U.S. economy or abroad), have transformed the United States from what should have been a reasonably persistent surplus economy into the world’s largest deficit economy. As I have explained before (including here, here, here, and here), ultimately the United States must respond to the distortions created by net capital inflows, and the consequent current account deficit, with either more unemployment or more debt. This explains the real relationship between the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit: if the United States is to avoid higher unemployment, either the U.S. government must run a fiscal deficit or U.S. authorities, including the Federal Reserve, must create conditions under which private American (mainly households) run deficits and raise debt levels. The extent of the distortion can be enormous. Assuming that the United States should normally run a current account surplus of roughly 2-3 percent of GDP, in line with that of other rich, capital-exporting countries and substantially lower than the UK’s surplus at the end of the nineteenth century, the American current account deficit of roughly 3 percent of GDP implies a distortion equal to 5-6 percent of U.S. GDP, or a very high 1 to 1.5 percent of global GDP. This suggests that, while the United States currently absorbs 40-50 percent of the world’s current account deficits, it may be absorbing up to two-thirds of all the world’s excess savings...."

Michael Pettis, "Should the United States Run a Trade Surplus?,"China Financial Markets, March 4, 2019, https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/78496

  • Savings Glut/Trade Deficit


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