Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Monday, November 26, 2018

AI Summary. The National Climate Assessment estimates that a 9°F rise in global average temperatures would reduce U.S. gross domestic product in 2090 by 4%, plus or minus 2%, relative to a world without human influence on the climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts a 5°F rise at roughly 3% of global output in 2100.

Steven Koonin Wall Street Journal
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According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a global temperature rise of 5°F would reduce annual GDP growth by 0.05 percentage point.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a global temperature rise of 5°F would reduce annual GDP growth...

How large is the projected economic cost of rising temperatures?

Core argument: The National Climate Assessment's final chapter estimates that a 9°F rise in global average temperatures, beyond the 1.4°F recorded since 1880, would reduce U.S. GDP in 2090 by 4% plus or minus 2% relative to a no-human-influence baseline.

The National Climate Assessment's numbers, uncertain as they are, turn out not to be all that alarming. The final figure of the final chapter shows that an increase in global average temperatures of 9 degrees Fahrenheit (beyond the 1.4-degree rise already recorded since 1880) would directly reduce the U.S. gross domestic product in 2090 by 4%, plus or minus 2%—that is, the GDP would be about 4% less than it would have been absent human influences on the climate. That “worst-worst case” estimate assumes the largest plausible temperature rise and only known modes of adaptation. Buried in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2014 report is a chart showing that a global temperature rise of 5 degrees Fahrenheit would have a global economic impact of about 3% in 2100—negligibly diminishing projected global growth over that period to 385% from 400%. To put it another way, the projected reduction in the average annual growth rate is a mere 0.05 percentage point. The U.S. economy in 2090 would be no more than two years behind where it would have been absent man-caused climate change.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The National Climate Assessment's final chapter estimates that a 9°F rise in global average temperatures, beyond the 1.4°F recorded since 1880, would reduce U.S. GDP in 2090 by 4% plus or minus 2% relative to a no-human-influence baseline.
  2. That 4% figure is a "worst-worst case" assuming the largest plausible temperature rise and only known modes of adaptation, leaving the U.S. economy in 2090 no more than two years behind where it would otherwise have been.
  3. A chart in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2014 report shows a 5°F global temperature rise producing a global economic impact of about 3% in 2100, trimming projected growth to 385% from 400%—0.05 percentage point off average annual growth.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

AI Summary. An analysis of median household income by birth cohort and age finds that rising educational attainment accounts for much of the income progress across successive birth cohorts, with some generations' incomes converging at middle age once education is accounted for.

Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi
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Education plays a crucial role in sustaining income growth over time. Without adjusting for education, some generations’ incomes reconverge at middle age.

Does rising educational attainment explain income gains across generations?

Core argument: Ernie Tedeschi's analysis of median household income by birth cohort and age finds that rising educational attainment accounts for much of the income progress observed across successive birth cohorts.

Adjusting for education, Ernie Tedeschi's analysis reveals that rising educational attainment significantly drives income progress across birth cohorts. Without this adjustment, some generations' incomes reconverge at middle age, indicating that education plays a crucial role in sustaining income growth over time. This suggests that policy efforts to enhance educational access and quality could have long-term positive effects on household income trajectories. The data underscores the importance of education as a key factor in economic mobility and highlights potential disparities in income growth among different cohorts if educational advancements are not maintained.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Ernie Tedeschi's analysis of median household income by birth cohort and age finds that rising educational attainment accounts for much of the income progress observed across successive birth cohorts.
  2. Without adjusting for education, median household incomes of some birth cohorts reconverge at middle age, according to Tedeschi's analysis.

Ernie Tedeschi adjust the Pew numbers for education and finds that income progress is driven by rising educational attainment, absent that some generations reconverge at middle age

Ernie Tedeschi, "Median Household Income by Birth Cohort and Age (Education-Adjusted)," @ernietedeschi, December 11, 2018, https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1072701599322128384

AI Summary. Average weekly homework hours for U.S. high-school students rose from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016 while K-8 hours held at 4.7, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Many school districts are now limiting, ungrading, or eliminating homework, citing student wellness and family time, while critics argue this weakens academic reinforcement.

Tawnell Hobbs Wall Street Journal
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US school districts are reducing or eliminating homework to alleviate stress & promote reading & family engagement. Average weekly hours high-school students spent on homework rose from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016

Are school districts cutting homework to prioritize student well-being?

Core argument: U.S. high-school students' average weekly homework hours rose from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016, while K-8 students' hours held at 4.7, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

The average weekly hours high-school students spent on homework rose from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016, while K-8 students' hours remained at 4.7, according to the U.S. Department of Education. In response, many U.S. school districts are reducing or eliminating homework, citing concerns over student wellness and family time. Ridgefield Public Schools in Conn. and Lafayette Parish in La. have implemented policies limiting or not grading homework, aiming to alleviate stress and promote reading and family engagement. Critics argue this may hinder academic reinforcement, as seen in Lafayette where some students skip ungraded homework, impacting math scores. However, proponents like Norfolk Public Schools in Neb. emphasize reducing stress and providing in-school support for struggling students. The shift reflects a broader trend towards balancing academic demands with overall student well-being.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. high-school students' average weekly homework hours rose from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016, while K-8 students' hours held at 4.7, according to the U.S. Department of Education.
  2. Many U.S. school districts, including Ridgefield Public Schools in Connecticut and Lafayette Parish in Louisiana, are limiting or not grading homework, citing student wellness, stress, family time, and reading.
  3. Critics argue reduced homework hinders academic reinforcement, pointing to Lafayette Parish, where some students skip ungraded assignments, affecting math scores, while Norfolk Public Schools in Nebraska emphasizes in-school support for struggling students.

"...The average number of hours high-school students spent per week on homework increased from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016, the latest year available from the U.S. Department of Education. The average hours for students in K-8 stayed flat at 4.7 during those years....."

Tawnell Hobbs, "Down With Homework, Say U.S. School Districts," Wall Street Journal, December 12, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-homework-its-the-new-thing-in-u-s-schools-11544610600

Down With Homework, Say U.S. School Districts

School districts across the country are banning homework, forbidding it on certain days or just not grading it, in response to parents who complain of overload and some experts who say too much can be detrimental.

A new policy in Ridgefield Public Schools in Ridgefield, Conn., places nightly time limits on homework for most students. It is banned on weekends, school vacations and some other days off for elementary and middle-school students, and isn’t calculated into their overall grades.

Lafayette Parish School System in Louisiana told teachers not to grade homework for grades 2-12 starting this school year. Students in grades K-1 already didn’t receive grades.

The goal of the changes is to give students more time to read, sleep and spend time with family, especially at the elementary level, school administrators say. “Student wellness is becoming a much larger issue,” said Mark Toback, superintendent of Wayne Township Public Schools in Wayne, N.J., which had its first homework-free weekend in October with two more scheduled.

The average number of hours high-school students spent per week on homework increased from 6.8 in 2007 to 7.5 in 2016, the latest year available from the U.S. Department of Education. The average hours for students in K-8 stayed flat at 4.7 during those years.

Homework changes have been met with concern by some teachers, who say it takes away a tool to reinforce the day’s lesson, and parents who feel left out of the academic process.

Kevin Fulton withdrew his daughter from the Cypress-Fairbanks Independent School District in Houston after she spent her fifth-grade year at Yeager Elementary without homework because the school stopped giving it. She now attends a private school.

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“In my house, we’re very hands-on and homework is a way to determine if our child is falling behind,” he said. “I just think it takes parents out of the equation.”

The Cypress-Fairbanks district said Yeager and other schools with no-homework rules can still assign personalized homework to struggling students.

Kauffman Leadership Academy, a public charter school in Cleburne, Texas, with grades 5-12, holds classes from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. to fit in needed lessons to prevent sending work home. The school opened in 2016 with the intent of having no homework after hearing from parents of prospective students.

“We just heard a lot of parents complaining about how much the homework was eating into their family life,” Superintendent Theresa Kauffman said.

“It’s amazing to be able to go home after a long day at school and not have anything to do, just be able to relax,” Kauffman student Karissa Olsen, 14 years old, said during a snack break that the school gives due to the long day.

Harris Cooper, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Duke University who has studied homework for over 25 years, found that homework has little impact on elementary students. Junior-high students showed higher achievement when doing homework up to 60 to 90 minutes a night and high-school students up to two hours. There were no additional positive effects after those time frames.

Dr. Cooper said those who go over appropriate limits could become frustrated and lose interest in the subject area. It also could crowd out other activities, such as athletics, music and volunteer work, he said.

The superintendent of Marion County Public Schools, a 43,000-student district in central Florida, told teachers to stop assigning “meaningless homework” for elementary students and instead substitute at least 20 minutes a night of reading, said spokesman Kevin Christian. More students are reading as a result, he said.

Jonathan Cole, a high-school teacher in Lafayette Parish, said some teachers in the district are unhappy with the homework-grading ban. A good number of students skip homework because it isn’t going to be graded, he said.

“We’re seeing some drops in some scores related to math, and that’s a skill that does benefit from some practice,” said Mr. Cole, who is also president of a local educator association.

Even so, parent Laurie Lightfoot supports the new policy. “These kids have so much homework at younger and younger ages. And heaven forbid if they have after-school activities or want to spend time with family,” she said. Her 13-year-old daughter Madison said the change “does relieve a little stress.” Some students who aren’t turning in homework are being urged to do so by teachers, she said.

Kathy Aloisio, Lafayette’s director of elementary schools, said grades should reflect a student’s mastery of a subject, not homework, which some students can get help with at home. “Are we grading what the parents did, or are we grading what the child did?” she said.

Norfolk Public Schools in Nebraska dropped homework for elementary school children last year.

“It was pretty common that elementary students would take home 30 math problems every night, and might have additional homework after that,” said Superintendent Jami Jo Thompson. “It was a lot of stress on the child and the family.”

Dr. Thompson said students who are struggling are getting the help they need in school instead of sending the work home with them to parents, who have been supportive of the homework change.

Now, parents with children at the schools in northeastern Nebraska, which go up to fourth grade, are asked to read with their children and practice math skills.