Macro Roundup: Friday, December 29, 2017

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous

Scott Calvert Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: December 26, 2017
Is Database:: Database

@ScottCalvert@WSJ 1% of a city’s streets produce 25% of its crime, while 5% of streets produce half of the crime.

The concentration of crime in urban areas is stark, with 1% of city streets accounting for 25% of crime and 5% accounting for half, illustrating the "law of crime concentration." This pattern is evident in cities like Chicago, where 771 murders in one year marked a 58% increase from 2015, with nearly half occurring in just five neighborhoods. These areas face exacerbated poverty, unemployment, and vacant housing, contributing to the crime surge. Conversely, cities like Los Angeles have seen long-term reductions in violence through community policing and gentrification. Economic investments, such as Chicago's $95m police-training center and $10.5m in data-driven technology, aim to address these disparities. However, the persistence of crime hotspots underscores the need for targeted economic and social interventions to mitigate urban crime effectively.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The "law of crime concentration" holds that 1% of city streets account for 25% of crime and 5% account for half.
Chicago recorded 771 murders in one year, a 58% increase from 2015, with nearly half occurring in five neighborhoods marked by poverty, unemployment, and vacant housing.
Los Angeles has seen long-term reductions in violence through community policing and gentrification, while Chicago has committed $95m to a police-training center and $10.5m to data-driven technology.

“…George Mason University criminologist David Weisburd said his research has shown that about 1% of city streets produce 25% of a city’s crime, and 5% of the streets produce half the crime. He calls it the “law of crime concentration.”….”

Max Rust, Scott Calvert and Shibani Mahtani, "Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous," Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2017,https://www.wsj.com/articles/murder-in-america-what-makes-cities-more-dangerous-1514293200

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous

Murder in America is deeply local.

Homicides in the U.S. rose about 9% last year, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and more than one-third of the increase was concentrated in neighborhoods where just one-third of Chicago residents live. Meanwhile, improvements in areas where 30% of Los Angeles residents live accounted for one quarter of the 13% drop in U.S. murders between 2002 and 2014.

The Wall Street Journal analyzed the locations of thousands of homicides in four cities: Chicago and Baltimore, where violence has risen to or near 1990s levels in the past two years; and Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., where meaningful declines in violence have been sustained since the 1990s.

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous: Extended Excerpt Image 1

The data show that the neighborhoods where killings have soared

Part II: Murder in America — What Makes Cities Safer

VIEW IN DEPTH

in Chicago and Baltimore share worsening poverty, high numbers of vacant houses, and a lighter street presence by police following officers’ high-profile killings of young black men. In Washington and Los Angeles, gang interventions and community policing, which seeks closer contact with residents to gain trust and even information in to address crime, have helped produce long-term reductions in murders. Gentrification in the nation’s capital also has played an important role in keeping violence down.

George Mason University criminologist David Weisburd said his research has shown that about 1% of city streets produce 25% of a city’s crime, and 5% of the streets produce half the crime. He calls it the “law of crime concentration.”

WHERE GANGS AND DRUGS RULE

Amarley Coggins remembers the first time he dealt heroin, discreetly approaching a car coming off an interstate highway and into West Garfield Park, the neighborhood where he grew up on Chicago’s west side.

He was 12 years old and had just been recruited into a gang by his older brothers and cousin.

A decade later, he sits in Cook County jail, held without bail and awaiting trial on three cases, including felony drug charges and possession of a weapon.

“I have a lot of friends who didn’t make it to 22,” said Mr. Coggins, who hasn’t entered a plea. “I want to stay alive for my son and my family.”

Violence in Chicago erupted last year, with the city recording 771 murders—a 58% jump from 2015. The third largest city in the U.S. with 2.7 million people, Chicago had more murders than New York and Los Angeles combined.

Almost half of the increase in Chicago came from five neighborhoods, including West Garfield Park, meaning they were at least as violent as in the 1990s when drug wars fueled by the crack-cocaine epidemic were raging through black neighborhoods.

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Those neighborhoods also experienced a greater rise in unemployment, poverty and vacant homes—and saw a bigger decline in median income—compared with parts of Chicago where homicides fell or remained the same.

“People see these empty buildings standing there, over four years on, and it is just a reminder that the city has turned their back on them,” said Danton Floyd, a community activist in West Garfield Park.

Chicago city officials say that they are making strategic investments in ailing neighborhoods. They point to a $95 million police-training center in West Garfield Park, public-transit improvements on Chicago’s south side and efforts to get major corporations such as Whole Foods and Wal-Mart to invest.

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous: Extended Excerpt Image 3

The city also has spent $10.5 million in data-driven technology centers for the police. The centers integrate tools such as predictive-policing technology—including a network of surveillance cameras—and gun-detection software in the city’s eight most violent districts, including the one that oversees West Garfield Park. City officialssay the centers have contributed to a drop in murders citywide this year.

But West Garfield Park is still awash with drugs, as demand in recent years has been driven up by white suburban and rural consumers of heroin and opioids, according to police, drug dealers and residents. And a lot of indiscriminate killing is attributed to small, fiercely competitive gangs that have devolved from more powerful street organizations of the 1990s but lack the earlier gangs’ discipline in the use of violence.

On a recent afternoon, a dispute between two families over their children playing too loudly in the yard escalated into a shooting with someone hit, said Kevin Johnson, commander of the police district that includes West Garfield Park. One of the families had gang ties, so police braced for retaliatory violence.

“Before, it was unheard of that there were female victims, children shot; it was unheard of that there were retaliatory shootings at churches,” he said.

The neighborhood’s proximity to Interstate 290, long known as the “heroin highway,” has fueled the drug wars, said Cmdr. Johnson.

Police say at least 30 gangs operate within a roughly four-mile radius of West Garfield Park. They all compete for prime turf in the drug trade, including at gas stations and liquor stores, where a seller can make more than $800 a day.

Wearing a loosefitting jumpsuit at the Cook County jail, Mr. Coggins said gas stations are valuable territory to gangs because they are easily accessible for the mostly white customers rolling off I-290 into West Garfield Park.

“They know they stick out like a sore thumb here, some even come in the Mercedes and BMWs,” he said. “They want to get in and out quick.”

Of his involvement in drugs, he says: “I felt like I had to do it. And the money came so quick, you feel me?”

He can’t shake the memory of his partner on the streets, 20-year old Mario Cousins—“Little Rio”—who was killed last year after a rival gang member shot him in the head as he was sitting on a porch and left his body there for the block to see.

Mr. Coggins said he planned to move to the suburbs when he is released from jail. “The only way I could get out of that life is if I moved out of my area,” he said.

WHERE POLICE TRUST IS ERODING

As he drove through a series of West Baltimore neighborhoods, former deputy police commissioner Tony Barksdale took note of an open-air drug market, a heroin hawker on the sidewalk and a group of young men loitering at North and Pennsylvania avenues.

But he didn’t see many police officers.

“Baltimore City has a lot of people walking around that have committed homicides and shootings, and they’re emboldened now,” said Mr. Barksdale, who served on the police force for two decades before his 2013 retirement.

This city of 615,000 is enduring its third year of near-record violence, as police struggle to rein in one of the highest murder rates in the U.S.

Until a few years ago, violence had been edging lower citywide and in a collection of West Baltimore neighborhoods. But in 2015, violence rose, and it has stayed historically high. In the area to the west of North and Pennsylvania, homicides soared 89% during 2015 and 2016 from the two prior years, far outpacing the 49% citywide jump in that span.

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous: Extended Excerpt Image 4

Some community leaders and former police officials say police have pulled back from a more proactive approach on the street since April 2015, when riots erupted after Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man, died from a broken neck he sustained in a police van. Officers had chased Mr. Gray from North and Pennsylvania, a known drug corner, and arrested him for allegedly possessing an illegal knife.

A police department spokesman said foot patrols have increased because now officers are mandated to walk through neighborhoods in the first months of field training, which wasn’t the case a few years ago.

Baltimore Police Commissioner Kevin Davis, in charge since July 2015, also said violent criminals feel emboldened. He said judges too often give offenders who use guns suspended prison sentences.

Ericka Alston-Buck, who runs a youth center blocks from where Mr. Gray was arrested in 2015, says the violence is tied to poverty that hasn’t eased since the riots. “You have to be here to feel the blight, the vacant houses, the cat-sized rodents that run through the streets, the open-air drug markets, prostitution, no grocery store,” she said.

Jacqueline Caldwell, a local resident who leads a nonprofit umbrella group that includes several west-side community associations, said the police have become nonexistent over the past two years. “I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out we need more police on the street, more community involvement with the police,” Ms. Caldwell said.

John Skinner, a former deputy police commissioner who retired in 2014, said after the riots, police feared “another triggering effect.” He said while he thinks the retreat from proactive policing was brief, its effects were lasting.

“Violence can escalate really, really rapidly. When it occurs it’s tough to get that stabilization back,” he said.

Murder in America: What Makes Cities More Dangerous: Extended Excerpt Image 5

Since the unrest, arrest numbers in the city are down. The police force is also at reduced strength because of retirements and resignations that have left it with 2,500 sworn officers, or about 500 fewer than in 2012. And eight officers were indicted this year on federal charges that included robbing citizens; five have pleaded guilty.

“You look at Baltimore’s crime numbers, that’s criminals taking advantage of weakness,” Mr. Barksdale said. He added: “I am against mass arrests, but you still need arrests.”

The police-union president said in July that some officers remained hesitant on duty, because the six officers involved in Mr. Gray’s case faced criminal prosecution, even though none was convicted.

Murders are often retaliatory strikes driven by “guns, gangs and drugs,” the department spokesman said, adding that Baltimore homicide victims have 12 arrests on average. In a positive sign, he said, citizen tips about homicides are up, and police are clearing more homicides.

Early this year Baltimore officials agreed to a sweeping overhaul of the police department. That followed a 2016 U.S. Justice Department report alleging unconstitutional policing disproportionately targeted African-Americans. Mr. Davis says the result will be an improved police force that will earn back public trust.

Sources: Chicago Police Department, Baltimore Police Department, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia, Los Angeles Police Department (homicide locations); FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (annual homicide rates); Brown University Longitudinal Tract Database, Census Bureau (demographics)

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts

Paul Overberg Wall Street Journal

Date Posted:: December 29, 2017
Is Database:: Database

Rural America faces significant challenges, with 1 in 7 Americans living in rural counties where populations are aging & economic opportunities are dwindling @poverberg @WSJ.

The economic divide between urban and rural America is stark, with rural areas facing significant challenges. Approximately 1 in 7 Americans live in rural counties, where populations are aging, and economic opportunities are dwindling. Rural areas have seen a rise in deaths by suicide and maternal mortality, while bank lending and business startups lag behind urban counterparts. The recession exacerbated these issues, with rural net worth declining as urban areas rebounded. Education gaps persist, with fewer rural residents holding bachelor's degrees, limiting job prospects and income growth. Rural poverty rates remain higher than urban areas, compounded by higher disability rates among older, less-educated workers. The decline in rural healthcare services, including maternity care, further widens the gap. Meanwhile, urban areas benefit from better healthcare outcomes and economic opportunities, highlighting the growing urban-rural divide.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

About 1 in 7 Americans live in rural counties, where populations are aging, economic opportunities are shrinking, and bank lending and business startups lag urban counterparts.
Rural areas have seen rising deaths by suicide and maternal mortality alongside declining healthcare services including maternity care, while urban areas show better healthcare outcomes.
Rural net worth declined during the recession as urban areas rebounded, and rural poverty rates remain higher than urban ones, compounded by fewer bachelor's degrees and higher disability rates among older, less-educated workers.

Paul Overberg, "The Divide Between America’s Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Towns—in 20 Charts,"Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-divide-between-americas-prosperous-cities-and-struggling-small-townsin-20-charts-1514543401

The Divide Between America’s Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Towns—in 20 Charts

About 1 in 7 Americans lives in rural parts of the country—1,800 counties that sit outside any metropolitan area. A generation ago, most of these places had working economies, a strong social fabric and a way of life that drew a steady stream of urban migrants. Today, many are in crisis. Populations are aging, more working-age adults collect disability, and trends in teen pregnancy and divorce are diverging for the worse from metro areas. Deaths by suicide and in maternity are on the rise. Bank lending and business startups are falling behind. Here is the data that tells the story.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 1

For decades, as migration to America’s small towns rose and fell, they barely managed to keep growing. Rural families formed and had just enough children to offset losses from those who left and those who died.

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More recently, fewer young adults stayed or returned home after college or from distant jobs. That meant fewer marriages and fewer children. City-weary arrivals dwindled as well, meaning populations have shrunk.

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In the 1990s, a few rural areas began to record more deaths than births. Then the deep recession of 2007-2009 lowered U.S. birthrates and slowed migration and immigration. Collectively, all of rural America now faces the grim prospect of natural decrease, meaning more deaths than births over time.

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Few immigrants are moving to rural areas. Most seek work and neighbors in places that are familiar, which largely means urban areas. This has opened a cultural gulf between diverse, growing cities and mostly white, aging small towns.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 5

Social trends have weakened rural families. Couples marry earlier in rural areas, but marriages can founder in a shaky economy. Among women ages 20 to 34 who live in rural areas, 6.5% are divorced, compared with 3.6% of their counterparts in large cities. One reason is that almost two-thirds of city women in that age group have never been married, compared with just half of rural women. Later marriage means fewer opportunities for divorce.

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A continuing public-health campaign to limit teenage births has produced a related urban-rural gap. The campaign includes education programs and access to contraceptives. While teen births are falling around the U.S., they are falling much faster in urban areas, where the campaigns have been more effective.

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One factor behind falling teen birthrates: Rising college attendance by women. In 2015, for the first time, the share of women ages 25 and older who held at least a bachelor’s degree topped that of men. Women earn 57% of new bachelor’s degrees. This tide has risen most sharply in large cities and their suburbs.

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Education gaps have long-term consequences. More jobs—especially full-time jobs with benefits—require a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Without a larger share of college graduates, small towns have little hope of closing the income gap.

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The recession hammered Americans’ net worth, which had been slipping for years in rural areas. For many families, the bulk of their net worth is in home equity. The housing-market boom and collapse hit fast-growing suburbs hardest but didn’t spare small towns.

The stock-market boom and resurgent urban-home prices have largely benefited upper-income households, widening the urban-rural gap in family net worth.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 10

The violent crime rate for major cities has fallen enough to match that of small towns, wiping out much of the “safety premium” that rural America once enjoyed. This shift weakens one of the motives to move from urban to rural areas, especially for families with children.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 11

Circumstances behind rural poverty vary—for instance, among American Indian reservations, migrant-worker settlements and small towns that lose employers. Rural poverty has persistently run higher than urban poverty.

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Men in rural areas are working less. They are typically older and less educated than their urban counterparts, reducing the number of jobs they are eligible for and the pay they can secure.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 13

Rates of disability among small-town workers have long been higher, partly due to such physically taxing jobs as farming and mining. The rates are rising faster, too, in part, because rural workers tend to be older.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 14

Rural areas have seen their share of business establishments shrink along with their share of the population.

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One cause is the lack of capital for new or small businesses. Adjusted for inflation, loans by banks of less than $1 million haven't recovered in rural areas since the recession.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 16

In the past couple of decades, better prevention and treatment have produced gains against heart disease, the nation’s No. 1 killer. The biggest improvements occurred in large cities, thanks to lower smoking rates, widespread cholesterol-lowering drugs and better emergency care, among other factors.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 17

The same pattern appears in death rates from cancer, the No. 2 killer in the U.S. Rates have fallen sharply in major cities and barely in rural areas. (Rates are adjusted to cancel effects due solely to some groups being older and more likely to be diagnosed with cancer.) The best gains stem from prevention, screening and treatment. That requires good primary care, advanced surgical treatments and drug trials at specialized hospitals.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 18

Diabetes rates indicate an ominous long-term problem for rural areas. They are higher than in urban areas and rising faster.

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One grim measure of the quality of rural life is the rising maternal death rate. More pregnant women have high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity or a history of drug use. Yet rural care for pregnant women is slipping. From 2005 to 2014, 15% of rural hospitals closed or ended maternity services. In suburban and urban areas, 5% did. Closures can prompt obstetrician/gynecologists to move, eroding health care for rural women.

The Divide Between Americas Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Townsin 20 Charts: Extended Excerpt Image 20

The nation’s suicide rate is worst in small towns. Suicide is often traced to untreated clinical depression or other mental-health troubles.

@ScottCalvert@WSJ 1% of a city’s streets produce 25% of its crime, while 5% of streets produce half of the crime.

How concentrated is urban crime within city streets and neighborhoods?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Rural America faces significant challenges, with 1 in 7 Americans living in rural counties where populations are aging & economic opportunities are dwindling @poverberg @WSJ.

How wide is the economic gap between rural and urban America?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI