Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Tuesday, July 11, 2017

AI Summary. Only 55% of Americans aged 18-64 hold full-time jobs, and labor force participation among men aged 25-54 is lower than at the end of the Great Depression, which the author attributes partly to the welfare state. The author argues work requirements for Medicaid and food stamps could draw millions back into the workforce.

Peter Cove Wall Street Journal
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The LFP rate for prime-age men is now lower than at the end of the Great Depression, partly due to the welfare state. Implementing work requirements could reintegrate millions into the workforce. @PeterCove @WSJ.

Can work requirements for benefits bring millions back into the workforce?

Core argument: Only 55% of Americans aged 18–64 hold full-time jobs and nearly 95m people are out of the job market, with the labor force participation rate for men aged 25–54 now below its level at the end of the Great Depression.

Despite a low unemployment rate, only 55% of Americans aged 18-64 hold full-time jobs, with nearly 95m people out of the job market. The LFP [Labor Force Participation] rate for men aged 25-54 is now lower than at the end of the Great Depression, partly due to the welfare state. Over 20% of prime-age men are on Medicaid, and nearly 60% of nonworking men receive federal disability benefits. Implementing work requirements for social benefits like Medicaid and SNAP could reintegrate millions into the workforce, potentially adding 3.3m from SSDI/SSI and 1.9m from SNAP. The 1996 welfare reform showed that such measures could reduce dependency, as evidenced by a 60% drop in TANF participants within a decade. Redirecting funds from poverty programs to job creation, such as a proposed $1tn federal infrastructure program, could further address the work shortage and stimulate economic growth.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Only 55% of Americans aged 18–64 hold full-time jobs and nearly 95m people are out of the job market, with the labor force participation rate for men aged 25–54 now below its level at the end of the Great Depression.
  2. Over 20% of prime-age men are on Medicaid and nearly 60% of nonworking men receive federal disability benefits.
  3. Work requirements for benefits such as Medicaid and SNAP could reintegrate an estimated 3.3m people from SSDI/SSI and 1.9m from SNAP into the workforce, echoing the 1996 welfare reform, after which TANF participation fell 60% within a decade.

Peter Cove, "Get Able-Bodied Americans off the Couch,"Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-able-bodied-americans-off-the-couch-1499188689

Get Able-Bodied Americans off the Couch

America doesn’t have a worker shortage; it has a work shortage. The unemployment rate is at a 15-year low, but only 55% of Americans adults 18 to 64 have full-time jobs. Nearly 95 million people have removed themselves entirely from the job market.

According to demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, the labor-force participation rate for men 25 to 54 is lower now than it was at the end of the Great Depression. The welfare state is largely to blame. More than a fifth of American men of prime working age are on Medicaid. According to the Census Bureau, nearly three-fifths of nonworking men receive federal disability benefits.

The good news is that the 1996 welfare reform taught us how to reduce government dependency and get idle Americans back to work. Attaching work requirements to social benefits like Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps), Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income would make what these pages have called “America’s growing labor shortage” a nonissue.

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 41% of nondisabled adults on Medicaid do not have jobs. Thirteen million Americans 18 to 54 currently receive SSDI or SSI benefits. Conservatively, work requirements could add 25% of that population (3.3 million workers) back to the labor force. Work requirements for people on SNAP would increase the worker rolls by 1.9 million if only 10% who are not engaged in work rejoined.

There’s no question that insisting on work in exchange for social benefits would succeed in reducing dependency. We have the data: Within 10 years of the 1996 reform, the number of Americans in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program fell 60%. But no reform is permanent. Under President Obama, federal poverty programs ballooned.

A better long-term solution to the work shortage would be to eliminate all forms of public support except for those who are unable to work, and eliminate all poverty programs, since they have not reduced poverty since they were established in 1965. The money currently being spent on these programs should be redirected to job creation—preferably for private-sector jobs, but public-sector jobs will do in a pinch. A trillion-dollar federal infrastructure program, such as the one President Trump has said he will propose, could absorb a large number of the unemployed and underemployed.

There are other avenues to pursue. For young men who are not working, a mandatory two-year public-service requirement with an off-ramp for those who snag a job could motivate them to get off—and stay off—the couch.

Too many Americans who could be available to help fuel robust economic growth are instead sitting on the sidelines. It’s time to get them in the game. It’s time to solve our work shortage.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

AI Summary. Foreign direct investors' expenditures to acquire or establish U.S. businesses totaled $373.4bn in 2016, down 0.15% from 2015, with acquisitions of existing businesses accounting for the bulk of the spending. The U.S. goods and services deficit was $502.3bn in 2016.

BEA Staff Bureau of Economic Analysis
Date Posted:
Is Database:
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Foreign Direct Investment By Type 2014 – 2016. Expenditures reached $373.4bn in 2016, a slight decrease of 0.15% from 2015. Predominantly characterized by acquisitions rather than new investments.

How much do foreign investors spend on U.S. businesses?

Core argument: Expenditures by foreign direct investors for new investment in the United States totaled $373.4bn in 2016, down 0.15% from 2015.

From 2014 to 2016, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. saw significant fluctuations, with expenditures reaching $373.4bn in 2016, a slight decrease of 0.15% from 2015. This period was characterized predominantly by acquisitions rather than new investments. The data highlights a broader economic context where the U.S. goods and services deficit stood at $502.3bn in 2016. These figures underscore the dynamic nature of FDI flows and their implications for the U.S. economy, reflecting both global economic conditions and domestic investment attractiveness. The trend of acquisitions suggests a strategic focus by foreign investors on existing U.S. assets, potentially impacting domestic market competition and innovation. Understanding these investment patterns is crucial for policymakers aiming to enhance the U.S.'s appeal as a destination for new foreign investments.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Expenditures by foreign direct investors for new investment in the United States totaled $373.4bn in 2016, down 0.15% from 2015.
  2. Acquisitions of existing U.S. businesses, rather than establishment of new ones, accounted for the predominant share of foreign direct investment expenditures from 2014 to 2016.
  3. The U.S. goods and services deficit stood at $502.3bn in 2016, the same year foreign direct investors spent $373.4bn on new investment in the United States.

new BEA numbers, incoming FDI was 373.4b for 2016 (down.15) from 2015 more or less all acquisitions, For context BEA has the good and services deficit at502.3bfor 2016

Expenditures by Foreign Direct Investors for New Investment in the United States, 2014 - 2016: Extended Excerpt Image 1

BEA, "Expenditures by Foreign Direct Investors for New Investment in the United States, 2014 - 2016," Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 12, 2017, https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/fdi/fdinewsrelease.htm