Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Macro Roundup


Wednesday, October 19, 2016

AI Summary. The number of migrants holding a tertiary degree rose by nearly 130% over two decades, compared with 40% growth in low-skilled migrants, with high-skilled migrants increasingly concentrated in a few English-speaking destinations. The US, UK, Canada, and Australia drew nearly 70% of high-skilled migrants to advanced economies, and the US alone hosted 11.4m skilled migrants, 41% of that total.

Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, Çaǧlar Özden, and Christopher Parsons National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
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High-skilled migrants are moving from diverse countries to a select few, notably the US, UK, Canada, and Australia. In 2010, these 4 countries attracted nearly 70% of high-skilled migrants to the OECD.

Are high-skilled migrants increasingly concentrated in a few English-speaking countries?

Core argument: The number of migrants holding a tertiary degree rose by nearly 130% between 1990 and 2010, while low-skilled migrants increased by only 40%, with high-skilled migrants moving from a diverse range of origin countries to a select few destinations.

From 1990 to 2010, the number of migrants with a tertiary degree surged by nearly 130%, while low-skilled migrants increased by only 40%. This trend highlights a shift where high-skilled migrants are moving from a diverse range of countries to a select few, notably the US, UK, Canada, and Australia. In 2010, these four countries attracted nearly 70% of high-skilled migrants to the OECD, with the US alone hosting 11.4m skilled migrants, representing 41% of the OECD total. The concentration of leading universities and high-tech firms in these English-speaking nations intensifies global competition for talent. Other countries like France, Germany, and Spain are enhancing efforts to attract skilled workers, yet the disparity remains. The US further distinguishes itself by offering O1 visas and EB-1 green cards for individuals with extraordinary abilities, ensuring a steady influx of top-tier talent.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The number of migrants holding a tertiary degree rose by nearly 130% between 1990 and 2010, while low-skilled migrants increased by only 40%, with high-skilled migrants moving from a diverse range of origin countries to a select few destinations.
  2. The US, UK, Canada, and Australia together attracted nearly 70% of high-skilled migrants to the OECD in 2010, with the US alone hosting 11.4m skilled migrants, or 41% of the OECD total.
  3. The US offers O1 visas and EB-1 green cards for individuals with extraordinary abilities, while France, Germany, and Spain are stepping up their own efforts to attract skilled workers.

Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, Çaǧlar Özden, Christopher Parsons, "Global Talent Flows," National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2016, http://papers.nber.org/tmp/10704-w22715.pdfworth noting they do use education as a proxy for skill, would be interesting to track the number of people worldwide eligible for O1/EB-1 as a measure

"...The number of migrants with a tertiary degree rose nearly 130 percent from 1990 to 2010, while low skilled (primary educated) migrants increased by only 40 percent during that time. A pattern is emerging in which these high-skilled migrants are departing from a broader range of countries and heading to a narrower range of countries—in particular, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia....Even among OECD destinations, the distribution of talent remains skewed. Four Anglo-Saxon countries—the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia—constitute the destination for nearly 70 percent of high-skilled migrants (to the OECD) in 2010. The United States alone has historically hosted close to half of all high-skilled migrants to the OECD and one-third of high-skilled migrants worldwide. In 2010, the United States hosted 11.4 million skilled migrants, 41 percent of the OECD total. The attractiveness of English-speaking, high-income countries for high-skilled migrants has led other destination countries, such as France, Germany and Spain, to increase their efforts to attract these workers. Nevertheless, the volume of skilled migration to the four Anglo-Saxon countries, coupled with the significant asymmetry in the concentration of leading universities, high-tech firms and research centers, implies that the global competition for skills will continue to be fierce and will likely remain unequal....Superstar talent rarely competes for H-1B visas, for example, but instead gains direct access to the United States through O1 temporary visas for extraordinary ability and direct green card applications of the EB-1 level for those with even more exceptional talent. Both of these categories are always in surplus. In effect, the US operates a points system for individuals with truly exceptional talents such as Nobel Prize winners, superstar athletes and musicians (Rosen 1981)...."
Global Talent Flows: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Monday, November 21, 2016

AI Summary. Between 1940 and 1980 the wage gap between poorer and richer U.S. cities narrowed by about 1.4% a year, but that cross-city convergence stopped after 1980. The authors attribute the halt to skill-biased technical change and agglomeration economies, with skill-biased technical change accounting for roughly 80% of the decline.

Elisa Giannone University of Chicago
Date Posted:
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Database

Research by @ElisaGiannone shows that skill-biased technical change (SBTC) significantly impacted urban clusters more than smaller cities, contributing to reduced geographic mobility & regional divergence.

Why did wage convergence between poorer and richer U.S. cities stop?

Core argument: Wage gaps between poorer and richer U.S. cities narrowed at roughly 1.4% annually between 1940 and 1980, but that cross-city convergence stalled after 1980.

Starting in 1980, skill-biased technical change (SBTC) significantly impacted urban clusters more than smaller cities, contributing to reduced geographic mobility. Between 1940 and 1980, the wage gap between poorer and richer U.S. cities shrank at an annual rate of ~1.4%, but post-1980, regional convergence stalled. SBTC and agglomeration economies largely explain the cessation of cross-city wage convergence from 1980 to 2010, with SBTC accounting for ~80% of the decline. The skill premium rose in educated cities post-1990, and high-skill workers increasingly migrated to these areas, intensifying the wage differential. This shift highlights the role of SBTC in altering migration patterns and skill concentration, leading to a divergence in regional economic outcomes.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Wage gaps between poorer and richer U.S. cities narrowed at roughly 1.4% annually between 1940 and 1980, but that cross-city convergence stalled after 1980.
  2. Skill-biased technical change and agglomeration economies largely explain the halt in cross-city wage convergence from 1980 to 2010, with skill-biased technical change accounting for about 80% of the decline.
  3. The skill premium rose in educated cities after 1990, and high-skill workers increasingly migrated to those areas, intensifying wage differentials.

starting in 1980 skill-based technical change helped the big urban clusters to a greater degree than smaller cities, has the effect of lowering geographic mobility. Elisa Giannone, "Skilled-Biased Technical Change and Regional Convergence," University of Chicago, November 20, 2016, http://home.uchicago.edu/~elisagiannone/files/JMP_ElisaG.pdf"...Between 1940 and 1980 the wage gap between poorer U.S. cities and richer ones was shrinking at an annual rate of roughly 1.4%. After 1980, however, there was no further regional convergence overall.This paper quanties the contributions of skill-biased technical change (SBTC) and agglomeration economies to the end of cross-city wage convergence within the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I develop and estimate a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that looks at the causes of regional convergence and divergence. The model choice is motivated by novel empirical regularities regarding the evolution of the skill premium and migration patterns over time and across space. The model successfully matches the quantitative features of the U.S. regional wage convergence. Moreover, the model also reproduces changes in the skill ratio across U.S. cities, as well as, migration patterns after 1980. Finally, the counterfactual analysis suggests that SBTC explains much of change in cross-city wage deferential. I provide a novel dynamic spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, local agglomeration spillover, skill-biased productivity shocks and selective migration. I motivate the assumptions of the models with three novel empirical facts that link together the skill premium, skill concentration and internal migration:1) Wage convergence declined only among high-skill workers after 1980; 1) The skill premium is higher in educated cities after 1990; 2) Over time, high-skill workers begin to migrate relatively more than low-skill workers to educated cities. Decomposing this relationship, I nd that this pattern is stronger for high-skill workers than for low-skill workers..... The main findings suggest that SBTC explains approximately 80% of the decline in cross-MSA wage convergence in the U.S. after 1980..."

Skilled-Biased Technical Change and Regional Convergence: Extended Excerpt Image 1