Macro Roundup

Link and source were there just @ the bottom. citation: Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee and Michael Spence, "New World Order: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy"Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014. Available at:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141531/erik-brynjolfsson-andrew-mcafee-and-michael-spence/new-world-order

Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee and Michael Spence, "New World Order: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy"Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014. Available at:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141531/erik-brynjolfsson-andrew-mcafee-and-michael-spence/new-world-order

Link and source were there just @ the bottom. citation: Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee and Michael Spence, "New World Order: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy"Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014. Available at:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141531/erik-brynjolfsson-andrew-mcafee-and-michael-spence/new-world-order

Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee and Michael Spence, "New World Order: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy"Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014. Available at:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141531/erik-brynjolfsson-andrew-mcafee-and-michael-spence/new-world-order

they don't explain how real estate fits into their methodology. "… documenting a 5 percentage point decline in the share of global corporate gross value added paid to labor over the last 30 years. We demonstrate the robustness of the decline in the labor share using a novel dataset we compile by combining country specific data posted on the Internet with a sector-level national income accounting data from multilateral organizations obtained digitally and collected from physical books. Of the 51 countries with more than 10 years of data between 1975 and 2007, 36 exhibited downwards trends in their corporate labor share….the global shift from labor income to corporate profits was associated with an increase in the share of total savings originating from the corporate sector, or the corporate savings share, of more than 20 percentage points…. Our goal is to relate global trends in the labor share and corporate savings to the observed global decline in the relative price of investments gods, an important component of the user cost of capital…preference for internal financing implies an increase in corporate savings to fund the increase in the capital stock. Further, the rise in corporate savings exceeds that of corporate investment because the expanded capital stock relaxes the repurchase constraints and savings is used to buy back additional shares. The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods generates a significant movement from an initial steady state with a high labor share and low corporate savings share to another steady state with a low labor share and high corporate savings share…baseline decline in global corporate labor share of 5 percentage points…labor shares in the corporate sector have been declining throughout the world over the last 30 years. This has been true in the world’s largest economies such as the United States, China, Japan, and Germany, but also holds true for most developing countries for which we have data. We provide evidence that declining labor share are related to declines in the relative price of investment using both time series and cross-sectional variation…The scale of the corporate sector relative to GDP has not changed, other payments to capital have declined as a share of corporate value added, and there has only been a moderate increase in dividends relative to profits. As a result, there has been a significant increase in corporate savings relative to GDP and relative to total savings. Both trends were strongest in countries with larger declines in the relative price of investment goods…. Household savings as a share of global GDP decreased and total savings as a share of global GDP remained roughly constant between 1975 and 2007…. For three decades, corporate labor shares have declined throughout the world. Declines of the labor share were associated with a profound and equally pervasive shift in the supply of global savings from households to corporations. Whereas in 1975 a majority of global investment was funded by household savings, in recent years global investment is funded primarily from corporate savings..." Karabarbounis, Loukas and Brent Neiman, “The Global Decline of the Labor Share,” NBER, June 2013. Available at:http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/brent.neiman/research/LabShare.pdf

"Further, the rise in corporate savings exceeds that of corporate investment because the expanded capital stock relaxes the repurchased constraint and saving is used to buy back additional shares." I don't understand this sentence. I get that Corp savings exceed investment. Profits are up and investment is down. But if those savings (ie profit minus investment) are used to buy back shares, then corps aren't saving the money. They are distributing it to shareholders who may save or spend it like any other income. Share repurchases are no different than dividends. They don't count as corp savings.

Are these the same guys who wrote that paper that we used to make those graphes?

Are these guys accounting for real estate, which piketty failed to do?

Here you've given me a link to the paper. You never gave me a link to the write up about the paper. Need that too.

Attached is the highlighted copy. My write up of the paper follows

“The economists Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman have documented significant declines in labor’s share of GDP.” Please send me a highlighted copy of the paper.

“The decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of investment goods explains roughly half of the observed decline in the labor share.” But if ideas are scarce and ideas come from people (power law distributed) than it should be the.01% and not capital that is gaining share. They are gaining share, as we saw, but so is capital.

Recent advances in technology have created an increasingly unified global marketplace for labor and capital. The ability of both to flow to their highest-value uses, regardless of their location, is equalizing their prices across the globe. In recent years, this broad factor-price equalization has benefited nations with abundant low-cost labor and those with access to cheap capital....This means that the real winners of the future will not be the providers of cheap labor or the owners of ordinary capital, both of whom will be increasingly squeezed by automation. Fortune will instead favor a third group: those who can innovate and create new products, services, and business models. The distribution of income for this creative class typically takes the form of a power law, with a small number of winners capturing most of the rewards and a long tail consisting of the rest of the participants. So in the future, ideas will be the real scarce inputs in the world -- scarcer than both labor and capital -- and the few who provide good ideas will reap huge rewards…. Other countries are witnessing similar trends. The economists Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman have documented significant declines in labor’s share of GDP in 42 of the 59 countries they studied, including China, India, and Mexico. In describing their findings, Karabarbounis and Neiman are explicit that progress in digital technologies is an important driver of this phenomenon: “The decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of investment goods explains roughly half of the observed decline in the labor share.”But if capital’s share of national income has been growing, the continuation of such a trend into the future may be in jeopardy as a new challenge to capital emerges -- not from a revived labor sector but from an increasingly important unit within its own ranks: digital capital.In a free market, the biggest premiums go to the scarcest inputs needed for production. In a world where capital such as software and robots can be replicated cheaply, its marginal value will tend to fall, even if more of it is used in the aggregate. And as more capital is added cheaply at the margin, the value of existing capital will actually be driven down… When income is distributed according to a power law, most people will be below the average, and as national economies writ large are increasingly subject to such dynamics, that pattern will play itself out on the national level. And sure enough, the United States today features one of the world’s highest levels of real GDP per capita -- even as its median income has essentially stagnated for two decade...

New World Order

Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy

By Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee, and Michael Spence

ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON is Schussel Family Professor of Management Science at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Co-Founder of MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy. ANDREW MCAFEE is a Principal Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management and Co-Founder of MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy. MICHAEL SPENCE is William R. Berkley Professor in Economics and Business at the NYU Stern School of Business.

Recent advances in technology have created an increasingly unified global marketplace for labor and capital. The ability of both to flow to their highest-value uses, regardless of their location, is equalizing their prices across the globe. In recent years, this broad factor-price equalization has benefited nations with abundant low-cost labor and those with access to cheap capital. Some have argued that the current era of rapid technological progress serves labor, and some have argued that it serves capital. What both camps have slighted is the fact that technology is not only integrating existing sources of labor and capital but also creating new ones.

Machines are substituting for more types of human labor than ever before. As they replicate themselves, they are also creating more capital. This means that the real winners of the future will not be the providers of cheap labor or the owners of ordinary capital, both of whom will be increasingly squeezed by automation. Fortune will instead favor a third group: those who can innovate and create new products, services, and business models.

The distribution of income for this creative class typically takes the form of a power law, with a small number of winners capturing most of the rewards and a long tail consisting of the rest of the participants. So in the future, ideas will be the real scarce inputs in the world -- scarcer than both labor and capital -- and the few who provide good ideas will reap huge rewards. Assuring an acceptable standard of living for the rest and building inclusive economies and societies will become increasingly important challenges in the years to come.

LABOR PAINS

In the future, ideas will be the real scarce inputs -- scarcer than both labor and capital.

Turn over your iPhone and you can read an eight-word business plan that has served Apple well: “Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China.” With a market capitalization of over $500 billion, Apple has become the most valuable company in the world. Variants of this strategy have worked not only for Apple and other large global enterprises but also for medium-sized firms and even “micro-multinationals.” More and more companies have been riding the two great forces of our era -- technology and globalization -- to profits.

Technology has sped globalization forward, dramatically lowering communication and transaction costs and moving the world much closer to a single, large global market for labor, capital, and other inputs to production. Even though labor is not fully mobile, the other factors increasingly are. As a result, the various components of global supply chains can move to labor’s location with little friction or cost. About one-third of the goods and services in advanced economies are tradable, and the figure is rising. And the effect of global competition spills over to the nontradable part of the economy, in both advanced and developing economies.

All of this creates opportunities for not only greater efficiencies and profits but also enormous dislocations. If a worker in China or India can do the same work as one in the United States, then the laws of economics dictate that they will end up earning similar wages (adjusted for some other differences in national productivity). That’s good news for overall economic efficiency, for consumers, and for workers in developing countries -- but not for workers in developed countries who now face low-cost competition. Research indicates that the tradable sectors of advanced industrial countries have not been net employment generators for two decades. That means job creation now takes place almost exclusively within the large nontradable sector, whose wages are held down by increasing competition from workers displaced from the tradable sector.

Even as the globalization story continues, however, an even bigger one is starting to unfold: the story of automation, including artificial intelligence, robotics, 3-D printing, and so on. And this second story is surpassing the first, with some of its greatest effects destined to hit relatively unskilled workers in developing nations.

Visit a factory in China’s Guangdong Province, for example, and you will see thousands of young people working day in and day out on routine, repetitive tasks, such as connecting two parts of a keyboard. Such jobs are rarely, if ever, seen anymore in the United States or the rest of the rich world. But they may not exist for long in China and the rest of the developing world either, for they involve exactly the type of tasks that are easy for robots to do. As intelligent machines become cheaper and more capable, they will increasingly replace human labor, especially in relatively structured environments such as factories and especially for the most routine and repetitive tasks. To put it another way, offshoring is often only a way station on the road to automation.

This will happen even where labor costs are low. Indeed, Foxconn, the Chinese company that assembles iPhones and iPads, employs more than a million low-income workers -- but now, it is supplementing and replacing them with a growing army of robots. So after many manufacturing jobs moved from the United States to China, they appear to be vanishing from China as well. (Reliable data on this transition are hard to come by. Official Chinese figures report a decline of 30 million manufacturing jobs since 1996, or 25 percent of the total, even as manufacturing output has soared by over 70 percent, but part of that drop may reflect revisions in the methods of gathering data.) As work stops chasing cheap labor, moreover, it will gravitate toward wherever the final market is, since that will add value by shortening delivery times, reducing inventory costs, and the like.

The growing capabilities of automation threaten one of the most reliable strategies that poor countries have used to attract outside investment: offering low wages to compensate for low productivity and skill levels. And the trend will extend beyond manufacturing. Interactive voice response systems, for example, are reducing the requirement for direct person-to-person interaction, spelling trouble for call centers in the developing world. Similarly, increasingly reliable computer programs will cut into transcription work now often done in the developing world. In more and more domains, the most cost-effective source of “labor” is becoming intelligent and flexible machines as opposed to low-wage humans in other countries.

CAPITAL PUNISHMENT

If cheap, abundant labor is no longer a clear path to economic progress, then what is? One school of thought points to the growing contributions of capital: the physical and intangible assets that combine with labor to produce the goods and services in an economy (think of equipment, buildings, patents, brands, and so on). As the economist Thomas Piketty argues in his best-selling book Capital in the Twenty-first Century, capital’s share of the economy tends to grow when the rate of return on it is greater than the general rate of economic growth, a condition he predicts for the future. The “capital deepening” of economies that Piketty forecasts will be accelerated further as robots, computers, and software (all of which are forms of capital) increasingly substitute for human workers. Evidence indicates that just such a form of capital-based technological change is taking place in the United States and around the world.

In the past decade, the historically consistent division in the United States between the share of total national income going to labor and that going to physical capital seems to have changed significantly. As the economists Susan Fleck, John Glaser, and Shawn Sprague noted in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Monthly Labor Review in 2011, “Labor share averaged 64.3 percent from 1947 to 2000. Labor share has declined over the past decade, falling to its lowest point in the third quarter of 2010, 57.8 percent.” Recent moves to “re-shore” production from overseas, including Apple’s decision to produce its new Mac Pro computer in Texas, will do little to reverse this trend. For in order to be economically viable, these new domestic manufacturing facilities will need to be highly automated.

The United States has one of the world’s highest levels of real GDP per capita -- even as its median income has stagnated.

Other countries are witnessing similar trends. The economists Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman have documented significant declines in labor’s share of GDP in 42 of the 59 countries they studied, including China, India, and Mexico. In describing their findings, Karabarbounis and Neiman are explicit that progress in digital technologies is an important driver of this phenomenon: “The decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of investment goods explains roughly half of the observed decline in the labor share.”

But if capital’s share of national income has been growing, the continuation of such a trend into the future may be in jeopardy as a new challenge to capital emerges -- not from a revived labor sector but from an increasingly important unit within its own ranks: digital capital.

In a free market, the biggest premiums go to the scarcest inputs needed for production. In a world where capital such as software and robots can be replicated cheaply, its marginal value will tend to fall, even if more of it is used in the aggregate. And as more capital is added cheaply at the margin, the value of existing capital will actually be driven down. Unlike, say, traditional factories, many types of digital capital can be added extremely cheaply. Software can be duplicated and distributed at almost zero incremental cost. And many elements of computer hardware, governed by variants of Moore’s law, get quickly and consistently cheaper over time. Digital capital, in short, is abundant, has low marginal costs, and is increasingly important in almost every industry.

Even as production becomes more capital-intensive, therefore, the rewards earned by capitalists as a group may not necessarily continue to grow relative to labor. The shares will depend on the exact details of the production, distribution, and governance systems.

Most of all, the payoff will depend on which inputs to production are scarcest. If digital technologies create cheap substitutes for a growing set of jobs, then it is not a good time to be a laborer. But if digital technologies also increasingly substitute for capital, then all owners of capital should not expect to earn outsized returns, either.

TECHCRUNCH DISRUPT

What will be the scarcest, and hence the most valuable, resource in what two of us (Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee) have called “the second machine age,” an era driven by digital technologies and their associated economic characteristics? It will be neither ordinary labor nor ordinary capital but people who can create new ideas and innovations.

Such people have always been economically valuable, of course, and have often profited handsomely from their innovations as a result. But they had to share the returns on their ideas with the labor and capital that were necessary for bringing them into the marketplace. Digital technologies increasingly make both ordinary labor and ordinary capital commodities, and so a greater share of the rewards from ideas will go to the creators, innovators, and entrepreneurs. People with ideas, not workers or investors, will be the scarcest resource.

The most basic model economists use to explain technology’s impact treats it as a simple multiplier for everything else, increasing overall productivity evenly for everyone. This model is used in most introductory economics classes and provides the foundation for the common -- and, until recently, very sensible -- intuition that a rising tide of technological progress will lift all boats equally, making all workers more productive and hence more valuable.

A slightly more complex and realistic model, however, allows for the possibility that technology may not affect all inputs equally but instead favor some more than others. Skill-based technical change, for example, plays to the advantage of more skilled workers relative to less skilled ones, and capital-based technical change favors capital relative to labor. Both of those types of technical change have been important in the past, but increasingly, a third type -- what we call superstar-based technical change -- is upending the global economy.

Today, it is possible to take many important goods, services, and processes and codify them. Once codified, they can be digitized, and once digitized, they can be replicated. Digital copies can be made at virtually zero cost and transmitted anywhere in the world almost instantaneously, each an exact replica of the original. The combination of these three characteristics -- extremely low cost, rapid ubiquity, and perfect fidelity -- leads to some weird and wonderful economics. It can create abundance where there had been scarcity, not only for consumer goods, such as music videos, but also for economic inputs, such as certain types of labor and capital.

The returns in such markets typically follow a distinct pattern -- a power law, or Pareto curve, in which a small number of players reap a disproportionate share of the rewards. Network effects, whereby a product becomes more valuable the more users it has, can also generate these kinds of winner-take-all or winner-take-most markets. Consider Instagram, the photo-sharing platform, as an example of the economics of the digital, networked economy. The 14 people who created the company didn’t need a lot of unskilled human helpers to do so, nor did they need much physical capital. They built a digital product that benefited from network effects, and when it caught on quickly, they were able to sell it after only a year and a half for nearly three-quarters of a billion dollars -- ironically, months after the bankruptcy of another photography company, Kodak, that at its peak had employed some 145,000 people and held billions of dollars in capital assets.

Instagram is an extreme example of a more general rule. More often than not, when improvements in digital technologies make it more attractive to digitize a product or process, superstars see a boost in their incomes, whereas second bests, second movers, and latecomers have a harder time competing. The top performers in music, sports, and other areas have also seen their reach and incomes grow since the 1980s, directly or indirectly riding the same trends upward.

But it is not only software and media that are being transformed. Digitization and networks are becoming more pervasive in every industry and function across the economy, from retail and financial services to manufacturing and marketing. That means superstar economics are affecting more goods, services, and people than ever before.

Even top executives have started earning rock-star compensation. In 1990, CEO pay in the United States was, on average, 70 times as large as the salaries of other workers; in 2005, it was 300 times as large. Executive compensation more generally has been going in the same direction globally, albeit with considerable variation from country to country. Many forces are at work here, including tax and policy changes, evolving cultural and organizational norms, and plain luck. But as research by one of us (Brynjolfsson) and Heekyung Kim has shown, a portion of the growth is linked to the greater use of information technology. Technology expands the potential reach, scale, and monitoring capacity of a decision-maker, increasing the value of a good decision-maker by magnifying the potential consequences of his or her choices. Direct management via digital technologies makes a good manager more valuable than in earlier times, when executives had to share control with long chains of subordinates and could affect only a smaller range of activities. Today, the larger the market value of a company, the more compelling the argument for trying to get the very best executives to lead it.

When income is distributed according to a power law, most people will be below the average, and as national economies writ large are increasingly subject to such dynamics, that pattern will play itself out on the national level. And sure enough, the United States today features one of the world’s highest levels of real GDP per capita -- even as its median income has essentially stagnated for two decades.

PREPARING FOR THE PERMANENT REVOLUTION

The forces at work in the second machine age are powerful, interactive, and complex. It is impossible to look far into the future and predict with any precision what their ultimate impact will be. If individuals, businesses, and governments understand what is going on, however, they can at least try to adjust and adapt.

The United States, for example, stands to win back some business as the second sentence of Apple’s eight-word business plan is overturned because its technology and manufacturing operations are once again performed inside U.S. borders. But the first sentence of the plan will become more important than ever, and here, concern, rather than complacency, is in order. For unfortunately, the dynamism and creativity that have made the United States the most innovative nation in the world may be faltering.

Thanks to the ever-onrushing digital revolution, design and innovation have now become part of the tradable sector of the global economy and will face the same sort of competition that has already transformed manufacturing. Leadership in design depends on an educated work force and an entrepreneurial culture, and the traditional American advantage in these areas is declining. Although the United States once led the world in the share of graduates in the work force with at least an associate’s degree, it has now fallen to 12th place. And despite the buzz about entrepreneurship in places such as Silicon Valley, data show that since 1996, the number of U.S. start-ups employing more than one person has declined by over 20 percent.

If the trends under discussion are global, their local effects will be shaped, in part, by the social policies and investments that countries choose to make, both in the education sector specifically and in fostering innovation and economic dynamism more generally. For over a century, the U.S. educational system was the envy of the world, with universal K-12 schooling and world-class universities propelling sustained economic growth. But in recent decades, U.S. primary and secondary schooling have become increasingly uneven, with their quality based on neighborhood income levels and often a continued emphasis on rote learning.

Fortunately, the same digital revolution that is transforming product and labor markets can help transform education as well. Online learning can provide students with access to the best teachers, content, and methods regardless of their location, and new data-driven approaches to the field can make it easier to measure students’ strengths, weaknesses, and progress. This should create opportunities for personalized learning programs and continuous improvement, using some of the feedback techniques that have already transformed scientific discovery, retail, and manufacturing.

Globalization and technological change may increase the wealth and economic efficiency of nations and the world at large, but they will not work to everybody’s advantage, at least in the short to medium term. Ordinary workers, in particular, will continue to bear the brunt of the changes, benefiting as consumers but not necessarily as producers. This means that without further intervention, economic inequality is likely to continue to increase, posing a variety of problems. Unequal incomes can lead to unequal opportunities, depriving nations of access to talent and undermining the social contract. Political power, meanwhile, often follows economic power, in this case undermining democracy.

These challenges can and need to be addressed through the public provision of high-quality basic services, including education, health care, and retirement security. Such services will be crucial for creating genuine equality of opportunity in a rapidly changing economic environment and increasing intergenerational mobility in income, wealth, and future prospects.

As for spurring economic growth in general, there is a near consensus among serious economists about many of the policies that are necessary. The basic strategy is intellectually simple, if politically difficult: boost public-sector investment over the short and medium term while making such investment more efficient and putting in place a fiscal consolidation plan over the longer term. Public investments are known to yield high returns in basic research in health, science, and technology; in education; and in infrastructure spending on roads, airports, public water and sanitation systems, and energy and communications grids. Increased government spending in these areas would boost economic growth now even as it created real wealth for subsequent generations later.

Should the digital revolution continue to be as powerful in the future as it has been in recent years, the structure of the modern economy and the role of work itself may need to be rethought. As a group, our descendants may work fewer hours and live better -- but both the work and the rewards could be spread even more unequally, with a variety of unpleasant consequences. Creating sustainable, equitable, and inclusive growth will require more than business as usual. The place to start is with a proper understanding of just how fast and far things are evolving.

Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee and Michael Spence, "New World Order: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy"Foreign Affairs, July/August 2014. Available at:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141531/erik-brynjolfsson-andrew-mcafee-and-michael-spence/new-world-order

Karabarbounis, Loukas and Brent Neiman, “The Global Decline of the Labor Share,” NBER, June 2013. Available at:http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/brent.neiman/research/LabShare.pdf

Thus, “Corporate savings will rise relative to GDP as the corporate sector increases as a share of economic activity, as the labor or the capital share declines, and as dividends decrease relative to profits.”

The preference for internal financing implies an increase in corporate savings to fund the increase in the capital stock. Further, the rise in corporate savings exceeds that of corporate investment because the expanded capital stock relaxes the repurchased constraint and saving is used to buy back additional shares. The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods generates a significant movement from an initial steady state with a high labor share and low corporate saving share to another steady state with a low labor share and high corporate saving share.

The global shift from labor income to corporate profits was associated with an increase in the share of total savings originating from the corporate sector, or the corporate savings share, of more than 20 percentage points. They note:

In their view the decline in labor share - rather than being driven by information technology and computers - was driven by the decline in the cost of capital which induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The paper outlines this dynamic mathematically, creating a model which “quantitatively… accounts for more than half of the global trends.”

For three decades, corporate labor shares have declined throughout the world. Declines of the labor share were associated with a profound and equally pervasive shift in the supply of global savings from households to corporations. Whereas in 1975 a majority of global investment was funded by household savings, in recent years global investment is funded primarily from corporate savings.

In “The Global Decline of the Labor Share” Karabarbounis and Neiman documents the decline in labor’s share of income across the world over the past 30 years. They note that this decline has been associated with a significant increase in the flow of corporate savings, generally the largest component of national savings:

"...To reverse Keynes a bit, if you die in the short run, there is no long run. So my preoccupation this morning will be with a set of temporary but, I believe, ultimately long-term concerns…. there is room for doubt about whether the cycle actually cycles. Today, it is increasingly clear that the trend in growth can be adversely affected over the longer term by what happens in the business cycle. And today, there are real questions about the efficacy of monetary policy, given the zero lower bound on interest rates…. three propositions. First, as the United States and other industrial economies are currently configured, simultaneous achievement of adequate growth, capacity utilization, and financial stability appears increasingly difficult. Second, this is likely to be related to a substantial decline in the equilibrium or natural real rate of interest. Third, addressing these challenges requires different policy approaches than are represented by the current conventional wisdom…Figure 1 shows that the economy is now 10 percent below what in 2007 we thought its potential would be in 2014. Of that 10 percent gap,5 percent has already been accommodated into a reduction in the estimate of its potential, and 5 percent remains as an estimate of its GDP gap. In other words, through this recovery, we have made no progress in restoring GDP to its potential… Making the best calcula- tions one can from the CBO’s estimates of potential (and I believe quite similar results would come from other estimates of potential), one can see from Figure 4 that this is not about technological change. Slower total factor productivity than we would have expected in 2007 accounts for the smallest part of the downward trend in potential. The largest part is associated with reduced capital investment, followed closely by reduced labor input. Let me emphasize that this is not a calculation about why we have less output today. It is a calculation about why it is estimated that the potential of the economy has declined by 5 percent as a consequence of the downturn that we have suffered. The record of growth for the last five years is disturbing, but I think that is not the whole of what should concern us. It is true that prior to the downturn in 2007, through the period from, say, 2002 until 2007, the economy grew at a satisfactory rate. Note that, there is no clear evidence of overheating. Inflation did not accelerate in any substantial way…. Did it do so in a sustainable way? I would suggest not. It is now clear that the increase in house prices shown in Figure 5 (that can retrospectively be convincingly labeled a bubble) was associated with an unsustainable upward movement in the share of GDP devoted to residential investment, as shown in Figure 6. And this made possible a substantial increase in the debt-to-income ratio for households, which has been reversed only to a limited extent, as shown in Figure 7…. In sum, I would suggest to you that the record of industrial countries over the last 15 years is profoundly discouraging as to the prospect of maintaining substantial growth with financial stability. Why is this the case? I would suggest that in understanding this phenomenon, it is useful at the outset to consider the possibility that changes in the structure of the economy have led to a significant shift in the natural balance between savings and investment, causing a decline in the equilibrium or normal real rate of interest that is associated with full employment…. imagine, as a hypothesis, that this decline in the equilibrium real rate of interest has taken place. What would one expect to see? One would expect increasing difficulty, particularly in the down phase of the cycle, in achieving full employment and strong growth because of the constraints associated with the zero lower bound on interest rates. One would expect that, as a normal matter, real interest rates would be lower. With very low real interest rates and with low inflation, this also means very low nominal interest rates, so one would expect increasing risk-seeking by investors... Is it reasonable to suggest that equilibrium real interest rates have declined?... reasonable hypothesis for at least six reasons… First, reductions in demand for debt-financed investment… a declining rate of population growth, as shown in Figure 8, means a declining natural rate of interest…. changes in the distribution of income, both between labor income and capital income and between those with more wealth and those with less, have operated to raise the propensity to save, as have increases in corporate-retained earnings…. is a substantial shift in the relative price of capital goods… Cheaper capital goods mean that investment goods can be achieved with less borrowing and spending, reducing the propensity for investment…. reasonable argument to be made that what matters in the economy is after-tax, rather than pre-tax, real interest rates, and the consequence of disinflation is that for any given after-tax real interest rate, the pretax real interest rate now needs to be lower than it was before… substantial global moves to accumulate central bank reserves, disproportionately in safe assets in general, and in U.S. Treasuries in particular…. Each of these factors has operated to reduce natural or equilibrium real interest rates….Stay patient...Reduce the actual real rate of interest...Raise demand" "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics Vol. 49, No. 2. Available at:http://larrysummers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NABE-speech-Lawrence-H.-Summers1.pdf