Tax Reform Is Covering Its Costs Faster growth is on track to outpace debt in the next decade. Is the 2017 tax reform paying for itself? It’s a complicated question, but the critics have made up their minds. Outlets like the Tax Policy Center claim the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has diminished federal revenue rather than increase it as some supporters predicted. Other skeptics lament surging government deficits and debt. Some point to last year’s brief ... Read More
Market Risen to Top Decile Equity Risk Premium
Aswath Damodaran finds the equity premium has risen to 6%—in the top decile historically. He estimates shocks from 2 of the following have already been priced in: • Slower growth • Political/economic crisis • Higher interest rates • ... Read More
New Study Shows 83% of Criminals Rearrested Within 9 Years
A 9-year Justice Department study shows 44% of released prisoners are rearrested within 1 year; 83% within 9 years. 77% of drug offenders are rearrested for non-drug related crimes including 34% for violent crime. On average, released prisoners are rearrested 5 times. ... Read More
Krugman’s Misleading Scandinavian Comparison
Paul Krugman wrote a misleading post comparing U.S. wages and productivity growth to Scandinavia without admitting that Scandinavia’s test scores are much higher than America’s. Comparing Scandinavia to Scandinavian-Americans instead of to Americans more broadly is a simple way to factor out the benefit of higher Scandinavian test scores. (If anything, Scandinavians with lower socioeconomic status immigrated to America.) On average, Scandinavian-Americans earn ... Read More
With $3-an-hour Mexican Labor, Why Should Capital Flow to Rural America?
With $3-an-hour Mexican labor, why should capital flow to rural America? Can rural America achieve the productivity needed to sustain high wages unless it exports labor to urban America? It doesn’t seem likely. ... Read More
The San Antonio Express-News’ Michael Taylor Compliments The Upside of Inequality
The San Antonio Express-News' Michael Taylor Compliments The Upside of Inequality “Conard’s book challenges some deeply held beliefs. I want people … who think inequality is a major problem to read more smart people on the other side of the debate, like Edward Conard.” Is the wealth gap really all that bad? The financial crisis wiped out trillions of dollars of savings and capital in America, sparking an entire movement against the top 1 percent of earners and ... Read More
New Study Finds Mortgage-Backed Bonds Issued Pre-Crisis Were Properly Rated
A new study published by the NBER examines the losses suffered by AAA-rated mortgage securities issued in the lead up to the financial crisis. The study finds: “Total cumulated losses [on AAA-rated securities] up to 2013 are under six percent. … The subprime AAA-rated RMBS did particularly well. … [The] returns on AAA RMBS strike us as rather reasonable, and unlikely to have thrown the financial system into the abyss. … Together, these facts call into question the ... Read More
