Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Unintended Consequences Oxford
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Edward Conard

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LATEST
  • 2018 Update DOJ Prisoner Recidivism New Study Shows 83% of Criminals Rearrested Within 9 Years
    A 9-year Justice Department study shows 44% of released prisoners are rearrested within 1 year; 83% within 9 years. 77% of drug offenders are rearrested for non-drug related crimes including 34% for violent crime. On average, released prisoners are rearrested 5 times. Read More

  • Should America have concentrated its offshored production in China?
    From a foreign policy perspective, was it wise to concentrate America’s offshored production in China rather than spreading it across smaller, low-wage economies? Read More

  • Survey of Scientists Indicates Productivity of Scientists is Slowing Survey of Scientists Indicates Productivity of Scientists is Slowing
    The Atlantic reports on a revealing survey of top scientists who compared the importance of scientific discoveries in a “round robin tournament.” The survey finds: The picture this survey paints is bleak: Over the past century we’ve vastly increased the time and money invested in science, but in scientists’ own judgment we’re producing the most important breakthroughs at a near-constant rate. On a per-dollar or per-person basis, this suggests that science is becoming far less efficient. The authors, Patrick Collison and Michael Nielsen, also note: In the early days of the Nobel Prize,… Read More

  • Two charts show income inequality hasn’t risen as much as we’ve been led to believe
    Two charts show income inequality hasn’t risen as much as we’ve been led to believe.   Read More

  • Paul Krugman wrote a misleading post comparing U.S. wages and productivity growth to Scandinavia without admitting that Scandinavia’s test scores are much higher than America’s. Krugman’s Misleading Scandinavian Comparison
    Paul Krugman wrote a misleading post comparing U.S. wages and productivity growth to Scandinavia without admitting that Scandinavia’s test scores are much higher than America’s. Comparing Scandinavia to Scandinavian-Americans instead of to Americans more broadly is a simple way to factor out the benefit of higher Scandinavian test scores. (If anything, Scandinavians with lower socioeconomic status immigrated to America.) On average, Scandinavian-Americans earn substantially more than their Scandinavian counterparts. Said differently, for a given test score, Americans are much more productive than Scandinavians. Despite differences in social spending, the incomes… Read More

  • One Reason GDP Growth Accelerated Under Trump
    One reason why real (peak-to-peak) GDP growth has accelerated from 1.5% per year during the Obama Administration to 3.3% per year under the Trump Administration. Read More

  • New Study Offers Worrisome News on Solutions to Global Warming
    Some worrisome news from the Economist on global warming: “On October 19th, the International Energy Agency reported that doubling world GDP by 2040 would require only a small rise in energy demand if everyone adopted strict standards, like Japan’s for vehicle-fuel efficiency. … [According to their logic,] higher efficiency means less fossil fuel must be burned—and less planet-cooking gas belched—to power the global economy. But some economists are not so sure. [In] 1865, William Stanley Jevons, a British economist, postulated that better steam engines would raise Britain’s overall demand for… Read More

  • Ed Conard Reacts to Yesterday’s Market Correction on FBN’s “Intelligence Report”
    Ed Conard reacts to yesterday’s market correction on Fox Business Network's “Intelligence Report" with host Ashley Webster. Read More

  • St Louis Fed Reminds Us That Work Effort in Europe Has Declined Steeply St. Louis Fed Reminds Us That Work Effort in Europe Has Declined Steeply
    St. Louis Fed economist Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria reminds us that work effort in Europe has declined steeply. Ed Prescott and others conclude, “tax rates alone account for most of the…differences in labor supply for the major advanced industrial countries.”   Read More

  • Economist Chart Measuring Political Polarization Is Revealing Economist Chart Measuring Political Polarization Is Revealing
    I thought this Economist chart measuring political polarization was revealing. Read More

  • Ed Conard Debates the Economics of Universal Healthcare on Fox News “Cavuto: Coast to Coast”
    Ed Conard debates the economics of Sen. Bernie Sanders's universal healthcare proposal with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network's "Cavuto: Coast to Coast". Read More

  • Study Shows Prediction Market Better Predictor of Scientific Reproducibility Than Editors of Nature and Science Study Shows Prediction Market Better Predictor of Scientific Reproducibility Than Editors of Nature and Science
    A recent study shows a prediction market is a better predictor of scientific reproducibility than the editors of the journals Nature and Science (who have only a 62% chance of accurately identifying reproducibility). Telltale signs of irreproducibility include newsworthy results. "Consider the new results from the Social Sciences Replication Project, in which 24 researchers attempted to replicate social-science studies published between 2010 and 2015 in Nature and Science—the world’s top two scientific journals. ... As it turned out, that finding was entirely predictable. While the SSRP team was doing their experimental… Read More

  • While Manufacturing Plant and Equipment Increase Blue Collar Productivity, IT Investment Largely Increases High-Skilled Productivity
    Unlike manufacturing plant and equipment that increase blue collar productivity, IT investment largely increases high-skilled productivity. Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-techs-growth-comes-with-a-big-bill-1531819800 Read More

  • Why the U.S. Needs A Lot More Ultra-High-Skilled Immigration
    Why the U.S. needs a lot more ultra-high-skilled immigration via @AbacusNews. Read More

  • Ed Conard in NRO: Free-Market Republicans Risk Irrelevance by Ignoring the Concerns of Blue-Collar Voters Read My New National Review Op-Ed: Free-Market Republicans Risk Irrelevance by Ignoring the Concerns of Blue-Collar Voters
    Free-market Republicans must recognize they can’t build a winning coalition without the president’s supporters. In our two-party democracy, agendas without winning coalitions are largely irrelevant. Edward Conard National Review Online June 16, 2018 Prior to the president’s victory, protectors of free enterprise, foreign-policy hawks, and social conservatives controlled the GOP by giving each other what they wanted most: lower taxes and restrained spending; larger defense budgets; and judges who limited the federal government. President Trump’s supporters upended this coalition, seized control of the GOP, and won the presidency with victories… Read More

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HIGHLIGHTS
  • Read Former White House CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett’s Interview of Ed Conard in National Review
    In National Review, Kevin Hassett, the former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, asks Ed Conard to defend conservative free market capitalism and how it promotes entrepreneurial risk-taking that has grown middle-class incomes faster than Europe. Five Questions for Ed Conard National Review Online August 21, 2020 1) Many liberals claim capitalism no longer works for the middle and working class. Is it true? No. According to the Congressional Budget Office, prior to the pandemic, middle-class incomes had grown 60 percent more than inflation since 1980. The income of the poorest… Read More

  • My Oxford University Press Chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” Is Available Free Online
    Oxford University Press has provided free online access to my chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” for a limited time in their new book “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality.”  In the chapter, I argue, “Inequality is mostly the result of an increasing premium on returns from risk and high-skilled labor ushered in by technological disruption and the feedback loop of elite talent working to increase their own productivity—a logical outcome when properly trained talent constrains growth. The answer … lies in increasing the ratio of high-… Read More

  • Ed Conard Discusses His Oxford University Chapter at Harvard’s Program on Constitutional Government
    Ed Conard recently joined Harvard’s Harvey Mansfield to discuss his Oxford University Press chapter, “The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies,” at Harvard University’s Program on Constitutional Government. The video, audio, and text of his speech and the Q&A session are available below. Opening Speech AUDIO Q&A PART 1 AUDIO Q&A PART 2 AUDIO 14 Questions for Ed Conard Tom Palmer (Snr. Fellow, Cato Institute): Do we have the ability to recruit high-skilled labor from around the world? Can we identify and restrict immigration only to them? What happens to… Read More

  • My chapter, “The Economics of Inequality,” joins Saez, Burkhauser, and other distinguished economists in Oxford University Press’ new “United States Income, Wealth, Consumption, and Inequality”
    In my chapter, “Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies," I argue, “Inequality is mostly the result of an increasing premium on returns from risk and high-skilled labor ushered in by technological disruption and the feedback loop of elite talent working to increase their own productivity—a logical outcome when properly trained talent constrains growth. The answer … lies in increasing the ratio of high- to low-skilled workers chiefly by training and recruiting more high-scoring domestic and immigrant workers. Rather than greater income redistribution slowing growth by dampening high-skilled productivity and incentives… Read More

  • CBS Sunday Morning Features “The Upside of Inequality”
    “CBS Sunday Morning” feature on inequality, which includes Hitler, Marie Antoinette, beatings, starving paupers in coffins, Thomas Piketty, and poverty statistics that don’t account for the trillion dollars America spends helping the poor, gives me 20 seconds to defend capitalism. Here are all the things I said that they chose not to use.   Read More

  • Lies, Damned Lies, and Steve Rattner’s Statistics
    Lies, Damned Lies, And Steve Rattner’s Statistics If liberal economists could win the economic debate with honest arguments, they would make them. As President Reagan once joked, “Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.” In his New York Times op-ed, Steve Rattner adds his name to the list of people willing to compromise their reputation to mislead the American people. No serious economist would measure a president’s performance blindly from the day they stepped into… Read More

  • Ed Conard Featured in CQ Researcher Report “Inequality in America: Can the Growing Wealth Gap Be Closed?”
    CQ Researcher released its latest report “Inequality in America: Can the Growing Wealth Gap Be Closed?” featuring an interview with Ed Conard. Excerpts from the report: On incentivizing risk-taking to grow the economy: Edward Conard, a visiting scholar at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI), calls the wealth gap an inevitable byproduct of an economy that prospers by rewarding innovators and risk-takers. Before the coronavirus struck, the United States had enjoyed a strong economy with low unemployment rates and rising wages. After an 11-year bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial… Read More

  • Joe Scarborough and I debate President Trump's New Immigration Plan on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Joe Scarborough and Ed Conard Debate Pres. Trump’s Immigration Plan on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”
    Joe Scarborough and I debate President Trump’s new immigration plan and its emphasis on high-skilled immigration to produce economic growth on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Read More

  • Ed Conard in NRO My new National Review op-ed explains why CBO expects the tax cut to pay for itself
    Is the tax cut expected to pay for itself? Yes — if we use the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast and any economically logical standard, the tax cut makes both current and future generations better off. The CBO now expects the nominal gross domestic product to increase nearly $750 billion more per year by 2020 than in its forecast prior to the tax cut. It originally attributed about one third of that growth to the tax-cut legislation — even by that estimate, the cut more than pays for itself. The CBO… Read More

  • USA Today logo Read My USA Today Op-Ed: “Tax Cut Law Helps Future Generations”
    Tax Cut Law Helps Future Generations A one-time increase in gross domestic product that generations can enjoy for years to come is not a 'sugar high' Borrowing to buy an asset that produces more income than the interest expense makes your children richer. The debt doesn’t make them poorer. Without this basic understanding of finance, deficit hawks can’t distinguish deficit-financed consumption from borrowing that increases the economy’s capacity to pay the interest on the borrowed money, including any resulting increase in the interest rate. The latter makes future generations richer,… Read More

  • WSJ logo My Op-ed Today’s WSJ: Is the Tax Cut Paying For Itself? By a Mile.
    Tax Reform Is Covering Its Costs Faster growth is on track to outpace debt in the next decade. Is the 2017 tax reform paying for itself? It’s a complicated question, but the critics have made up their minds. Outlets like the Tax Policy Center claim the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has diminished federal revenue rather than increase it as some supporters predicted. Other skeptics lament surging government deficits and debt. Some point to last year’s brief economic spurt as evidence of the law’s failure to drive long-term growth. Even… Read More

  • Read My New National Review Op-Ed: “Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About 70 Percent Tax Rates” Read My New National Review Op-Ed: “Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About 70% Tax Rates”
    Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About 70% Tax Rates Their only justification is to confiscate others’ money. My op-ed in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal argued that academic justifications for 70 percent marginal tax rates, such as Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez’s, are nothing more than a veneer intended to deceive a wider audience that doesn’t know better. Saez’s expansion of his justification for confiscatory taxes in the New York Times does little to prove otherwise. Diamond and Saez’s original argument for a 70 percent tax rate –  that it would enhance both tax revenue and social welfare – ignores the… Read More

  • WSJ logo Read My New Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: “The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates”
      The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal would smother investment and innovation, leaving America poorer. Newly elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent her first few weeks on Capitol Hill calling for a 70% top marginal income-tax rate, and suddenly the debate over optimal rates has reopened. To support her charge, some liberals are citing a 2011 study by economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez, which advocates for confiscatory upper-range tax rates. But a quick look at their analysis reveals grave caveats that only an advocate of higher taxes could… Read More

  • Ed Conard in NRO: Free-Market Republicans Risk Irrelevance by Ignoring the Concerns of Blue-Collar Voters Read My New National Review Op-Ed: Free-Market Republicans Risk Irrelevance by Ignoring the Concerns of Blue-Collar Voters
    Free-market Republicans must recognize they can’t build a winning coalition without the president’s supporters. In our two-party democracy, agendas without winning coalitions are largely irrelevant. Edward Conard National Review Online June 16, 2018 Prior to the president’s victory, protectors of free enterprise, foreign-policy hawks, and social conservatives controlled the GOP by giving each other what they wanted most: lower taxes and restrained spending; larger defense budgets; and judges who limited the federal government. President Trump’s supporters upended this coalition, seized control of the GOP, and won the presidency with victories… Read More

  • Debating Inequality, Innovation, and High-Skilled Immigration on Conversations with Bill Kristol Debating Inequality, Innovation, and High-Skilled Immigration on “Conversations with Bill Kristol”
    Bill Kristol and I debate income inequality, innovation, and why only high-skilled immigration can grow the American economy fast enough to pay for retiring baby boomers without damaging the economy with high taxes and slower growth. Watch here on "Conversations with Bill Kristol."     Read More

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