“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
AI Summary.People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of those leaving for other states, according to an analysis of Internal Revenue Service data. A residence-planning firm counts 38,800 millionaires in Miami, up 94% over a decade.
Arian Campo-FloresThe Wall Street Journal
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Miami illustrates wealth-driven bifurcation: new arrivals report ~$178K average AGI, among the highest in the US, even as the metro leads major cities in net out-migration. Luxury spending and tax revenue are rising; the middle class is being priced out.
Are wealthier newcomers replacing lower-income residents leaving Miami?
Core argument: People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of people leaving the county for other states, according to Maria Ilcheva's analysis of 2022–23 IRS data.
People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had on average $178,000 in adjusted gross income, more than double that of people who left the county for other states, according to an analysis of 2022-23 Internal Revenue Service data by Maria Ilcheva, associate director of the Jorge M. Pérez Metropolitan Center at Florida International University. Those coming from Manhattan earned on average $358,000, and those from Chicago earned on average $711,000. The number of millionaires in Miami soared 94% to 38,800 between 2014 and 2024, according to Henley & Partners, a residence and citizenship planning firm. That was the second-largest percentage increase among the U.S. cities it studied, behind the San Francisco Bay Area.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
People moving to Miami-Dade County from other states had average adjusted gross income of $178,000, more than double that of people leaving the county for other states, according to Maria Ilcheva's analysis of 2022–23 IRS data.
Arrivals to Miami-Dade from Manhattan earned an average of $358,000 and those from Chicago an average of $711,000, according to the Florida International University analysis of IRS data.
Miami's millionaire count rose 94% to 38,800 between 2014 and 2024, the second-largest percentage increase among U.S. cities studied by Henley & Partners, behind the San Francisco Bay Area.
Related Articles:
Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class— Florida's net domestic migration has slowed to a trickle as prime-working-age residents leave citing affordability and arrivals from other states decline. An influx of wealthy newcomers has helped drive up home prices, inflation in parts of the state outpaced the national average, home-insurance rates soared, and deaths began outnumbering births.
With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025— Census population estimates show urban counties growing more slowly than suburbs, smaller metropolitan areas, and rural areas, with all county types slowing as immigration fell and the slowdown especially sharp in urban counties. Domestic migration is driven more by affordability, with people leaving expensive urban counties for cheaper suburbs and smaller communities.
Where Americans Choose to Move and Where They Leave— County-level mapping of net domestic migration within the United States shows some counties gained net movers equal to 10% or more of their 2020 population while others lost an equivalent share, excluding international moves.
AI Summary.Statistics Canada reports 16.3% of millennials aged 25 to 39 lived with their parents in 2021, compared with 8.2% of baby boomers at the same age in 1991, with the pattern most pronounced in expensive cities. Homeownership among 25-to-39-year-olds was 49.9%, down from about 56% for baby boomers and Gen Xers at that age.
Nojoud Al MalleesBloomberg
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16.3% of Canadians aged 25–39 were living with their parents in 2021, up from 8.2% of baby boomers at the same age in 1991.
Are more young adults living with parents and owning fewer homes?
Core argument: A Statistics Canada study based on the most recent census data found 16.3% of millennials aged 25 to 39 lived with their parents in 2021, up from 8.2% of baby boomers at the same age in 1991.
Millennials were twice as likely to live with their parents in 2021 than baby boomers were at the same age, a trend that was particularly acute in expensive cities but not fully attributed to affordability challenges. A new Statistics Canada study based on the most recent census data found 16.3% of millennials aged 25 to 39 were living with parents, up from 8.2% of baby boomers of the same age in 1991. After taking into account the share of millennials living with parents, the study found a lower rate of homeownership among young adults in 2021. While 55.9% of baby boomers in 1991 and 56.2% of Gen Xers in 2006 owned a home when they were aged 25 and 39, that proportion was only 49.9% for millennials.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
A Statistics Canada study based on the most recent census data found 16.3% of millennials aged 25 to 39 lived with their parents in 2021, up from 8.2% of baby boomers at the same age in 1991.
After accounting for the share of millennials living with parents, Statistics Canada found homeownership among those aged 25 to 39 was 49.9% for millennials in 2021, compared with 55.9% for baby boomers in 1991 and 56.2% for Gen Xers in 2006.
The trend of young Canadians living with parents was particularly acute in expensive cities, though Statistics Canada did not fully attribute it to affordability challenges.
Related Articles:
A “Heat Dome” of Immigration— Canada has adopted some of the most aggressive immigration policies in the OECD, adding 1.273m residents in a year to reach a population of 41m — proportionally equivalent to the US admitting more than 10m immigrants annually. Canadians are increasingly angry as housing prices soar, sprawl expands, and traffic worsens.
Canada’s Population Dips for Second Straight Quarter, Leading to First Annual Fall On Record— Statistics Canada estimates the country's population fell by about 102,436 people, or 0.2%, over the course of a year to 41.47 million, its first annual decline on record, driven by a steep reduction in temporary residents. Deaths exceeded births in the latest quarter, the second consecutive quarterly population drop.
How Canada Is Responding to American Mercantilism— US tariffs as high as 35% on certain goods not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement have coincided with falling Canadian exports, weaker business confidence and investment, a softening labor market, and a contraction in Canadian output. Canada has responded by aiming to double non-US exports within 10 years, expanding fiscal spending and deregulation, and keeping monetary policy loose.
AI Summary.Harvard's Remodeling Futures Program reports that 49% of U.S. home-improvement spending now goes to necessary replacements such as heating and cooling systems, with homeowners spending an average of $9,030 on replacement projects like windows, up 59% from 2009 after adjusting for inflation.
Veronica DagherWall Street Journal
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America’s housing stock is aging, with the median age of a home climbing to 44 years old. The cost of maintaining a home has increased, with real structural repair costs rising ~14.1%, and plumbing costs 23.6%, between 2022 and 2024.
Are aging homes pushing homeowner repair and replacement costs higher?
Core argument: U.S. homeowners spent an average of $9,030 on replacement projects such as windows in 2023, up 59% from 2009 after adjusting for inflation, according to Rachel Drew of Harvard's Remodeling Futures Program.
49% percent of all improvement spending is now for necessary replacements like HVAC that owners can’t delay, said Rachel Drew, director of Harvard’s Remodeling Futures Program. In 2023, homeowners in the U.S. spent an average of $9,030 on replacement projects such as windows, up 59% from 2009 after adjusting for inflation, said Harvard’s Drew. Financial advisers traditionally suggested setting aside 1% of a home’s value annually for upkeep, but many now argue that isn’t enough. While 1% may cover routine upkeep, 2% to 3% provides a more realistic cushion for expected maintenance, home-improvement projects and unexpected repairs, particularly for older homes, said Angie Hicks, co-founder of home-services company Angi.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
U.S. homeowners spent an average of $9,030 on replacement projects such as windows in 2023, up 59% from 2009 after adjusting for inflation, according to Rachel Drew of Harvard's Remodeling Futures Program.
Rachel Drew of Harvard's Remodeling Futures Program said 49% of all home-improvement spending now goes to necessary replacements such as HVAC that owners cannot delay.
Angie Hicks, co-founder of home-services company Angi, said the traditional advice to set aside 1% of a home's value annually may cover routine upkeep, while 2% to 3% offers a more realistic cushion, particularly for older homes.
Related Articles:
Inflation Is Down, But Americans Still Feel an Affordability Squeeze— Average US weekly pay has risen 31% over six years, outpacing prices, but inflation erased most of those gains. Grocery prices are up about 30% since early 2020, a young married couple now needs 70% of annual household income for an average down payment versus 58% in 2019.
Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective— The authors estimate that tighter land use regulation accounts for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between US construction and the rest of the economy, with weak innovation and quality mismeasurement each accounting for 20%. Across major economies, regulation and mismeasurement explain most of US construction's underperformance.
Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity— U.S. construction labor productivity in 2023 was essentially unchanged from 1948, with real output per worker in 2020 more than 30% below its 1970 level, even as aggregate U.S. labor productivity tripled between 1950 and 2020. Construction accounted for about 4.5% of U.S. GDP in 2024.
AI Summary.An analysis of the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which has tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families since 1968, finds that first-time US home buyers are on average 35 years old — three years older than a decade earlier and eight years older than in the 1970s.
Aziz SunderjiHome Economics
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The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.
Are Americans buying their first homes at older ages?
Core argument: First-time U.S. home buyers are on average 35 years old, three years older than a decade ago and eight years older than in the 1970s, according to an analysis of the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
At what age do people buy their first home? My analysis of data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) shows that, on average, they’re 35—three years older than a decade ago, and eight years older than in the 1970s. The PSID is a remarkable dataset. Like wildlife researchers tagging a pod of whales, the researchers at the University of Michigan have tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families they began studying in 1968. This ‘longitudinal’ data allows us to observe the kids in these families as they leave home, form their own households, rent their first apartments, and eventually become first time buyers (FTBs) of homes. And because specific individuals are tracked over time, we can pinpoint the exact moment someone transitions from renting to owning for the first time, and how old they were when it happened. No other U.S. dataset can do this, and none go as far back as the 1960s.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
First-time U.S. home buyers are on average 35 years old, three years older than a decade ago and eight years older than in the 1970s, according to an analysis of the University of Michigan's Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
The Panel Study of Income Dynamics has tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families first studied in 1968, allowing observation of when specific people leave home, rent, and first buy a home.
No other U.S. dataset can pinpoint the exact moment an individual transitions from renting to owning, and none extends back as far as the 1960s.
Related Articles:
What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership?— At age 30, 31% of Millennials still live with parents or roommates versus 19% of Boomers, and only 61% of Millennial household heads are married versus 77% of Boomers; the analysis attributes most of the 18-percentage-point home ownership gap (25% versus 43%) to these two differences. Among married household heads, the ownership gap narrows to 8 points.
Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans— Using post-tax, post-transfer income data, the authors find each of the past four US generations was better off than the prior one, with Millennials' real median household income at ages 36–40 18% above the previous generation's, versus 34% for the Silent Generation, 27% for Baby Boomers, and 16% for Generation X.
Why Are Young Adults in the English-Speaking World So Unhappy?— The share of young adults regularly experiencing stress and anger has risen sharply in the US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand while remaining largely stable elsewhere in the West. Real house prices since 1995 are up 85% in the US and over 200% in the other five countries.
AI Summary.New US homeowners spent 26% of their income on housing in 2024 versus 20% for existing homeowners, a six-percentage-point gap that is the widest in nearly 40 years. Historically the two groups' costs moved together, with the gap holding at roughly two to four percentage points.
Jess RemingtonAgglomerations
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As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.
How wide is the housing cost gap between new and existing homeowners?
Core argument: New homeowners spent 26% of their income on housing in 2024 versus 20% for existing homeowners, a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years.
Historically, monthly housing costs for new and existing homeowners have tended to move in tandem. From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, both groups saw costs rise during booms and fall during downturns, with the gap between them remaining relatively stable at two to four percentage points. That pattern briefly reversed during the Great Recession, when new buyers were able to purchase homes at depressed prices and consequently spent slightly less of their income on housing than existing owners. By 2017, the typical two-point gap had returned. The current divergence began in earnest in 2022. By 2024, new homeowners were spending 26% of their income on housing, compared to 20% for existing homeowners — a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years. Although new homeowners spent a slightly larger share of their income on housing at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 (28%), the gap with existing homeowners was smaller (four percentage points).
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
New homeowners spent 26% of their income on housing in 2024 versus 20% for existing homeowners, a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years.
From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, housing cost burdens for new and existing homeowners moved together, with the gap holding at two to four percentage points; the current divergence began in earnest in 2022.
At the 2007 housing bubble peak, new homeowners spent a slightly larger 28% of income on housing, but the gap with existing homeowners was four percentage points.
Related Articles:
The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly— Variation in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index that inflation and unemployment cannot explain is strongly correlated with growth in consumer borrowing costs, such as mortgage and car loan rates. The authors estimate that including interest payments and homeownership costs in the consumer price index would raise measured inflation from 3% to 9%.
NAR Says the Typical First-Time Homebuyer Age Was 40 This Year, Up from 33 in 2021—but Is This Accurate?— The National Association of Realtors' mail survey, with a 3.5% response rate, puts the typical first-time homebuyer at age 40, while New York Federal Reserve credit-report data for the same period show an average of 36.2 years and a median of 33. The survey underrepresents buyers under 35 by 17 percentage points.
Affordability, Part II— Home ownership functions as the modern marker of full participation in American society, and while most people's incomes have risen faster than the cost of a broad basket of consumer goods, housing has become substantially less affordable over the past generation. The author argues encouraging more housing construction is the most important element of a long-run affordability agenda.
AI Summary.About 18% of California property transfers, nearly 60,000 homes, were made through inheritance last year, up from 12% in 2019 and roughly double the national share of 8.8%, according to real-estate data firm Cotality. That is a record for the state in data going back to 1995.
Nicole Friedman and Veronica DagherWall Street Journal
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17.5% of property transfers in California last year were inheritances, up from 12% in 2019. Nationally, 8.8% of property transfers in 2025 were inheritances.
Is inheritance becoming the main path to homeownership in California?
Core argument: Inheritance accounted for about 18% of all California property transfers last year, nearly 60,000 homes, a record in Cotality's data going back to 1995 and up from 12% in 2019.
Inheritance is one of the last reliable ways for younger Californians to own their first home. About 18% of all property transfers in the state last year, representing nearly 60,000 homes, were made through inheritance, according to a recent analysis by real-estate data firm Cotality. That share is a record for California in data going back to 1995, up from 12% in 2019. It is also roughly double the national share of 8.8% last year.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Inheritance accounted for about 18% of all California property transfers last year, nearly 60,000 homes, a record in Cotality's data going back to 1995 and up from 12% in 2019.
California's 18% inherited-transfer share was roughly double the national share of 8.8% last year, according to real-estate data firm Cotality.
Inheritance is one of the last reliable paths to first-time homeownership for younger Californians.
Related Articles:
How To Get Rich in 2025— Academic estimates compiled by The Economist indicate inheritances, after falling over the 20th century, were worth about 10% of GDP on average by the end of the 2010s, with roughly $6tn inherited across the rich world in a year. Falling family sizes mean each inheritance is spread across fewer heirs.
The Gilded Age and Beyond: The Persistence of Elite Wealth in American History— The authors find that most extremely wealthy Americans fall out of the top tail within their lifetimes, and that grandparental wealth is associated with reaching the top 1% in a non-linear way. Still, over 90% of grandchildren of top 1% grandfathers did not reach that level.
AI Summary.Homeownership among married 30-year-olds has changed little (63% to 60%), and rose from 25% to 29% among single 30-year-olds living alone, while 30-year-olds living with parents are mostly male, never-married, and without a college degree. Among men without a college degree, the marriage rate fell from 58% to 36%.
Aziz SunderjiHome Economics
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The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.
Do falling marriage rates explain more 30-year-olds living with parents?
Core argument: Among men without a college degree, the group most likely to live with their parents, the marriage rate has fallen from 58% to 36%.
Among married 30-year-olds, the homeownership rate has barely budged—63% in 1990, 60% today. Among single 30-year-olds living alone, the homeownership rate actually rose, from 25% to 29%. The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), has never been married (89%), and doesn’t have a college degree (73%). Only 27% have a bachelor’s, compared to 42% of all 30-year-olds. In the early 1990s the profile of those living at home at 30 looked nearly identical: 64% male, 77% never married, and less educated than average. [However], in the ’90s, a greater proportion of young, less educated men would have gotten married and moved out. Among men without a college degree—the group most likely to be living with their parents—the marriage rate has plunged from 58% to 36%.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Among men without a college degree, the group most likely to live with their parents, the marriage rate has fallen from 58% to 36%.
Homeownership among married 30-year-olds has barely moved, from 63% in 1990 to 60% today, while among single 30-year-olds living alone it rose from 25% to 29%.
The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), never married (89%), and without a college degree (73%), with only 27% holding a bachelor's versus 42% of all 30-year-olds.
Related Articles:
Changes in Milestones of Adulthood— Among US young adults aged 25–34, the share completing a high school or college degree rose 9 percentage points to 83%, while the share ever married fell 18 points to 44% and the share living with a child fell 16 points to 39%. Economic milestones became more common as family formation milestones became less common.
What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership?— At age 30, 31% of Millennials still live with parents or roommates versus 19% of Boomers, and only 61% of Millennial household heads are married versus 77% of Boomers; the analysis attributes most of the 18-percentage-point home ownership gap (25% versus 43%) to these two differences. Among married household heads, the ownership gap narrows to 8 points.
Young Adults Are Growing Increasingly Economically Dislocated— The share of young adults who are neither in education, employed, seeking work, nor caring for children is rising in many countries, among both young men and young women. Including stay-at-home parents in the standard "not in education, employment or training" measure obscures this increase.
AI Summary.The authors estimate that tighter land use regulation accounts for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between US construction and the rest of the economy, with weak innovation and quality mismeasurement each accounting for 20%. Across major economies, regulation and mismeasurement explain most of US construction's underperformance.
Elsie PengGoldman Sachs
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Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.
Why has construction productivity growth lagged the rest of the economy?
Core argument: The authors estimate that tightening US land use regulations accounts for 40% of the productivity growth gap between construction and the rest of the US economy since 1965.
Our analysis shows that, within the US, the tightening of land use regulations has accounted for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between construction and the rest of the economy since 1965, and the lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement have each accounted for 20%. Looking across countries, we find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the underperformance of the US construction industry since 1991, relative to other major G10 countries.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The authors estimate that tightening US land use regulations accounts for 40% of the productivity growth gap between construction and the rest of the US economy since 1965.
Lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement each account for 20% of the US construction productivity growth gap relative to the rest of the economy since 1965, according to the authors' analysis.
Across countries, the authors find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the US construction industry's underperformance since 1991 relative to other major G10 countries.
Related Articles:
Stagnant Construction Productivity Is a Worldwide Problem— Construction labor productivity has been roughly flat or declining since the 1990s across most of Western Europe, Japan, and Korea, a pattern consistent with the flat US trend. Countries often held up as models — Sweden and Japan for prefabrication, China for infrastructure — show little or unremarkable construction productivity improvement.
Five Decades of Decline: U.S. Construction Sector Productivity— U.S. construction labor productivity in 2023 was essentially unchanged from 1948, with real output per worker in 2020 more than 30% below its 1970 level, even as aggregate U.S. labor productivity tripled between 1950 and 2020. Construction accounted for about 4.5% of U.S. GDP in 2024.
The Strange and Awful Path of Productivity in the U.S. Construction Sector— U.S. construction sector labor productivity and total factor productivity grew faster than the whole economy in the 1950s and 1960s, then fell, ending 2020 below their 1950 levels while economywide labor productivity and total factor productivity were 290% and 230% higher. Construction labor productivity fell about 1% a year from 1970 to 2020.
