“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
AI Summary.The average statutory US tariff rate stands at 11.1% and, under current law including scheduled increases, is projected to reach 11.8% by year-end. The authors estimate current-law tariffs will raise consumer prices by about 0.7% and generate roughly $1.9tn over ten years, with revenue somewhat lower after accounting for tariffs' negative effect on economic output.
John IselinYale University
Date Posted:
The US’s average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1% and is set to rise to 11.8% by the end of year. John Iselin projects that the current regime will raise ~$1.9T in revenue over 10 years.
How much will current tariffs raise prices and revenue?
Core argument: The average U.S. statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1%, down about 0.3pp after Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301.
As of July 24th, the average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1% after falling by about 0.3pp when Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, which includes several scheduled tariff increases in the coming months, this figure is set to be 11.8% by the end of this year. We estimate the ultimate consumer price impact of current-law tariff policy to be about 0.7%. Over the next ten years, we estimate that current-law tariffs will raise about $1.9 trillion. These numbers are somewhat lower, though, after taking into account the negative impact of tariffs on GDP.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The average U.S. statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1%, down about 0.3pp after Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301.
Under current law, which includes several scheduled tariff increases in the coming months, the average statutory tariff rate is set to reach 11.8% by the end of this year.
Current-law tariff policy is estimated to raise consumer prices by about 0.7% and to bring in about $1.9 trillion over ten years, with both figures somewhat lower after accounting for the negative impact of tariffs on GDP.
Related Articles:
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?— The authors estimate that 94% of U.S. tariff costs were borne domestically over the first eight months of 2025, with a 10% tariff associated with only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices. Pass-through into U.S. import prices later declined to 86%, shifting more of the burden to foreign exporters.
The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances— The International Monetary Fund calculates that global current-account deficits plus surpluses reached 3.7% of world gross domestic product, after fluctuating between 1% and 3% until the early 2000s. The US deficit of $1.1tn is the largest single imbalance, and the Fund estimates a budget deficit of 2% of GDP raises the current-account deficit by 0.5% of GDP.
Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States— The authors find that the combined effect of U.S.-China trade war import tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and farm subsidies on employment in exposed U.S. locations was at best a wash and possibly mildly negative, while residents of tariff-protected areas became less likely to identify as Democrats and more likely to vote Republican.
