“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
AI Summary.A study of a large public urban university system finds that high school grade point average is a far stronger predictor of student academic success than SAT scores, contrasting with analyses of highly selective colleges that found the SAT superior. Under-represented minority students were less likely to graduate within six years at every grade point average level.
Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al.National Bureau of Economic Research
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.
Do high school grades predict college success better than test scores?
Core argument: In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.
Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
In a study of 2010–2019 cohorts at a large public urban university system, high school GPA predicts student academic success far better than the SAT, contrary to analyses of Ivy-plus colleges that found the SAT superior.
Binned scatter plots of six-year graduation rates against high school GPA, controlling for SAT score, show under-represented minority students are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of high school GPA than non-URM students.
Stratifying six-year graduation rates by receipt of the maximum Pell grant, a proxy for a low-income household, shows no similar gap to the one found between under-represented minority and non-URM students.
Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force— The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
AI Summary.White men's share of positions across US culture and technology industries declined markedly over roughly a decade: from 48% to 11.9% of lower-level TV writers, 39% to 18% of Harvard humanities tenure-track posts, nearly half to under a third of Google's workforce, and 55.8% to 33.8% of mid-level Amazon managers.
Jacob SavageCompact Magazine
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.
How much has white men's share of culture and tech jobs fallen?
Core argument: White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
White men fell from 48% of lower-level TV writers in 2011 to 11.9% in 2024, and from 39% of Harvard humanities tenure-track positions in 2014 to 18% in 2023.
Mid-level Amazon managers went from 55.8% white male in 2014 to 33.8% in 2024, a decline of nearly 40%, while entry-level Amazon professionals were 42.3% white male in 2014.
At Google, white men fell from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to under a third by 2024, a 34% decline, part of the author's case that 2014 was the hinge year when DEI became institutionalized.
Related Articles:
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force— The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
US PISA Results By Subpopulation— On the international PISA student assessments, American Asian and White students ranked at the top, American Hispanic students outscored Hispanic students elsewhere, and American Black students performed well. In reading, American Asian students placed first and American White students third.
AI Summary.U.S. twelfth-graders' average math and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell to their lowest levels on record, with math the worst since that test began in 2005 and reading below any point since 1992. The share rated proficient slid 2 percentage points to 35% in reading and 22% in math.
Matt BarnumWall Street Journal
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.
Have U.S. twelfth-grade math and reading scores fallen to record lows?
Core argument: U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.
American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
U.S. twelfth-graders' average math score was the worst since the current National Assessment of Educational Progress math test began in 2005, and their reading score fell below any point since that assessment started in 1992.
The share of U.S. 12th-graders scoring proficient fell 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024, to 35% in reading and 22% in math, according to results released by the U.S. Education Department.
In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay but only one in five could draw a text-supported conclusion from it, while in math just under half converted a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.
Related Articles:
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power?— The share of Americans reporting they read a book in the past year has fallen below half, alongside declining performance in numeracy and problem-solving in most countries. The share of adults unable to use mathematical reasoning to evaluate the validity of statements averages 25% in high-income countries and 35% in the US.
AI Summary.An analysis of admissions and transcript records at Ivy-Plus colleges finds standardized test scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope 4x greater than high school grade point average, controlling for race, gender, and socioeconomic status. The authors find no evidence test scores underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds.
John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele TineNational Bureau of Economic Research
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Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman
Do standardized test scores predict college grades better than high school GPA?
Core argument: Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Analyzing admissions and transcript records at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT/ACT scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope four times greater than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status.
Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds, who do not outperform and in some cases underperform other students with the same test score.
Much of the correlation between test scores and academic performance remains after controlling for demographic characteristics, which the authors suggest indicates test scores provide information on applicants' academic preparation not available elsewhere in the application file.
Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges— Using admissions records and first-year grades at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT and ACT scores substantially predict college academic success even among students with the same high school grades, while high school grade point average does little to predict it. Conditional on test scores, students from lower- and higher-resourced high schools have virtually identical college grades.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
AI Summary.Public schools in heavily Democratic areas often stayed closed for close to a year, while schools in some Republican areas reopened after only the initial spring closure. Eight of the 10 states with the largest losses in student achievement since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections, and eight of the 10 with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican.
David LeonhardtNew York Times
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.@DLeonhardt reports a sharp partisan gap in learning loss: 8 of the 10 states with the biggest math declines since 2019 – likely due to prolonged school closures – voted Democratic, while 8 of the 10 smallest shortfalls voted Republican.
Do longer school closures explain larger student achievement losses?
Core argument: Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground in test scores since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections, while eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican.
Many public schools in heavily Democratic areas stayed closed for almost a year — from the spring of 2020 until the spring of 2021. In some Republican areas, by contrast, schools remained closed for only the spring of 2020. Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections. And eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican. [Higher initial scores don’t] explain the post-pandemic patterns. For example, New Jersey (a blue state) and Utah (a red state) both had high math scores in 2019, but New Jersey has fared much worse since then.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground in test scores since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections, while eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican.
Many public schools in heavily Democratic areas stayed closed from the spring of 2020 until the spring of 2021, whereas schools in some Republican areas were closed only for the spring of 2020.
Higher initial scores do not explain the post-pandemic patterns: New Jersey and Utah both had high math scores in 2019, but New Jersey has fared much worse since.
Related Articles:
Long COVID for Public Schools: Chronic Absenteeism Before and After the Pandemic— Nationwide chronic absenteeism — the share of students missing at least 10% of a school year — rose from 15% in 2018 to 28% in 2022, and although rates improved in 2023, they remained 75% above the pre-pandemic baseline. Chronic absenteeism is associated with lower standardized test scores, with the highest rates in lower-achieving, higher-poverty districts.
What the Data Says About Pandemic School Closures, Four Years Later— Among school districts with similar poverty levels, remote learning was associated with greater declines in student achievement, and a district-level analysis found community poverty rates and the length of school closures had roughly equal effects on outcomes. For each week spent remote, students in poor districts experienced steeper math losses than peers in richer districts.
Students Are Making a ‘Surprising’ Rebound From Pandemic Closures. But Some May Never Catch Up— An analysis of standardized test data led by Stanford and Harvard researchers finds elementary and middle-school students have regained about a third of pandemic learning losses in math and a quarter in reading. Because poorer districts lost more ground initially, the typical poor district remains nearly half a grade level behind, versus about a fifth for rich districts.
AI Summary.Race gaps in SAT scores are consistent across years, with most differences within the range expected from sampling error; the exceptions are Amerindian scores falling and Asian scores rising relative to White scores. The author attributes those shifts to changes in who selects into SAT test-taking rather than genuine population changes.
CremieuxCremieux Recueil
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In 2024 27% of Asians who took the SAT scored between 1400-1600; 7% of White, 2% of Hispanic, and 1% of Black test takers scored in that range. @cremieuxrecueil
Do shifts in SAT race gaps reflect who chooses to test?
Core argument: Setting Whites as the baseline with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, the author converts effect sizes (d) into SAT score gaps across racial groups, finding results consistent between years.
[I’ve] set Whites to the baseline for this graph and assume they have a mean of 100 with an SD of 15 and that gaps can be computed from d accordingly. Results are consistent between years, with most differences being within the range of expectations from sampling error. The exceptions are Amerindians and Asians, who, respectively, got much worse and much better relative to Whites. Why? I assume this reflects the continuing trend towards elite Asians selecting into SAT test-taking and elite Amerindians selecting out, rather than genuine population changes. To put these race differences in means and standard deviations into perspective, [the] graph of the data [is] scaled by population size.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Setting Whites as the baseline with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, the author converts effect sizes (d) into SAT score gaps across racial groups, finding results consistent between years.
Most year-over-year differences in SAT racial gaps fall within the range expected from sampling error, the exceptions being Amerindians and Asians, who scored much worse and much better relative to Whites.
The author assumes the Amerindian and Asian shifts reflect a continuing trend of elite Asians selecting into SAT test-taking and elite Amerindians selecting out, rather than genuine population changes.
Related Articles:
The Misguided War On The SAT— The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a nationwide test of elementary and middle school students with no test-prep industry around it, shows racial and economic gaps closely resembling those on the SAT and ACT. Researchers argue this indicates college admissions tests measure underlying learning, making score disparities a symptom rather than a cause of inequality.
Yale, Princeton and Duke Are Questioned Over Decline in Asian Students— Students for Fair Admissions, which won the Supreme Court case barring race-based admissions preferences, is threatening investigations and lawsuits against Princeton, Yale, and Duke over declines in Asian American enrollment that it says defied expectations. Asian American enrollment fell to 29% from 35% at Duke and to 24% from 30% at Yale.
Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges— Using admissions records and first-year grades at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges, the authors find SAT and ACT scores substantially predict college academic success even among students with the same high school grades, while high school grade point average does little to predict it. Conditional on test scores, students from lower- and higher-resourced high schools have virtually identical college grades.
AI Summary.Administrative data on over 350,000 men each in Finland and Norway show a convex relationship between earnings rank and cognitive ability measured by military conscription tests: top-percentile earners score about 1 standard deviation above median earners, who score about 0.5 above bottom-percentile earners. The lowest scores are almost absent among top earners.
Bernt Bratsberg, Ole Rogeberg and Marko TerviöEuropean Sociological Review
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The top-earning men in Finland and Norway score 1 standard deviation higher in cognitive ability than median earners. The ability curve is steepest at the top of the earnings range. @MarkoTervio @olerogeberg
Does cognitive ability rise more steeply among top earners?
Core argument: Men in the top earnings percentile in Finland and Norway score on average 1 standard deviation higher on military conscription cognitive tests than median earners, while median earners score about 0.5 standard deviation above the bottom percentile.
We document a convex relationship between earnings rank and cognitive ability [measured by military conscription scores] for men in Finland and Norway using administrative data on over 350,000 men in each country: the top earnings percentile score on average 1 standard deviation higher than median earners, while median earners score about 0.5 standard deviation higher than the bottom percentile of earners. Top earners also have substantially less variation in cognitive test scores. While some high-scoring men are observed to have very low earnings, the lowest cognitive scores are almost absent among the top earners. Overall, the joint distribution of earnings rank and ability is very similar in Finland and Norway. We find that the slope of the ability curve across earnings ranks is steepest in the upper tail, as is the slope of the earnings curve across cognitive ability.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Men in the top earnings percentile in Finland and Norway score on average 1 standard deviation higher on military conscription cognitive tests than median earners, while median earners score about 0.5 standard deviation above the bottom percentile.
Top earners in Finland and Norway show substantially less variation in cognitive test scores, with the lowest scores almost absent among them, even though some high-scoring men have very low earnings.
Administrative data on over 350,000 men in each country show the joint distribution of earnings rank and cognitive ability is very similar in Finland and Norway, with the ability and earnings slopes steepest in the upper tail.
Related Articles:
The Plateauing of Cognitive Ability Among Top Earners— Measured cognitive ability plateaus at higher wage levels, flattening around an annual wage of about €60,000 ($64,200) at under one standard deviation above average. The authors find no significant ability differences across the top three income percentiles, even though top-percentile earners make more than double those in the 98th percentile.
Toward An Understanding Of The Returns To Cognitive Skills Across Cohorts— The authors find that the estimated decline in labor market returns to pre-labor-market cognitive skills for white men across two U.S. youth cohorts depends critically on the widening and increased left-skewness of the test-score distribution, with declines appearing only at the lower end of that distribution.
Why Do Wages Grow Faster for Educated Workers?— College graduates sort into professional, non-routine occupations where wages rise much more with job tenure, and the author estimates this occupational sorting explains at least half of the life-cycle growth in the college wage premium. That premium is estimated at 22% at age 26, 49% at age 40, and 56% at age 60.
AI Summary.The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a nationwide test of elementary and middle school students with no test-prep industry around it, shows racial and economic gaps closely resembling those on the SAT and ACT. Researchers argue this indicates college admissions tests measure underlying learning, making score disparities a symptom rather than a cause of inequality.
David LeonhardtNew York Times
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Noting that test scores are predictive of academic and professional outcomes @DLeonhardt argues that standardized tests are the most meritocratic talent identification method. Raj Chetty notes, “The SAT is picking up fundamentals.”
Do college admissions tests measure learning rather than test prep?
Core argument: The NAEP, a nationwide test for elementary and middle school students that students do not take prep classes for, shows racial and economic gaps remarkably similar to those on the SAT and ACT.
The evidence suggests that [the advantages of well-off students] advantages cause a very small part of the gaps. Consider that other measures of learning — like the NAEP, a test that elementary and middle school students take nationwide — show similarly large racial and economic gaps. The federal government describes the NAEP as “the nation’s report card,” while education researchers consider it a rigorous measure of K-12 learning. And even though students do not take NAEP test prep classes, its demographic gaps look remarkably similar to those of the ACT and SAT. This similarity “is another piece of evidence that the SAT is picking up fundamentals,” said Raj Chetty, a Harvard economics professor who conducted the recent Ivy Plus study with Friedman and David Deming. “It strengthens the argument that the disparities in SAT scores are a symptom, not a cause, of inequality in the U.S.,” Chetty said.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The NAEP, a nationwide test for elementary and middle school students that students do not take prep classes for, shows racial and economic gaps remarkably similar to those on the SAT and ACT.
Raj Chetty, a Harvard economics professor who conducted the Ivy Plus study with Friedman and David Deming, said the NAEP–SAT similarity is another piece of evidence that the SAT is picking up fundamentals.
Chetty said the comparison strengthens the argument that disparities in SAT scores are a symptom, not a cause, of inequality in the United States.
How Ivy League Schools Tilt Your Odds in the Lottery of Life— Research classifying incomes by percentile finds that among top students, 19% of those who attended elite schools reach the richest 1% of the income distribution, versus 12% of those who did not. The authors compare these upper-tail outcomes to lottery tickets: elite schools offer many, most worth nothing, a few a jackpot.
Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure— The wage return to cognitive skills has declined, from about 10% higher hourly wages per standard deviation of test score in the 1980s and early 1990s to 4.5% in the 2000s and early 2010s, while returns to a bachelor's degree rose. Social skill-intensive occupations grew as a share of US jobs, with faster real wage growth.
