“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
AI Summary.Australia has begun vaccinating at-risk bird species against H5N1 bird flu, including 5,000 little penguins in Victoria, and has confirmed its first case in a long-nosed fur seal, a species for which no vaccine is approved. The government says the disease has not reached poultry or farms and human risk remains low.
Laura ChungNew York Times
Date Posted:
Australia confirmed its first case of H5N1 in June, and the virus has since rapidly spread, with at least 309 confirmed bird flu events that have killed more than 1,000 birds.
Can vaccinating wild birds contain a bird flu outbreak spreading to mammals?
Core argument: The Australian government began vaccinating at-risk bird species, including 5,000 little penguins in Victoria.
The Australian government began vaccinating at-risk bird species this month. Among those receiving the vaccination will be 5,000 little penguins in the state of Victoria. Authorities confirmed the first case of H5N1 in a long-nosed fur seal in South Australia last week. A second seal was suspected to have died from the disease on Monday. A vaccine has not yet been approved for use in Australian mammals. The disease has not been detected in poultry or on farms, according to the government, and the risk to humans remains low.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The Australian government began vaccinating at-risk bird species, including 5,000 little penguins in Victoria.
Australian authorities confirmed the first H5N1 case in a long-nosed fur seal in South Australia, and a second seal was suspected of dying from the disease.
No vaccine has been approved for use in Australian mammals, and the government reports H5N1 has not been detected in poultry or on farms, with the risk to humans remaining low.
Related Articles:
Bird Flu Is Back— Bird flu has killed nearly 7m farmed birds in the United States in recent months, including about 1.3m turkeys, pressuring the nation's turkey supply. The virus has affected more than 180m farmed birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers.
AI Summary.Analysis of ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians estimates selection coefficients at 9.7m genetic variants and finds pervasive directional selection, including increases in genetic scores for light skin pigmentation and negative selection against variants linked to type 2 diabetes risk and psychoses such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.
Ali Akbari, Annabel Perry, Alison Barton, Mohammadreza Kariminejad, et al.Nature
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database
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Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.
Has human genetic selection continued to shape traits across West Eurasia?
Core argument: Applying a new test for directional selection to ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians, 10,016 with newly reported data, the authors estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants to study how selection shapes the genetic architecture of complex traits.
We present a method for detecting directional selection in ancient DNA time-series data that tests for consistent trends in allele frequency change over time, and apply it to 15,836 West Eurasians (10,016 with new data). We estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants, enabling study of how Darwinian forces couple to allelic effects and shape the genetic architecture of complex traits. We focused on 12 traits of particular interest with significant signals from all three tests (Figure 4). One of the strongest signals is an increase over time in the PGS for light skin pigmentation. Type 2 diabetes risk factors give compelling signals of negative selection. We detected negative polygenic selection against alleles associated today with psychoses such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We finally observed signals of selection for combinations of alleles that today are associated with three correlated behavioural traits: scores on intelligence tests, household income and years of schooling. An important caveat is [that] these effects were measured in industrialized societies, and it remains unclear how these relate to phenotypes that were adaptive in the past.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Applying a new test for directional selection to ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians, 10,016 with newly reported data, the authors estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants to study how selection shapes the genetic architecture of complex traits.
Among 12 traits with significant signals from all three tests, one of the strongest is an increase over time in the polygenic score for light skin pigmentation, alongside negative selection on type 2 diabetes risk factors and on alleles associated today with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.
The authors observed signals of selection on combinations of alleles associated today with intelligence test scores, household income, and years of schooling, while cautioning that these effects were measured in industrialized societies and their relation to past adaptive phenotypes remains unclear.
Related Articles:
Pervasive Findings of Directional Selection Realize the Promise of Ancient DNA to Elucidate Human Adaptation— Analyzing ancient DNA for consistent trends in gene-variant frequency over time, the authors report that many hundreds of gene variants were affected by strong directional selection over the last ten millennia. They identify selection for variant combinations today associated with lighter skin color, lower schizophrenia and bipolar risk, slower health decline, and higher intelligence-test scores, income, and schooling.
Animal Mutation Rates Reveal Traits That Speed Evolution— An analysis of 68 vertebrate species published in Nature found germline mutation rates varied about 40-fold per generation but roughly 120-fold per year, a wider range than earlier studies suggested. The authors found species with larger effective population sizes had lower mutation rates, evidence for the "drift-barrier hypothesis" that natural selection weakens against mutation in smaller populations.
Frontiers Evolutionary Trajectories of Complex Traits in European Populations of Modern Humans— Genome-wide polygenic scores indicate European populations after the Neolithic period show increases in height, educational attainment, and intelligence scores, alongside decreases in scores for unipolar depression. The authors associate this shift from relative stagnation to accelerated evolutionary change with the spread of agriculture and animal domestication.
AI Summary.Bird flu has killed nearly 7m farmed birds in the United States in recent months, including about 1.3m turkeys, pressuring the nation's turkey supply. The virus has affected more than 180m farmed birds, spread to over 1,000 dairy herds across 18 states, and infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers.
Emily Anthes and Apoorva MandavilliNew York Times
Date Posted:
Bird flu is surging in part due to the fall migration, resulting in the deaths of almost 7mm farmed birds in the US since the start of September.
How widely has bird flu spread across poultry, cattle, and people?
Core argument: Bird flu has killed nearly seven million farmed birds in the United States since the beginning of September, including about 1.3 million turkeys, putting pressure on the nation's turkey supply ahead of Thanksgiving.
After a quiet summer, the virus has hit dozens of poultry flocks, resulting in the deaths of nearly seven million farmed birds in the United States since the beginning of September. Among them: about 1.3 million turkeys, putting pressure on the nation’s turkey supply in the run-up to Thanksgiving. Reports of infected wild birds have also surged this fall, and three states — Idaho, Nebraska and Texas — have identified outbreaks in dairy cows. Since early 2022, the virus has affected more than 180 million farmed birds and killed countless wild ones. But it has also infected dozens of new species, suggesting that it has changed significantly over time. In early 2024, it spilled over into dairy cows, eventually spreading to more than 1,000 herds in 18 states. And it has infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers, resulting in several hospitalizations and one death.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Bird flu has killed nearly seven million farmed birds in the United States since the beginning of September, including about 1.3 million turkeys, putting pressure on the nation's turkey supply ahead of Thanksgiving.
Since early 2022, the virus has affected more than 180 million farmed birds and infected dozens of new species, suggesting it has changed significantly over time.
Bird flu spilled over into dairy cows in early 2024 and spread to more than 1,000 herds in 18 states, and it has infected at least 70 people, mostly farmworkers, resulting in several hospitalizations and one death.
Related Articles:
Genetic Sequences of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses Identified in a Person in Louisiana— Genetic sequencing of the H5N1 bird flu virus from a severely ill patient in Louisiana identified the D1.1 genotype and found low-frequency mutations in the hemagglutinin surface protein gene. Those mutations were absent from virus sequences in poultry on the patient's property, suggesting they emerged in the patient after infection.
AI Summary.A biotechnology company reported that a gene-editing treatment designed to correct the mutation behind chronic granulomatous disease, an immune disorder, restored a crucial enzyme's function in two-thirds of one patient's neutrophils with no serious side effects a month later. The results have not been peer-reviewed, and researchers say it is too soon to judge success.
Heidi LedfordNature
Date Posted:
A CRISPR-based gene-editing technique known as prime editing was used to treat a teenager with a rare immune disorder. It will take somewhere btw six months and a year “to be certain that the edited stem cells are thriving.”
Can gene editing correct the mutation behind an inherited immune disorder?
Core argument: Prime Medicine reported on 19 May that a teenager treated with its CRISPR therapy for chronic granulomatous disease had restored function of a crucial enzyme in two-thirds of his neutrophils, with no serious side effects after one month.
Researchers designed the treatment to correct a mutation that causes chronic granulomatous disease, a dangerous condition that disables a variety of immune cells, including those called neutrophils. A month after the teenager received the treatment, he had experienced no serious side effects. And the therapy seemed to have restored the function of a crucial enzyme in two-thirds of his neutrophils — more than enough to provide a significant boost to his immune system. Prime Medicine, a biotechnology company in Cambridge, Massachusetts, unveiled the results on 19 May. It has not yet published them in a peer-reviewed journal. It is too soon to know whether the treatment was a success: it will take between six months and a year to be certain that the edited stem cells are thriving, says Annarita Miccio, who studies gene therapy at the Imagine Institute at the Necker Hospital for Sick Children in Paris and is not involved in the research.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Prime Medicine reported on 19 May that a teenager treated with its CRISPR therapy for chronic granulomatous disease had restored function of a crucial enzyme in two-thirds of his neutrophils, with no serious side effects after one month.
The treatment was designed to correct a mutation that causes chronic granulomatous disease, a condition that disables a variety of immune cells including neutrophils, and the results have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Annarita Miccio, a gene-therapy researcher at the Imagine Institute in Paris who is not involved in the research, says it will take six months to a year to be certain that the edited stem cells are thriving.
Related Articles:
Bridge RNAs Direct Programmable Recombination Of Target And Donor DNA— The IS110 bridge system uses a single compact RNA-guided recombinase that is sufficient on its own for direct DNA recombination, unlike other programmable genome-editing tools that require added effector proteins. Its bispecific bridge RNA can be reprogrammed to direct DNA insertion, excision, and inversion for large-scale sequence and genome rearrangement.
Accurate Structure Prediction of Biomolecular Interactions With AlphaFold 3— AlphaFold 3, a single deep learning model with a diffusion-based architecture, jointly predicts the structures of complexes containing proteins, nucleic acids, small molecules, ions, and modified residues. The authors report accuracy exceeding specialised tools for protein-ligand docking, protein-nucleic acid interactions, and antibody-antigen prediction.
AI Protein-Prediction Tool AlphaFold3 Is Now More Open— DeepMind's AlphaFold3, which can model proteins together with other molecules, was initially released only through a web server that limited predictions, drawing criticism from scientists that withholding the code and model weights undermined reproducibility. The code is now downloadable for non-commercial use, with training weights available to academics on request.
AI Summary.The World Health Organization has reported an outbreak of an unidentified illness in northwestern Democratic Republic of Congo, with 53 deaths out of 431 reported cases and nearly half of the deaths in one cluster occurring within 48 hours of symptom onset. Ebola and Marburg viruses have been ruled out, and the cause remains unknown.
Eve SampsonNew York Times
Date Posted:
World Health Organization is worried about an unidentified illness, linked to three children who ate a bat, that killed 53 people out of 431 cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Is an unidentified deadly illness spreading rapidly in central Africa?
Core argument: An unidentified illness in northwestern Democratic Republic of Congo had killed 53 people out of 431 reported cases as of Feb. 15, according to a bulletin from the World Health Organization's Africa office.
An unidentified illness has killed scores of people and infected hundreds in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the World Health Organization has reported, with preliminary investigations tracing the outbreak to three children who in January ate a bat and died. Fifty-three people in the country’s northwest had died from the disease, out of 431 reported cases as of Feb. 15, and “with nearly half of the deaths occurring within 48 hours of symptom onset” in one of two identified clusters, according to a weekly bulletin published by the W.H.O.’s Africa office. “The outbreak, which has seen cases rise rapidly within days, poses a significant public health threat,” the report said, and “the exact cause remains unknown.” Investigators sent 18 samples to Congo’s capital, Kinshasa, for testing, ruling out Ebola and Marburg viruses.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
An unidentified illness in northwestern Democratic Republic of Congo had killed 53 people out of 431 reported cases as of Feb. 15, according to a bulletin from the World Health Organization's Africa office.
Preliminary investigations trace the Congo outbreak to three children who ate a bat in January and died, with nearly half of the deaths in one of two identified clusters occurring within 48 hours of symptom onset.
Investigators sent 18 samples to Congo's capital, Kinshasa, for testing and ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses, with the World Health Organization saying the exact cause remains unknown and the outbreak poses a significant public health threat.
Related Articles:
Africa Has Entered a New Era of War— Africa is experiencing more conflicts than at any point since at least 1946, with 28 state-based conflicts identified across 16 of its 54 countries, double the count of a decade and a half ago. The continent now hosts nearly half the world's internally displaced people, about 32.5m, triple the level 15 years earlier.
Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory— Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion— Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to hold a quarter of the world's working-age population within a few decades and to surpass China's working-age population in roughly a decade. Even with modest productivity growth near 2%, the region's growth is estimated at 4.5–5.5%, raising its share of global output from about 3% while remaining small.
AI Summary.Physicists outside the work have responded cautiously to Microsoft's topological quantum computing claim, noting that the search for topological qubits and the "Majorana" particles underpinning them has a history of bold announcements later withdrawn. Researchers describe the technology as excruciatingly difficult to actually build.
Nidhi SubbaramanWall Street Journal
Date Posted:
Microsoft’s quantum computing breakthrough in creating an advanced “topological qubit” is likely to prove difficult to turn into practical outcomes, some physicists contend.
Are physicists skeptical of claims of a topological quantum computing breakthrough?
Core argument: Physicists are responding cautiously to Microsoft's quantum announcement, in part because the pursuit of topological qubits and the "Majorana" particles underpinning them has a history of bold pronouncements later pulled back, said Vlad Pribiag, a quantum device physicist at the University of Minnesota.
Scientists are responding to Microsoft’s announcement with caution, in part because the quest for topological qubits and the “Majorana” particles that underpin them has a history of bold pronouncements that later were pulled back, said Vlad Pribiag, a quantum device physicist at the University of Minnesota who wasn’t involved with the work. “This particular technology they’re pursuing, as exciting as it is, is turning out to be excruciatingly difficult to actually build,” said Stephen Bartlett, director of the University of Sydney Nano Institute, who wasn’t involved with the work.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Physicists are responding cautiously to Microsoft's quantum announcement, in part because the pursuit of topological qubits and the "Majorana" particles underpinning them has a history of bold pronouncements later pulled back, said Vlad Pribiag, a quantum device physicist at the University of Minnesota.
Stephen Bartlett, director of the University of Sydney Nano Institute, said the technology Microsoft is pursuing, as exciting as it is, is turning out to be excruciatingly difficult to actually build.
Related Articles:
Microsoft’s Majorana 1 Chip Carves New Path for Quantum Computing— Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, a quantum chip built on a Topological Core architecture using a new materials stack of indium arsenide and aluminum, which the company expects will enable quantum computers capable of solving industrial-scale problems within years rather than decades. The topological superconductor produces a qubit that is fast, small, stable, and digitally controlled.
Interferometric Single-Shot Parity Measurement In InAs–Al Hybrid Devices— Researchers demonstrated a single-shot interferometric measurement of fermion parity in indium arsenide–aluminium hybrid devices with a gate-defined superconducting nanowire, achieving a parity assignment error probability of 1%. The authors note the results admit both topologically trivial and non-trivial interpretations, and the architecture is compatible with future tests of anyon fusion rules.
Meet Willow, Our State-of-the-Art Quantum Chip— Google reports that its Willow quantum chip completed a random circuit sampling benchmark computation in under five minutes that one of today's fastest supercomputers would take an estimated 10^25 years to perform. The benchmark is described as the classically hardest test currently runnable on a quantum computer.
AI Summary.Dairy cows in Nevada were infected with D1.1, a form of H5N1 bird flu circulating in wild birds and poultry that is distinct from the B3.13 version found in more than 950 herds across 16 states. The finding indicates the virus has spilled from birds into cows at least twice.
Emily Anthes and Apoorva MandavilliNew York Times
Date Posted:
Cows in Nevada have been infected with a new variant of H5N1, D1.1, which was responsible for the first US death from bird flu this year. This suggests a 2nd spillover from birds to cows beyond the B3.13 variant that has infected herds in 16 states.
Has bird flu jumped from birds into dairy cows more than once?
Core argument: Dairy cows in Nevada were infected with the D1.1 form of H5N1 bird flu, distinct from the B3.13 version that has infected more than 950 herds across 16 states.
Dairy cows in Nevada have been infected with a new form of bird flu that is distinct from the version that has been spreading through herds over the last year. The virus is a version of H5N1 known as B3.13, which has infected more than 950 herds in 16 states. Scientists believe that it initially jumped to cows from birds about a year ago, somewhere in the Texas panhandle. That transition took scientists by surprise, and this new one even more so. The cows in Nevada were infected with a version of the virus known as D1.1, which has been spreading in wild birds and poultry. It was initially detected in milk collected from a silo as part of a national milk testing strategy announced by the U.S.D.A. late last year. The D1.1 form of H5N1 has also shown itself to be dangerous to people. Of the 67 Americans known to have become ill with H5N1 so far, the only one who died was infected with this version. The [new] finding indicates that the virus, known as H5N1, has spilled from birds into cows at least twice — leading to these two sets of infections — and that it could continue to do so. [Thus] the virus may pose a persistent risk to cows and to the people who work closely with them.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Dairy cows in Nevada were infected with the D1.1 form of H5N1 bird flu, distinct from the B3.13 version that has infected more than 950 herds across 16 states.
Of the 67 Americans known to have become ill with H5N1, the only one who died was infected with the D1.1 version that has been spreading in wild birds and poultry.
The D1.1 infection in cows was detected in milk collected from a silo under the national milk testing strategy announced by the U.S.D.A.
Related Articles:
Louisiana Patient’s Death From Bird Flu Is the First in US— A patient in Louisiana who was over 65 and had underlying medical conditions died after contracting H5N1 bird flu following exposure to a non-commercial backyard flock and wild birds, the first US fatality linked to the virus. Most US human bird flu infections have occurred in farm workers exposed to infected animals and caused mainly mild symptoms.
Genetic Sequences of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses Identified in a Person in Louisiana— Genetic sequencing of the H5N1 bird flu virus from a severely ill patient in Louisiana identified the D1.1 genotype and found low-frequency mutations in the hemagglutinin surface protein gene. Those mutations were absent from virus sequences in poultry on the patient's property, suggesting they emerged in the patient after infection.
AI Summary.Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by a NASA-funded network of near-Earth object telescopes, is estimated by the European Space Agency to be between 130 and 330 feet long, a range derived from the sunlight it reflects because its surface reflectivity is unknown. A more precise radar measurement will be possible when it makes another safe close pass by Earth.
Robin George AndrewsNew York Times
Date Posted:
A newly discovered asteroid, estimated at 130-330 ft. long, has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032 according to NASA. Last year NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) changed the orbit of a large asteroid in a defense experiment..
How precisely can astronomers measure a newly detected asteroid's size?
Core argument: Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 330 feet long, according to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, a range derived from the sunlight it reflects because its surface reflectivity is unknown.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was identified by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System four telescopes around the world that hunt near-Earth objects and are funded by NASA. Its telescope in Chile found 2024 YR4 on Dec. 27, just two days after a close approach to Earth. It’s now speeding away from the planet and getting fainter by the day. According to the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, it is between 130 and 330 feet long. This size range is based on the amount of sunlight it is reflecting. Without knowing exactly how reflective 2024 YR4’s surface is, only a range of sizes can be given. A more accurate estimate could be made using radar, but that won’t be possible until the asteroid makes another close, but perfectly safe, pass by Earth on Dec. 17, 2028. A 130-foot asteroid is comparable to the Tunguska impactor, a meteor that exploded over a remote patch of Siberia in 1908 and decimated an 800-square-mile forest.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 330 feet long, according to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, a range derived from the sunlight it reflects because its surface reflectivity is unknown.
The NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System's telescope in Chile found 2024 YR4 on Dec. 27, two days after the asteroid's close approach to Earth, and it is now speeding away and growing fainter.
A more accurate size estimate of 2024 YR4 using radar must wait until the asteroid makes another close but safe pass by Earth on Dec. 17, 2028.
Related Articles:
It’s Not a Space Race, It’s the Space Olympics— The US operates 81% of commercial satellites in orbit and 86% of global effective launch capacity, with NATO allies second in satellites at 11% and China second in launch capacity at 9%. China is pursuing mega satellite constellations and reusable rockets, in many cases copying approaches already proven by US companies.
Building an Enduring Advantage in the Third Space Age— The United States and China each logged their highest-ever annual launch rates, at 103 and 66 launches, while Russia fell to 19 and Europe recorded three. The US accounted for roughly half of global launches but 81% of effective launch capacity, since Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy comprised 93% of US launches.
