“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
AI Summary.Racial disparities in US crime, arrest, and prison admission rates have declined across offence types, driven by reductions among Black Americans. Black-White disparity in drug-offence prison admissions fell from 12x to 2.9x, attributable to a 75% drop in the Black drug admission rate, while declines for violent and property offences were smaller.
Jason Robey and Michael LightNature Human Behaviour
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From their respective recent peaks in 2000 and 2006 to 2019, prison admissions for violent crime fell 20% for Whites and 43% for Blacks. Race-specific NIBRS estimates suggest actual violent crime fell 18% and 47%, respectively.
Why are racial gaps in US arrests and imprisonment narrowing?
Core argument: Black–White disparity in drug-offence prison admission rates fell from 12 to 1 in 2000 to 2.9 to 1 in 2019, attributed almost entirely to a 75% drop in the Black prison admission rate for drug offences.
From their respective peaks [2000 for whites, 2006 for blacks], prison admission rates for violent crime fell 20% for Whites and 43% for Blacks. [Because UCR crime totals do not identify offender race, the authors use the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), which records offender race as reported by victims, witnesses or police, to allocate national violent-crime totals by race. NIBRS contains about three times as many violent offenders as arrestees. As a check on crimes not reported to police, they use National Crime Victimization Survey victim reports; results are similar.] [Recorded violent crime fell 18% for Whites and 47% for Blacks See Table 2]. For Whites, the decline in prison admissions is primarily a function of a decline in crime and arrests, with case processing dampening the decline. For Blacks, the decline in violent prison admissions is exclusively attributed to a 47% reduction in violent crime, as policing and case processing trends worked against an otherwise larger decline. [Arrests per crime and prison admissions per arrest both rose slightly; See Table 2].
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Black–White disparity in drug-offence prison admission rates fell from 12 to 1 in 2000 to 2.9 to 1 in 2019, attributed almost entirely to a 75% drop in the Black prison admission rate for drug offences.
Racial disparities in crime, arrest, and prison admission rates have declined across all offence types since about 2000, largely attributable to reductions in crime, arrests, and imprisonment among Blacks.
Declining drug admissions accounted for 53% of the overall drop in Black prison admission rates, while for Whites 62% of the decline came from property offences, with violent (20%) and drug (19%) admissions contributing roughly equally.
Related Articles:
America’s Incarceration Rate Is About To Fall Off A Cliff— The U.S. imprisonment rate stayed below 120 per 100,000 people from the end of World War II until the mid-1970s, then doubled by 1985 and grew about 8% a year, passing 1m prisoners in 1994 and peaking in 2009 — 18 years after violent crime peaked.
Number of Young People Accused of Serious Crimes Surges in New York City— New York City Police Department figures show 4,858 major crimes with a minor accused or arrested in the most recent year, up 37% from 3,543 seven years earlier, with robberies and felony assaults continuing to rise. Police officials attribute the increase to a state law diverting most 16- and 17-year-old defendants from adult courts.
How Many Are Criminals— In the United States, between one in four and one in three Black men eventually serve prison time, compared with one in seven Hispanic men and roughly one in fifteen non-Hispanic white men. In Denmark, about 9% of men of Danish origin and 27% of men of non-Western origin have a criminal conviction by age 24.
AI Summary.The US life expectancy gap between people with and without a college degree widened from 2.6 years to 6.3 years over roughly three decades, while mortality inequality across counties rose 30%. Using county- and state-level data, the authors attribute a key role to smoking rates, with secondary roles for income, other health behaviors, and state policies.
Christopher Foote, Ellen Meara, Jonathan Skinner, and Luke StewartNational Bureau of Economic Research
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The college/non-college life expectancy gap widened from 2.6–6.3 years btw 1992 and 2019, while county mortality inequality jumped 30% to the detriment of rural areas. Smoking by state predicts ~300 extra deaths per 100k for non-college grads, 0 for grads.
What explains the widening life expectancy gap by education?
Core argument: The US life expectancy gap between adults with and without a college degree widened from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019, while mortality inequality across counties rose 30%, accompanied by an increasing rural health penalty.
The education-mortality gradient has increased sharply in the last three decades, with the life expectancy gap btw people with and without a college degree widening from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019. During the same period, mortality inequality across counties rose 30%, accompanied by an increasing rural health penalty. Using county- and state-level data from the 1992–2019 period, we demonstrate that these three trends arose due to a fundamental shift in the geographic patterns of mortality among college and non-college populations. First, we find a sharp decline in both mortality rates and geographic inequality for college graduates. Second, the reverse was true for people without a college degree; spatial inequality became amplified. Third, we find that rates of smoking play a key role in explaining all three empirical puzzles, with secondary roles attributed to income, other health behaviors, and state policies. [An objection is that] the non-college smoking rate declined by somewhat more than the college rate from 1992 to 2019. [The resolution is that] college populations gave up smoking decades before non-college populations did. [The key] college/non-college comparison [is] among 55–64 year-olds, the age group for which the smoking mortality penalty is greatest.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The US life expectancy gap between adults with and without a college degree widened from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019, while mortality inequality across counties rose 30%, accompanied by an increasing rural health penalty.
Using county- and state-level data for 1992–2019, the authors find mortality rates and geographic inequality fell sharply for college graduates, while spatial inequality in mortality became amplified among people without a college degree.
The authors attribute a key role in all three mortality trends to smoking rates, with secondary roles for income, other health behaviors, and state policies, noting that college populations gave up smoking decades before non-college populations did.
Related Articles:
Human Capital Spillovers and Health: Does Living Around College Graduates Lengthen Life?— Living in an area with more college graduates is associated with lower mortality even after accounting for individuals' own education, and more than half of that correlation can be explained by area differences in smoking and obesity rates. The authors find evidence for both regulatory policies such as workplace smoking bans and peer effects about the harms of smoking.
Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap Between American Adults With and Without a BA— The mortality gap between American adults with and without a four-year college degree widened across three periods—falling mortality for both with larger gains for graduates, then diverging, then rising faster for the less educated during the pandemic—reaching an 8.5-year difference in adult life expectancy. Americans with a degree, treated as a separate country, would rank just below Japan.
AI Summary.The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey found the violent crime rate in urban areas rose 61% over five years, while smaller increases in suburban (4%) and rural (2%) areas were not statistically significant. Urban violent crime ended 46% above the national rate and 104% above the rural rate.
Jeffrey AndersonWall Street Journal
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The rate of violent crime in urban areas increased 61% between 2019 and 2024, compared to increases of just 4% in suburban areas and 2% in rural areas over that period, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey.
Has violent crime risen in cities but not suburbs and rural areas?
Core argument: The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey finds the rate of violent crime in urban areas rose 61% from 2019 to 2024, with the increase confined to cities.
Newly released results from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey [find] that the rate of violent crime in urban areas increased by 61% from 2019 to 2024. That crime spike was found only in cities. In suburban and rural areas, the observed increase in violent crime over that same span—4% and 2%, respectively—wasn’t statistically significant. In 2019, before George Floyd, pandemic closures and the defund-the-police movement, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was roughly identical to the rate nationwide. In 2024, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was 46% higher than the nationwide rate and 104% higher—more than double—the rural rate.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Crime Victimization Survey finds the rate of violent crime in urban areas rose 61% from 2019 to 2024, with the increase confined to cities.
Suburban and rural violent crime rose 4% and 2% respectively from 2019 to 2024, increases that were not statistically significant in the National Crime Victimization Survey.
The urban violent crime rate was roughly identical to the nationwide rate in 2019 but by 2024 stood 46% above the nationwide rate and 104% above the rural rate.
How Many Are Criminals— In the United States, between one in four and one in three Black men eventually serve prison time, compared with one in seven Hispanic men and roughly one in fifteen non-Hispanic white men. In Denmark, about 9% of men of Danish origin and 27% of men of non-Western origin have a criminal conviction by age 24.
It’s Time to Talk About America’s Disorder Problem— A meta-analysis of 56 studies found that disorder policing consistently reduces crime, but that indiscriminate "aggressive order maintenance" arrests did not significantly reduce crime while problem-oriented strategies targeting specific sources of disorder often had sizable effects without spillovers. The authors note that a large share of disorder comes from a small number of people and places.
AI Summary.Felony assaults in New York City's subway have risen two- to threefold since the pandemic, a pattern that does not match the rest of the country and appears connected to local criminal justice practices. Research finds that ending cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies is associated with increased repeat offending among those previously charged with violent felonies.
Justin FoxBloomberg
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Felonious assaults on New York City’s subways are up significantly since the pandemic. @foxjust suggests this “may have something to do with local criminal justice practices,” including the ending of cash bail.
Does ending cash bail increase repeat offending among violent offenders?
Core argument: New York subway felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase, while subway homicides remain so few that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact on the totals.
While the number of subway homicides remains so small that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact, the far more numerous felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase. The failure of the criminal justice system to rein in people with long histories of violence raises some questions about the bail reforms enacted in New York in 2019 and other local changes in prosecution and sentencing. New York’s continuing assault problem, which does not match what’s going on in the rest of the country, seems likelier to have something to do with local criminal justice practices. The reform-friendly Data Collaborative for Justice has found that while ending cash bail in New York for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies hasn’t resulted in overall increases in recidivism or crime, it does seem to have led to increased recidivism among those previously charged with violent felonies.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
New York subway felony assaults show a two- or threefold pandemic increase, while subway homicides remain so few that one or two flukey occurrences can have a big impact on the totals.
The reform-friendly Data Collaborative for Justice found that ending cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies in New York did not raise overall recidivism or crime but appears to have increased recidivism among those previously charged with violent felonies.
New York's continuing assault problem does not match what is happening in the rest of the country, and seems likelier to relate to local criminal justice practices, including the 2019 bail reforms and changes in prosecution and sentencing.
New York’s Subways Have Less Crime but More Violence— Major crime on New York's subways is on track to run 13.4% below 2019 levels, but ridership remains down about a third, so crime per rider is much higher this year than from 2006 through 2019. Property crime has not risen; violent incidents account for the increase.
“New York, Just Like I Pictured It”— New York City retains advantages in sheer size, business diversification, and global financial dominance, with its labor force, airport use, and seated diners back to pre-pandemic levels and low residential and industrial vacancy rates. But mass transit use is 73% of prior levels, office vacancy is 18%, and about 35% of workdays are done from home.
