Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Racial disparities in US crime, arrest, and prison admission rates have declined across offence types, driven by reductions among Black Americans. Black-White disparity in drug-offence prison admissions fell from 12x to 2.9x, attributable to a 75% drop in the Black drug admission rate, while declines for violent and property offences were smaller.

Jason Robey and Michael Light Nature Human Behaviour
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From their respective recent peaks in 2000 and 2006 to 2019, prison admissions for violent crime fell 20% for Whites and 43% for Blacks. Race-specific NIBRS estimates suggest actual violent crime fell 18% and 47%, respectively.

Why are racial gaps in US arrests and imprisonment narrowing?

Core argument: Black–White disparity in drug-offence prison admission rates fell from 12 to 1 in 2000 to 2.9 to 1 in 2019, attributed almost entirely to a 75% drop in the Black prison admission rate for drug offences.

From their respective peaks [2000 for whites, 2006 for blacks], prison admission rates for violent crime fell 20% for Whites and 43% for Blacks. [Because UCR crime totals do not identify offender race, the authors use the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), which records offender race as reported by victims, witnesses or police, to allocate national violent-crime totals by race. NIBRS contains about three times as many violent offenders as arrestees. As a check on crimes not reported to police, they use National Crime Victimization Survey victim reports; results are similar.] [Recorded violent crime fell 18% for Whites and 47% for Blacks See Table 2]. For Whites, the decline in prison admissions is primarily a function of a decline in crime and arrests, with case processing dampening the decline. For Blacks, the decline in violent prison admissions is exclusively attributed to a 47% reduction in violent crime, as policing and case processing trends worked against an otherwise larger decline. [Arrests per crime and prison admissions per arrest both rose slightly; See Table 2].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Black–White disparity in drug-offence prison admission rates fell from 12 to 1 in 2000 to 2.9 to 1 in 2019, attributed almost entirely to a 75% drop in the Black prison admission rate for drug offences.
  2. Racial disparities in crime, arrest, and prison admission rates have declined across all offence types since about 2000, largely attributable to reductions in crime, arrests, and imprisonment among Blacks.
  3. Declining drug admissions accounted for 53% of the overall drop in Black prison admission rates, while for Whites 62% of the decline came from property offences, with violent (20%) and drug (19%) admissions contributing roughly equally.

Related Articles:

  • America’s Incarceration Rate Is About To Fall Off A Cliff — The U.S. imprisonment rate stayed below 120 per 100,000 people from the end of World War II until the mid-1970s, then doubled by 1985 and grew about 8% a year, passing 1m prisoners in 1994 and peaking in 2009 — 18 years after violent crime peaked.
  • Number of Young People Accused of Serious Crimes Surges in New York City — New York City Police Department figures show 4,858 major crimes with a minor accused or arrested in the most recent year, up 37% from 3,543 seven years earlier, with robberies and felony assaults continuing to rise. Police officials attribute the increase to a state law diverting most 16- and 17-year-old defendants from adult courts.
  • How Many Are Criminals — In the United States, between one in four and one in three Black men eventually serve prison time, compared with one in seven Hispanic men and roughly one in fifteen non-Hispanic white men. In Denmark, about 9% of men of Danish origin and 27% of men of non-Western origin have a criminal conviction by age 24.

AI Summary. The official U.S. poverty rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 10.2%, a third consecutive annual decline and among the lowest on record, with 34.5m people in poverty. Poverty rates hit historic lows for Hispanic individuals, down 1.2 points to 13.9%, and children under 18, down 1.0 point to 13.4%.

Christina Bijou and Emily Shrider U.S. Census Bureau
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According to the Census Bureau, the poverty rate in the US fell .5pp in 2025 to 10.2%, one of the lowest rates on record. The poverty rate for children fell to a historical low of 13.4%. Census’s income measure does not include taxes or non-cash government transfers.

Is the U.S. poverty rate falling to record lows?

Core argument: The official U.S. poverty rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 10.2% in 2025, the third consecutive annual decline and one of the lowest rates on record, with 34.5 million people in poverty.

In 2025, the official poverty rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 10.2%, the third consecutive annual decline and one of the lowest rates on record. There were 34.5 million people in poverty in 2025. Poverty rates for Hispanic individuals and children under age 18 both fell to historic lows in 2025. Between 2024 and 2025, the poverty rate for Hispanic individuals fell 1.2 percentage points to 13.9%. The child poverty rate fell 1 percentage point to 13.4%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The official U.S. poverty rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 10.2% in 2025, the third consecutive annual decline and one of the lowest rates on record, with 34.5 million people in poverty.
  2. The poverty rate for Hispanic individuals fell 1.2 percentage points to 13.9% between 2024 and 2025, a historic low.
  3. The poverty rate for children under age 18 fell 1.0 percentage point to 13.4% in 2025, a historic low.

Related Articles:

  • Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023 — Extending a consistent poverty measure back to 1939, the authors estimate US absolute poverty fell from 48.5% to 19.5% between 1939 and 1963, driven by growth in market income rather than government transfers net of taxes. Poverty fell no faster in the 24 years after the War on Poverty than before.
  • Evaluating the Success of the War on Poverty since 1963 Using an Absolute Full-Income Poverty Measure — The authors estimate that an absolute full-income poverty measure, which counts a fuller set of income sources and adjusts thresholds only for inflation, fell from 19.5% to 1.6%, versus an official decline to 10.5%. They also find relative poverty reductions modest and government dependence more than doubled among working-age adults.
  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Government transfers rose from 8.2% of Americans' total personal income in 1970 to 17.6% in 2022, making them the third largest income source after work and investments. The share of U.S. counties drawing a quarter or more of personal income from transfers rose from under 1% in 1970 to 53% in 2022.

AI Summary. Comparing weighted survey estimates with targets built from published administrative totals, the authors find that household survey means of income received are systematically biased downward, with the understatement reaching 40% or more for nearly half the measures examined. Bias is under 15% for Social Security benefits but exceeds 40% for pensions, unemployment insurance, and food stamps.

Bruce Meyer, Nikolas Mittag, Derek Wu, Anthony Tatarka, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
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CPS reports of receipts in dollar terms are 40–60% below administrative benchmarks for income sources such as SNAP and pensions. Linked records show most of the gap comes from recipients reporting no receipt at all, not underestimating amounts.

How large is the downward bias in household survey income estimates?

Core argument: Total survey error in the Current Population Survey from 1984 to 2022 is almost always negative for both recipients and dollars, indicating survey means are biased downward, with bias of 40% or more for nearly half the variables.

To directly measure bias in survey estimates, we calculate the difference between the weighted survey estimate and the survey target constructed from published totals [TSE or total survey error], using public-data adjustments for intentional coverage differences for average dollars received and the recipient share of the population across our income sources. Figures 1 and 2 summarize TSE in the CPS from 1984 to 2022, expressed as a share of the survey target for our measures of recipients (seven income sources) and dollars (eight income sources). In levels, TSE is almost always negative for both recipients and dollars (with SSI dollars an exception in recent years), indicating that survey means are systematically biased downward. For nearly half of the variables the bias is 40% or more. Yet, there is substantial heterogeneity across income sources. TSE tends to be more modest for SSA programs (specifically OASDI and OASI, for which the net bias is below 15% for recipients and dollars), while it is much larger for income sources such as pensions, UI, and SNAP (for which the net understatement exceeds 40%).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Total survey error in the Current Population Survey from 1984 to 2022 is almost always negative for both recipients and dollars, indicating survey means are biased downward, with bias of 40% or more for nearly half the variables.
  2. Net understatement exceeds 40% for pensions, unemployment insurance, and SNAP, while net bias for the Social Security programs OASDI and OASI stays below 15% for both recipients and dollars.
  3. Bias is measured as the difference between the weighted survey estimate and a survey target built from published totals, with public-data adjustments for intentional coverage differences across seven income sources for recipients and eight for dollars.

Related Articles:

  • Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023 — Extending a consistent poverty measure back to 1939, the authors estimate US absolute poverty fell from 48.5% to 19.5% between 1939 and 1963, driven by growth in market income rather than government transfers net of taxes. Poverty fell no faster in the 24 years after the War on Poverty than before.
  • Government Benefit Programs Already Do A Lot To Help Low Income Families — For a two-adult, three-child family, existing taxes and government benefits bring take-home resources to about $58,000 with no earnings, $79,000 with $20,000 of earnings, and $90,000 with $80,000 of earnings plus $15,000 in employer health premiums. A $75,000 gap in earnings and work-related benefits narrows to $11,000 in take-home pay.
  • Beyond the Myths: A Clearer Path to Poverty Alleviation in America — Consumption-based poverty in the U.S. fell 10.6 percentage points (81%) since 1980 and income poverty measured by an anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure fell 6.9 points (53%), while the Official Poverty Measure fell less than 2 points, suggesting the official measure understates long-run progress. The authors attribute part of the divergence to worsening underreporting of income.

AI Summary. A large survey found symptoms of cannabis use disorder rose to more than 9% of men and nearly 6% of women, up from about 7% and 5% three years earlier, as cannabis use increased among adults overall. About 30% of cannabis users showed disorder symptoms, versus under 20% of drinkers for alcohol.

Roni Caryn Rabin New York Times
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A study of 186,823 Americans found 26% of men and 21% of women reported using cannabis in 2024, up 4 and 3pp respectively from 2021; 9% of men and 6% of women reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder.

Is problem cannabis use rising as more Americans use the drug?

Core argument: More than 9% of men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021, while prevalence among women rose to nearly 6% from about 5%, according to a large study.

A growing number of Americans say their cannabis use is problematic, according to a large new study [which found] more than 9% of the men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021. The prevalence of cannabis use disorder also rose among women, increasing to nearly 6% in 2024, up from about 5% in 2021. Symptoms of the disorder include not being able to cut back or quit, or continuing to use the drug despite it leading to interpersonal problems. Overall, cannabis use rose among all adults during this time. In 2024, 26% of men reported using the drug, up from 22% in 2021. Among women, 21% said they used cannabis in 2024, up from nearly 18% in 2021. Of the survey participants who said they used cannabis, about 30% showed symptoms consistent with cannabis use disorder. Those findings suggested that those who used cannabis were at higher risk of developing problematic use than those who drank alcohol, as fewer than 20% of those who reported drinking in the survey showed symptoms of alcohol use disorder.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than 9% of men reported symptoms of cannabis use disorder in 2024, up from about 7% in 2021, while prevalence among women rose to nearly 6% from about 5%, according to a large study.
  2. Cannabis use rose among U.S. adults, with 26% of men reporting use in 2024 versus 22% in 2021, and 21% of women versus nearly 18%.
  3. About 30% of survey participants who used cannabis showed symptoms consistent with cannabis use disorder, compared with fewer than 20% of those who reported drinking showing symptoms of alcohol use disorder, suggesting higher risk of problematic use.

Related Articles:

  • As America’s Marijuana Use Grows, So Do the Harms — An analysis of federal survey data estimates that about 18m US adults — nearly a third of adult cannabis users — report symptoms of cannabis use disorder, with roughly 3m considered addicted. Among those aged 18 to 25, the cannabis use disorder rate of 16.6% matches the alcohol use disorder rate of 15.1%.
  • Disconnected: The Growing Class Divide in American Civic Life — 17% of Americans report having no close friends, and survey data show a wide educational gap: 24% of those with a high school education or less have no close friends versus 10% of college graduates. Three decades ago, Americans with less formal education reported social circles at least as large.
  • The Case for Prohibiting Vice — A record 62m Americans used marijuana in a single year, 17m of them daily or near daily, while half of American men now hold sports-betting accounts, up from almost zero seven years earlier. The author argues vice and addiction undermine citizens' capacity for free action, justifying state regulation beyond individual-harm criteria.

AI Summary. US communities more exposed to opioid marketing experienced lower population growth, driven mainly by out-migration of college-educated adults, alongside higher fertility among non-college-educated mothers that partially offset the decline. The authors attribute the selective migration response to eroded local quality of life, including addiction, homelessness, and strained public services.

Carolina Arteaga, Victoria Barone, and Stephen Claassen National Bureau of Economic Research
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Commuting zones with high cancer mortality in 1996, and thus more exposed to Purdue’s OxyContin marketing, saw lower population growth via selective out‑migration of college‑educated adults, partially offset by higher fertility among non‑college mothers.

How does opioid exposure reshape local population growth and composition?

Core argument: Using 1996 cancer mortality as a proxy for where pharmaceutical companies initially concentrated OxyContin marketing, the authors find communities more exposed to the opioid epidemic experienced lower population growth, driven primarily by out-migration among college-educated adults.

To measure exposure to opioid shocks, we use 1996 cancer mortality as a proxy for local exposure to the opioid epidemic. The size of the cancer pain market in the mid-1990s was a key determinant of where pharmaceutical companies initially concentrated their marketing efforts for opioids. Using this quasi exogenous variation in local exposure to Purdue Pharma’s marketing of OxyContin, we show that communities more exposed to the epidemic experienced lower population growth, driven primarily by increased out-migration among college-educated adults. In the opposite direction, the opioid epidemic induced substantial increases in fertility, concentrated among non-college educated mothers, which by the end of our period partially offset these population declines. Mortality rises sharply in proportional terms [but] the modest absolute increase has only a minimal effect on population growth. These shifts reveal how the epidemic contributed to growing regional demographic divergence within the United States. Beyond disrupting labor-market opportunities, it eroded the amenity value of places. Communities most exposed to the crisis were characterized by rising addiction, homelessness, neighborhood disorder, and a strain on public services, reducing local quality of life. This deterioration in local amenities helps explain why the migration response we document is both sizable and selective.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Using 1996 cancer mortality as a proxy for where pharmaceutical companies initially concentrated OxyContin marketing, the authors find communities more exposed to the opioid epidemic experienced lower population growth, driven primarily by out-migration among college-educated adults.
  2. The opioid epidemic induced substantial fertility increases concentrated among non-college-educated mothers, which by the end of the study period partially offset population declines.
  3. Mortality rose sharply in proportional terms but the modest absolute increase had only minimal effect on population growth, and the authors attribute the sizable, selective migration response to eroded local amenities including rising addiction, homelessness, neighborhood disorder, and strained public services.

Related Articles:

  • Republican Support and Economic Hardship: Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic — The authors estimate that geographic exposure to prescription-opioid marketing raised drug-related mortality and reliance on public transfer programs, and continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections. They estimate a one-standard-deviation increase in exposure raised the Republican House vote share by 4.5 percentage points.
  • Democracy and the Opioid Epidemic — Using US commuting zone data and the concentration of early prescription opioid marketing in cancer pain markets, the authors estimate that exposure to the opioid epidemic substantially increased the Republican vote share in congressional and presidential elections, with a one standard deviation rise in initial cancer mortality corresponding to 13.8 percentage points.
  • The Rise in American Pain: The Importance of the Great Recession — The authors find that the rise in reported pain among Americans was almost entirely concentrated in the 2007–2010 recession period rather than following a smooth upward trend, with the disproportionate increase among the less educated also occurring primarily then. The authors state they find this jump difficult to explain.

AI Summary. High school varsity athletes are absent about 1.37 percentage points less often than non-athletes over the school year, nearly 20% lower, after controlling for factors linked to both sports participation and attendance. Athletes' absence rates fall further while their sport is in season, which the authors argue suggests participation itself improves attendance.

Nat Malkus and Sam Hollon American Enterprise Institute
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The absentee rate of Indiana high school students, ~23% of whom played a varsity sport, was ~20% lower for those who participated in varsity athletics than for non-athletes. The effect was stronger when an athlete’s particular sport was in season.

Does playing high school varsity sports reduce student absenteeism?

Core argument: High school varsity athletes' absence rate across the school year was 1.37 points lower than non-athletes', a reduction of almost 20%, after controlling for factors that matter for both sports participation and attendance.

We find that varsity sports participation is strongly associated with better student attendance, and we argue it is plausible that varsity sports participation causes better attendance. When we control for a number of factors that we know matter for both sports participation and attendance, we continue to find that varsity athletes are absent less often than their peers across the entire year. Across the school year, athletes’ absence rate was 1.37 points lower than non-athletes’. That’s a reduction of almost 20%. The broad pattern shown in Table 1 is that students from more advantaged groups were more likely to participate in varsity sports and less likely to be absent from school. It’s thus no surprise that, in the raw data, there is an association between playing varsity sports and having good attendance (Figure 3). But is that because students who attend school more reliably are more likely to play sports or because playing sports leads to better attendance? One way to tease out the answer is to compare varsity athletes' attendance during their sports seasons with their attendance the rest of the year. Not only do varsity athletes have lower annual absence rates—especially unexcused absences—than non-athletes, but [Figure 3 and Figure 4] show that their absence rates fall further when their sport is in season, [which suggests at least some causal effect].

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. High school varsity athletes' absence rate across the school year was 1.37 points lower than non-athletes', a reduction of almost 20%, after controlling for factors that matter for both sports participation and attendance.
  2. Varsity athletes' absence rates fall further when their sport is in season, which the authors argue suggests at least some causal effect of participation on attendance.
  3. Students from more advantaged groups were more likely to play varsity sports and less likely to be absent, producing an association in the raw data between varsity participation and good attendance.

Related Articles:

  • The Benefits of Scholastic Athletics — Using longitudinal data with extensive controls for family background, ability, and personality, the authors estimate that college varsity athletes from disadvantaged backgrounds—including women and men from low-income families and Black men—earn more after graduation than comparable non-athletes. The authors conclude that participation in college sports promotes social mobility, with no evidence of adverse outcomes.
  • Long COVID for Public Schools: Chronic Absenteeism Before and After the Pandemic — Nationwide chronic absenteeism — the share of students missing at least 10% of a school year — rose from 15% in 2018 to 28% in 2022, and although rates improved in 2023, they remained 75% above the pre-pandemic baseline. Chronic absenteeism is associated with lower standardized test scores, with the highest rates in lower-achieving, higher-poverty districts.
  • The Latest Chronic Absenteeism Numbers — Chronic absenteeism—students missing 10% or more of the school year—rose from 15% of K–12 students before the pandemic to 28%, then eased to 26% in the first full post-pandemic school year. Data from eight states show continued declines, including New Mexico's drop from 40% to 33%, but rates remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

AI Summary. The authors estimate that state legalization of sports betting raises average quarterly betting spending per person by about $46 from a pre-legalization mean of $2.50, with spillover spending in nearby counties where betting is illegal. Three years later, median credit scores are one point lower and delinquency rates 0.31 percentage points higher.

Jacob Goss and Daniel Mangrum Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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After the legalization of sports betting in 2018, delinquency rates on a wide range of consumer debts rose, increasing .31pp as of 2025. The delinquency rate for the ~3% of the population that were new gamblers increased by ~10pp driven by those under 40.

How does legalizing sports betting affect spending and consumer credit?

Core argument: State legalization of sports betting raises average quarterly betting spending per person by roughly $46 from a pre-treatment mean of $2.50 and lifts the share of the population with any sportsbook spending by 3.1 percentage points.

Exploiting the staggered roll-out of state-level legalization following the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, we use an extended two-way fixed effects (ETWFE) framework that separately estimates direct treatment effects and cross-border spillover effects. Our first-stage estimates establish that legalization dramatically increases betting activity: average quarterly spending per person rises by roughly $46 from a pre-treatment mean of $2.50, and the share of the population with any sportsbook spending in a quarter increases by 3.1 percentage points. The effects on average spending grow continually over time with no clear evidence of saturation, suggesting the market for mobile sports betting continues to mature years after legalization. At the same time, substantial betting activity occurs in counties where sports betting is not legal but which lie near a legal state, with spillover effects on total spending roughly 14% of the direct effect for counties within 15 miles of a legal state, declining monotonically with distance and approaching zero by 60 miles. These spillovers have real consequences for consumer financial health. Three years after legalization, median credit scores are one point lower and overall delinquency rates increase by 0.31 percentage points following legalization. [Under-40 auto loan delinquency increases by half a percentage point and credit card delinquency by one percentage point, driving the overall increase in delinquency.] Since only about 3.1% of the population takes up betting after legalization, these intent-to-treat estimates would imply that those who are induced to bet due to legalization experience delinquency increases of 10 percentage points.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. State legalization of sports betting raises average quarterly betting spending per person by roughly $46 from a pre-treatment mean of $2.50 and lifts the share of the population with any sportsbook spending by 3.1 percentage points.
  2. Three years after legalization, median credit scores are one point lower and overall delinquency rates rise by 0.31 percentage points, with under-40 auto loan delinquency up half a percentage point and credit card delinquency up one percentage point.
  3. For counties within 15 miles of a legal state, spillover effects on total spending are roughly 14% of the direct effect, declining monotonically with distance and approaching zero by 60 miles.

Related Articles:

  • The Case for Prohibiting Vice — A record 62m Americans used marijuana in a single year, 17m of them daily or near daily, while half of American men now hold sports-betting accounts, up from almost zero seven years earlier. The author argues vice and addiction undermine citizens' capacity for free action, justifying state regulation beyond individual-harm criteria.
  • Americans Increasingly See Legal Sports Betting As A Bad Thing For Society and Sports — Survey data show 43% of U.S. adults say legalized sports betting is a bad thing for society, up from 34% three years earlier, and 40% say it is bad for sports, up from 33%. The largest shift came among men under 30, 47% of whom now call it bad for society versus 22% earlier.
  • From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On — Speculation now extends beyond stocks, bonds and property to crypto, valued at roughly $4tn, and sports betting, where Americans wagered $150bn in a year, up 24%, according to the American Gaming Association. Gold, traditionally a hedge against bubbles, itself looks bubbly, and working-class investors are flocking to these markets.

AI Summary. New York City's unsheltered population rose 26% from 3,588 to 4,504, while spending on services for that population more than tripled from $102m to nearly $368m. That spending grew from just under 5% to nearly 9% of total Department of Homeless Services outlays.

Thomas DiNapoli New York State Comptroller
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In 2025 New York City spent $81,705 per “street” homeless person, up 262% from 2019 whose numbers increased 26% during that period. This does not include spending on “sheltered” homeless, who are ~97% of the homeless population.

Has tripling spending on unsheltered services reduced the unsheltered population?

Core argument: New York City spending on services for the unsheltered rose 262%, from $102 million in FY 2019 to nearly $368 million in FY 2025, while the unsheltered population grew 26%, from 3,588 to 4,504.

New York City’s unsheltered population increased from 3,588 in FY 2019 to 4,504 in FY 2025 — a 26% increase from pre-pandemic levels. In that time, spending on services for this population has more than tripled, growing from $102 million in FY 2019 to nearly $368 million in FY 2025 (a 262% increase). Its share of spending has also increased, from just under 5% to nearly 9% of total Department of Homeless Services (DHS) spending.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. New York City spending on services for the unsheltered rose 262%, from $102 million in FY 2019 to nearly $368 million in FY 2025, while the unsheltered population grew 26%, from 3,588 to 4,504.
  2. Services for the unsheltered climbed from just under 5% to nearly 9% of total New York City Department of Homeless Services spending between FY 2019 and FY 2025.

Related Articles:

  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — New York state's share of US taxpayers reporting over $1m in income fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022, and the Citizens Budget Commission estimates state and city income tax receipts from that group would have been $13bn higher had the share held. Job growth has concentrated in lower-paid health care and social assistance.
  • The Clock Now Ticks on Zohran Mamdani — New York City's share of the nation's millionaires has fallen 30% since 2010 and major banks have expanded in Dallas and Atlanta as finance's share of city employment shrank. The author argues a proposed city tax plan would leave remaining high earners paying 60% of taxes.
  • Supply and The Mam — New York City has the highest combined city-state personal tax rate in the US and the highest all-in corporate income tax rate at 17.4%, and the highest industrial, retail and multifamily property taxes per square foot among ten major cities. New York State ranks first in tax collections per capita.