“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
AI Summary.Polling finds voters across party lines support populist price caps: nearly three-quarters back capping child-care costs for working families and a government website directing consumers to discounted prescription drugs, and nearly four in five back capping credit-card interest rates at 10%.
Aaron ZitnerWall Street Journal
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A WSJ survey finds bipartisan support for greater state intervention in markets: 96% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans favor requiring insurers to cover all services and medicines prescribed by doctors, while 78% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans favor capping credit card interest rates at 10%.
Do voters across party lines support capping prices and interest rates?
Core argument: Nearly 80% of voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%, a measure backed in Congress by progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley, with President Trump calling for a similar measure.
Americans in both parties back government-imposed price caps and other market interventions to make life more affordable, suggesting new support for populist ideas that were once largely outside the political mainstream. Voters of all partisan stripes strongly support capping the cost of prescription drugs, child care and credit-card interest rates. Nearly three-quarters of voters support a cap on child-care costs for working families. Nearly four in five voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%. That’s drawn bipartisan support in Congress, with progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley backing legislation to do so, and Trump calling for a similar measure. The Journal surveyed 1,500 voters. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Nearly 80% of voters support capping credit-card interest rates at 10%, a measure backed in Congress by progressive Bernie Sanders and conservative Josh Hawley, with President Trump calling for a similar measure.
Nearly three-quarters of voters support capping child-care costs for working families, an idea backed by liberal Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren.
Nearly three-quarters of voters support a government website guiding consumers to discounted drugs, which President Trump put into practice with his “Trump Rx” site.
Related Articles:
America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade— Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences— The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
Life Under Two: Debt, Deficits, and the AI Discontinuity— The United States averaged annual GDP growth above 3% for decades, but 2% or less is now more likely. Over ten years, the author estimates that gap amounts to a $3.36tn larger economy, $3.7tn more tax revenue, and 6m more jobs, shifting public psychology from abundance toward scarcity.
AI Summary.Survey data indicate 60% of U.S. adults say the term "working class" describes them well, including half of those with a bachelor's degree and half of upper-income Americans. Identification is highest among blue-collar workers at 77%, versus 61% in other occupations, and ranges from 52% of Asian adults to 62% of White adults.
Steven Shepard, Hannah Hartig, Andy Cerda and Jocelyn KileyPew Research Center
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60% of Americans say “working class” describes them “extremely” or “very” well. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to identify as working class – strikingly 61% of Republicans who have a family income of at least $155,600 identify as working class, compared to 38% of such Democrats.
Do most Americans identify as working class across income and education levels?
Core argument: 60% of U.S. adults say the term "working class" describes them well, an identity adopted across income and educational groups, including half of those with a bachelor's degree and half of upper-income Americans.
Most Americans think of themselves as “working class” today: Overall, 60% of U.S. adults say the term describes them well. And the identity is widely adopted by people across all income and educational groups – including half of both Americans who have a bachelor’s degree and those who are upper-income. Those working in blue-collar occupations are particularly likely to identify as working class (77%), [as are] a majority of those working in other occupations (61%). White adults are more likely than Black adults to identify as working class. About six-in-ten White (62%) and Hispanic adults (59%) overall view themselves as working class, as do roughly half of Black (54%) and Asian adults (52%).
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
60% of U.S. adults say the term "working class" describes them well, an identity adopted across income and educational groups, including half of those with a bachelor's degree and half of upper-income Americans.
Workers in blue-collar occupations identify as working class at a rate of 77%, compared with 61% of those in other occupations.
About 62% of White and 59% of Hispanic adults view themselves as working class, as do roughly 54% of Black and 52% of Asian adults.
Related Articles:
America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade— Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
Political Representation Gaps and Populism— A study comparing survey responses of citizens and parliamentarians across 27 European countries finds that policymaking reflects voters' economic attitudes well, but the average parliamentarian is about one standard deviation more culturally liberal than the national mean voter. The author finds this cultural gap spans nearly all issues, countries, and established parties, and that right-wing populists fill it.
The DSA Sweet Spot: Highly Educated, Downwardly Mobile— US voters most likely to identify as "very liberal" hold postgraduate degrees but household incomes of $30,000–$60,000 a year, an unusual combination given that education and income are typically positively correlated. In the Democratic Socialists of America's most recent member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older had bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000.
AI Summary.More than 60% of Americans oppose new data centers in their area, up from 49% earlier in the year, according to a University of Pennsylvania poll, and dozens of states and localities have imposed bans or pauses on new projects. Texas halted approvals of roughly 1,800 new data centers worth billions of dollars.
Amrith Ramkumar and Sabrina RodriguezWall Street Journal
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A UPenn survey found ~60% of Americans oppose new data centers in their area, up from 49% in March. In Texas, previously supportive governor Greg Abbott halted approval of ~1,800 datacenters in the state.
Is public opposition to new data centers rising sharply?
Core argument: More than 60% of Americans oppose new data centers in their area, up from 49% in March, according to a University of Pennsylvania poll.
In November Greg Abbott declared his state the “epicenter of AI development” while announcing a $40 billion investment by Google. Less than a year later, the Republican said he halted approvals of some 1,800 new data centers worth billions of dollars. More than 60% of Americans now oppose new data centers in their area, up from 49% in March, a University of Pennsylvania poll found. The backlash is a crisis for AI companies, which are facing bans or pauses on new projects in dozens of states and localities. [The bans or pauses] pose a risk to investors heading into the 2028 presidential election, analysts at Evercore ISI said in a note to clients.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
More than 60% of Americans oppose new data centers in their area, up from 49% in March, according to a University of Pennsylvania poll.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who declared his state the "epicenter of AI development" while announcing a $40 billion Google investment, said he halted approvals of some 1,800 new data centers worth billions of dollars.
Evercore ISI analysts told clients that bans or pauses on new data center projects across dozens of states and localities pose a risk to investors heading into the 2028 presidential election.
Related Articles:
AI is the Democratic Party’s Next Villain— Mentions of billionaires in Democratic fundraising emails quadrupled to a peak above 20% of all emails sent and have held near 15%, making anti-billionaire messaging a mainstay. Anti-AI populism remains far smaller and is entering Democratic rhetoric not as a jobs or safety issue but as something billionaires are building.
This Doommaxxing Has Got to Stop— The author argues that negative narratives, including pessimism about new technology, played an underappreciated role in the economic climate of the Great Depression, alongside more widely studied causes such as sweeping bank failures, a weak initial Federal Reserve response, and a tariff regime that reduced global trade.
America’s Data Center Build-Out Is Falling Way Behind Schedule— A JPMorgan analysis found that more than 60% of US data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 has not yet begun construction, with another 7% delayed. Analysts and power-industry experts say Google's strategy of owning generation—including its $4.75bn purchase of wind and solar developer Intersect—and shifting computing loads to follow power supply could speed its grid connections.
AI Summary.An analysis of X (formerly Twitter) posts finds that the share of sentences expressing anger rose among both Democratic- and Republican-affiliated users, with Republicans starting from a higher baseline of about 38% versus 27% for Democrats and reaching roughly 50%. The increase was larger among Democrats, narrowing the partisan gap.
Eva Davoine, Stefanie Stantcheva, Thomas Renault and Yann AlganHarvard University
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Davoine, et al. show that angry policy-related tweets among voters rose from 34% to 46% over 2013–2025. Angry posts got ~60% more retweets, and experiments that induced anger showed it can move views on trade, immigration, redistribution and climate.
Is anger rising among partisans on social media?
Core argument: Anger among Republican-affiliated X users reaches roughly 50% of sentences by 2025, up from about 38% at the start of the period, continuing to rise during Biden's presidency.
Figure 6 illustrates the monthly evolution of anger among Democratic- and Republican-affiliated X [Twitter] users. Each line reports the share of sentences classified as expressing anger within each political affiliation, and the plotted series are shown as six-month moving averages. It shows that Republican voters start with a higher baseline level of anger at the beginning of the period (about 38% compared to 27% for Democrats). Anger rises sharply for both groups after the 2016 election, but much more among Democrats. As a result, the initial partisan gap is much smaller by 2019. Both series then plateau from 2019 to 2022. Among Democratic partisans, anger declines slightly after Biden’s election but remains well above pre-2016 levels. Republican anger continues to rise during the Biden presidency, reaching approximately 50% by 2025.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Anger among Republican-affiliated X users reaches roughly 50% of sentences by 2025, up from about 38% at the start of the period, continuing to rise during Biden's presidency.
Democratic-affiliated X users start with anger in about 27% of sentences, then rise sharply after the 2016 election by much more than Republicans, narrowing the partisan gap by 2019.
Both partisan anger series plateau from 2019 to 2022, with Democratic anger declining slightly after Biden's election while remaining well above pre-2016 levels.
Related Articles:
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences— The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
Life Under Two: Debt, Deficits, and the AI Discontinuity— The United States averaged annual GDP growth above 3% for decades, but 2% or less is now more likely. Over ten years, the author estimates that gap amounts to a $3.36tn larger economy, $3.7tn more tax revenue, and 6m more jobs, shifting public psychology from abundance toward scarcity.
The DSA Sweet Spot: Highly Educated, Downwardly Mobile— US voters most likely to identify as "very liberal" hold postgraduate degrees but household incomes of $30,000–$60,000 a year, an unusual combination given that education and income are typically positively correlated. In the Democratic Socialists of America's most recent member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older had bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000.
AI Summary.Democratic turnout in midterm elections is not among the party's problems, and midterm conditions favor it despite internal disarray. A president with a 38% approval rating, an unpopular Middle East quagmire, spiking gas prices, and an 80-year-old lame-duck incumbent coincide with worldwide voter anger toward whoever holds power.
Nate Silver and Eli McKown-DawsonSilver Bulletin
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Nate Silver’s midterm election model gives the Democrats an ~86% chance of flipping the House and a ~56% chance of flipping the Senate though Silver notes, “I’ll admit to being slightly surprised by that [Senate] number.”
Do favorable midterm conditions outweigh a party's internal disarray?
Core argument: Democrats face many problems, but turning out their voters in midterm elections is not one of them, the piece argues.
The Democratic Party has a whole host of problems; turning out their voters in midterms isn’t one of them. For midterm election purposes, you’d rather have a little internal disarray than have a president with a 38% approval rating on the basis of an unpopular quagmire in the Middle East and understandable voter anxiety about spiking gas prices. Not to mention voter fatigue over an 80-year-old, lame duck president at a time when the incumbency “advantage” has turned into persistent anger all around the world toward the status quo and whoever is in charge of it.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Democrats face many problems, but turning out their voters in midterm elections is not one of them, the piece argues.
For midterm purposes, the piece argues, internal disarray is preferable to a president with a 38% approval rating amid an unpopular Middle East quagmire and voter anxiety over spiking gas prices.
Voter fatigue with an 80-year-old lame-duck president coincides with incumbency turning from an advantage into persistent anger worldwide toward the status quo and whoever is in charge, the piece argues.
Related Articles:
Is The Vibecession Real — Or Is The Survey Broken?— The Index of Consumer Sentiment is distorted by an oversampling of Democrats and by a shift from telephone to online polling that made responses more negative, with partisan nonresponse and respondents using economic questions to express political views. Adjusting for both leaves sentiment historically low but not at Great Recession lows.
America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade— Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences— The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
AI Summary.US voters most likely to identify as "very liberal" hold postgraduate degrees but household incomes of $30,000–$60,000 a year, an unusual combination given that education and income are typically positively correlated. In the Democratic Socialists of America's most recent member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older had bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000.
Nate SilverSilver Bulletin
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Silver finds that the most liberal voters are highly educated and lower-income. Only 19% of Americans with a college degree had a household income of $60,000 or less, but responders to a DSA survey were ~ twice as likely to fall into that category.
Do highly educated, lower-income voters identify as very liberal?
Core argument: In the Democratic Socialists of America's 2021 member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older held bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000 per year.
The US voters most likely to identify as “very liberal” are those with postgraduate degrees but lower-to-middle household incomes of $30K to $60K per year. This is very much also the sweet spot for the DSA. In the DSA’s most recent member survey in 2021, 80% of members aged 25 or older had bachelor’s degrees, but 45% had household incomes below $60,000 per year. This is unusual because education and income are usually substantially positively correlated. In the composite CES data, only 19% of Americans with bachelor’s degrees or higher had household incomes of $60K or below, while respondents to the most recent DSA survey [were twice as likely to fall into this category].
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
In the Democratic Socialists of America's 2021 member survey, 80% of members aged 25 or older held bachelor's degrees while 45% reported household incomes below $60,000 per year.
Composite CES data show only 19% of Americans with bachelor's degrees or higher had household incomes of $60,000 or below, while DSA survey respondents were twice as likely to fall into that category.
US voters most likely to identify as "very liberal" are those with postgraduate degrees and household incomes of $30,000 to $60,000 per year, an unusual pairing since education and income are usually substantially positively correlated.
Related Articles:
America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade— Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences— The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
Political Representation Gaps and Populism— A study comparing survey responses of citizens and parliamentarians across 27 European countries finds that policymaking reflects voters' economic attitudes well, but the average parliamentarian is about one standard deviation more culturally liberal than the national mean voter. The author finds this cultural gap spans nearly all issues, countries, and established parties, and that right-wing populists fill it.
AI Summary.Mentions of billionaires in Democratic fundraising emails quadrupled to a peak above 20% of all emails sent and have held near 15%, making anti-billionaire messaging a mainstay. Anti-AI populism remains far smaller and is entering Democratic rhetoric not as a jobs or safety issue but as something billionaires are building.
Andy HallFree Systems
Date Posted:
An analysis of Democratic party fundraising emails finds mentions of billionaires spiked in 2025 and remained elevated. Hall argues, “AI is currently entering Democratic rhetoric through the anti-billionaire frame—the oligarchy story makes AI legible as a villain.”
How is artificial intelligence entering Democratic fundraising rhetoric?
Core argument: Billionaire mentions in Democratic fundraising emails quadrupled in the weeks after the January 2025 inauguration, peaking above 20% of all emails sent and holding near 15% since.
For most of the past decade, anti-billionaire language was a niche product. Then came January 2025. In the weeks after an inauguration billionaire mentions in Democratic emails quadrupled, peaking above 20% of all emails sent and holding around 15% ever since. Anti-billionaire fundraising tactics are now a mainstay of Democratic messaging. Economic populism is widespread, particularly in the form of billionaire bashing; anti-AI populism is much, much smaller, but just starting to show signs of growth. And the way it’s growing matters. AI is not currently entering Democratic rhetoric as a jobs issue or a safety issue—it’s entering as the newest thing the billionaires are building, pushed first by the same progressive members who pioneered billionaire bashing before it conquered the rest of the party. Today, AI sits in Democratic fundraising rhetoric almost exactly where the billionaire sat in 2019—a message popular mostly with the party’s left flank, and not commonplace in the party as a whole.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Billionaire mentions in Democratic fundraising emails quadrupled in the weeks after the January 2025 inauguration, peaking above 20% of all emails sent and holding near 15% since.
Anti-AI populism in Democratic messaging remains far smaller than billionaire bashing, entering party rhetoric not as a jobs or safety issue but as the newest thing billionaires are building.
AI messaging is pushed first by the same progressive members who pioneered billionaire bashing, and sits roughly where anti-billionaire rhetoric sat in 2019: popular with the party's left flank, not commonplace across the party.
Related Articles:
The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay— Labor's share of gross domestic income fell to 51%, the lowest since records began in 1947, while profits' share rose to 12.1%, the highest since 1950. Inflation-adjusted hourly wages are up 3% since the end of 2019, compared with a 50% rise in profits.
This Doommaxxing Has Got to Stop— The author argues that negative narratives, including pessimism about new technology, played an underappreciated role in the economic climate of the Great Depression, alongside more widely studied causes such as sweeping bank failures, a weak initial Federal Reserve response, and a tariff regime that reduced global trade.
America’s Support for Capitalism Has Declined Over Last Decade— Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
AI Summary.Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 12% say democracy is working very or extremely well, and 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics.
Aaron ZitnerWall Street Journal
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A new WSJ poll finds only 35% of Americans think the assertion that “if you work hard, you’ll get ahead” still holds. Only 42% of respondents aged 18–34 think capitalism is working very or somewhat well, relative to 56% of those 65 or older.
Has American confidence in capitalism and democracy declined?
Core argument: Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey.
Americans are losing confidence in two main pillars of society: capitalism and democracy. Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very well or even somewhat well, down from 60% who said so about a decade ago, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC survey. Only 35% are even fairly sure that the nation offers people the ability to get good jobs and achieve the American dream. Confidence in the nation’s system of government is even lower. Only 12% say democracy is working very well or extremely well, and a mere 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics. Two-thirds of Republicans said they were very proud of American history, three times the share of Democrats who said so. And Republicans in the survey stood apart in their belief in American exceptionalism, the long-held idea that the U.S. is unique or superior among nations. Nearly half of Republicans said that America stands above all other countries in the world, compared with only 8% of Democrats and 13% of independents.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Just under half of Americans say capitalism is working very or somewhat well, down from 60% about a decade ago, according to a Wall Street Journal-NORC survey.
Only 12% of Americans say democracy is working very or extremely well, 16% say average citizens have considerable influence on politics, and 35% are fairly sure the nation offers good jobs and the American dream.
Two-thirds of Republicans said they were very proud of American history, three times the Democratic share, and nearly half said America stands above all other countries, compared with 8% of Democrats and 13% of independents.
Related Articles:
Life Under Two: Debt, Deficits, and the AI Discontinuity— The United States averaged annual GDP growth above 3% for decades, but 2% or less is now more likely. Over ten years, the author estimates that gap amounts to a $3.36tn larger economy, $3.7tn more tax revenue, and 6m more jobs, shifting public psychology from abundance toward scarcity.
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences— The authors construct an index of "zero-sum thinking" — the belief that one group's economic gains come at another's expense across ethnic groups, citizens versus non-citizens, and countries in international trade. Among both moderate and strong Democrats, those in the top quartile of zero-sum thinking voted for Donald Trump at a disproportionately high rate.
Political Representation Gaps and Populism— A study comparing survey responses of citizens and parliamentarians across 27 European countries finds that policymaking reflects voters' economic attitudes well, but the average parliamentarian is about one standard deviation more culturally liberal than the national mean voter. The author finds this cultural gap spans nearly all issues, countries, and established parties, and that right-wing populists fill it.
