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“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
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“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
AI Summary.An analysis of authors at a leading AI research conference finds China is the largest originating source of elite AI talent, with its share of researchers holding Chinese undergraduate degrees rising 11 percentage points to 57%, while the US share fell to 13%. The US remains a net importer of AI researchers, gaining 2,145 while China lost 1,729.
Damien Ma and Binyi YangCarnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Surveying education/employment histories of authors at the Neural Information Processing Systems conference, Ma and Yang infer China educated 57% of elite AI talent as of 2025, versus 13% for the US. Yet the US gained 2,145 researchers y/y while China lost 1,729.
Does China produce the most elite AI talent while America attracts it?
Core argument: Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find China’s share of elite AI talent, defined by undergraduate degrees earned in China, rose 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025 versus 2022, while the U.S. share fell to 13%.
[Using a methodology based on paper authors from the Neural Information Processing Systems conference (NeurIPS) Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find] China has established a commanding lead as the largest originating source of elite AI talent globally. Compared to 2022, the share of Chinese-origin AI talent, defined as those who received undergraduate degrees in China, increased 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025, while the U.S. share fell to 13%. The United States remains a magnet for global AI talent, particularly Chinese talent. Despite U.S.-China tensions, among AI researchers working in the United States, the 2025 share of those holding undergraduate degrees from China rose by 4 percentage points. When it comes to brain gain vs. brain drain, the United States saw a net gain of +2,145 researchers in 2025 while China registered a net loss of -1,729 researchers.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Damien Ma and Binyi Yang find China’s share of elite AI talent, defined by undergraduate degrees earned in China, rose 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025 versus 2022, while the U.S. share fell to 13%.
Among AI researchers working in the United States, the share holding Chinese undergraduate degrees rose 4 percentage points in 2025, despite U.S.-China tensions.
The United States recorded a net gain of 2,145 AI researchers in 2025, while China registered a net loss of 1,729, under Ma and Yang’s methodology based on NeurIPS paper authors.
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