Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The authors use the end of UK sugar rationing as a natural experiment and estimate that a sugar-rich early-childhood diet raised adult chronic inflammation, diabetes, cholesterol and arthritis, and led to less human capital, lower odds of a skilled occupation, and less wealth. They also find early exposure elevated sugar consumption across the lifespan.

Paul Gertler and Tadeja Gračner Working Paper
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Using a regression discontinuity design exploiting the end of sugar rationing in September 1953, Gertler and Gračner find that birth cohorts post-dating the policy change experience worse lifetime outcomes in many health measures as well as economic success.

Does a sugar-rich early childhood diet worsen adult health and wealth?

Core argument: Using the end of UK sugar and sweets rationing in 1953 as a natural experiment, the authors find that early-childhood exposure to a sugar-rich diet increased adult chronic inflammation, a marker of chronic disease.

We study the long-term effects of exposure to a sugar-rich diet in early childhood on health and economic well-being in later adulthood, and identify diet as a possible pathway. We exploit the end of sugar and sweets rationing in 1953 in the UK as a natural experiment inducing variation in exposure to a sugar-rich diet in early childhood. We find that the end of rationing increased the adult prevalence of chronic inflammation, an important marker of chronic disease. We also find increases in poor metabolic health; particularly diabetes, cholesterol and arthritis. Finally, we find that excessive intake of sugar also results in worse economic outcomes; specifically, in reduced human capital accumulation, a lower likelihood of having a skilled occupation, and a lower accumulation of wealth. While the effects of a sugar-rich diet early in life may have affected these outcomes directly via physiological programming, we find that a sugar-rich diet early in life elevated free sugar consumption across lifespan, consistent with evidence that life-long dietary preferences and habits form early, and that sugar may be addictive.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Using the end of UK sugar and sweets rationing in 1953 as a natural experiment, the authors find that early-childhood exposure to a sugar-rich diet increased adult chronic inflammation, a marker of chronic disease.
  2. The authors find that early-childhood exposure to a sugar-rich diet raised the prevalence of poor metabolic health in later adulthood, particularly diabetes, cholesterol and arthritis.
  3. Early exposure to a sugar-rich diet is associated with worse economic outcomes — reduced human capital accumulation, a lower likelihood of holding a skilled occupation, and lower wealth accumulation — and with elevated free sugar consumption across the lifespan.

Related Articles:

AI Summary. US registered nurses earn a median annual wage of $93,600 versus $49,500 for all occupations, while nurses with advanced degrees, such as nurse practitioners, earn $132,050, according to the Labor Department. The Labor Department projects advanced-degree nursing employment will grow 35% over a decade, against 3% for all occupations and 5% for registered nurses.

Jeanne Whalen Wall Street Journal
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The median annual wage for a nurse in 2024 was $93,600; those with an advanced degree earned $132,050. The Labor Department forecasts that employment of nurses with advanced degrees will increase 35% btw 2024 and 2034 relative to job growth of 3%.

Is nursing one of the highest-paying, fastest-growing career paths?

Core argument: The median annual wage for U.S. registered nurses is $93,600, compared with $49,500 across all occupations, according to the Labor Department.

The median annual wage for registered nurses in the U.S. is $93,600, compared with $49,500 for all occupations, according to the Labor Department. For nurse practitioners and others with advanced degrees, it is $132,050. The Labor Department projects that employment of advanced-degree nurses will increase by 35% from 2024 to 2034, eclipsing the expected 3% growth across all occupations. Registered-nurse employment is projected to rise 5% over that period.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The median annual wage for U.S. registered nurses is $93,600, compared with $49,500 across all occupations, according to the Labor Department.
  2. Nurse practitioners and other nurses with advanced degrees have a median annual wage of $132,050, according to the Labor Department.
  3. The Labor Department projects employment of advanced-degree nurses will rise 35% from 2024 to 2034, against 5% for registered nurses and 3% across all occupations.

Related Articles:

  • Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve? — The authors estimate that a slowdown in US health care spending reflects technology-associated changes in health and site of care (21% of the slowdown, double that in Medicare), more elastic long-run supply (6%), market changes reducing and making demand more elastic (11–27%), improved population health (7%), and slower price growth net of upcoding (24%).
  • Sick as a Dog — US healthcare stocks tracked technology-sector returns from 1989 to 2019 with lower volatility (15% vs 24%), but have since stagnated as technology advanced. Major pharmaceutical firms trade at forward price-to-earnings ratios of 8x–9x, biotech carries one of the market's largest valuation discounts, and 80% of biotech initial public offerings since 2018 have collapsed.
  • Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults — Using linked Census and tax records for 37m low-income adults, the authors estimate that state Medicaid expansions raised enrollment by 12 percentage points and cut mortality among low-income adults by 2.5%, implying a 21% reduction in the mortality hazard of new enrollees. They estimate direct budgetary costs of $5.4m per life saved and $179,000 per life-year saved.

AI Summary. In a randomized trial of 15,965 hospitalized patients, an artificial-intelligence electrocardiogram system that flagged patients predicted to be at high risk of death and sent warning messages to physicians was associated with lower 90-day all-cause mortality, 3.6% in the intervention group versus 4.3% in the control group.

Chin-Sheng Lin, Wei-Ting Liu, Dung-Jang Tsa, et al. Nature Medicine
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A study of 15,965 cardiac patients in Taiwan found that AI-enabled electrocardiogram alerts to physicians reduced the 90-day mortality of high-risk patients from 4.3% in a control group to 3.6% in the AI-ECG group.

Do AI risk alerts sent to physicians reduce patient mortality?

Core argument: In a multisite randomized controlled trial, an AI-enabled ECG alert was associated with 90-day all-cause mortality of 3.6% in the intervention group versus 4.3% in the control group, meeting the trial's primary outcome.

This study evaluated the ability of an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled electrocardiogram (ECG) to identify hospitalized patients with a high risk of mortality in a multisite randomized controlled trial involving 39 physicians and 15,965 patients. The AI-ECG alert intervention included an AI report and warning messages delivered to the physicians, flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality. The trial met its primary outcome, finding that implementation of the AI-ECG alert was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality within 90 days: 3.6% of patients in the intervention group died within 90 days, compared to 4.3% in the control group (4.3%).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. In a multisite randomized controlled trial, an AI-enabled ECG alert was associated with 90-day all-cause mortality of 3.6% in the intervention group versus 4.3% in the control group, meeting the trial's primary outcome.
  2. The trial involved 15,965 hospitalized patients and 39 physicians, with the intervention delivering an AI report and warning messages flagging patients predicted to be at high risk of mortality.

Related Articles:

  • Assessing the Implications of a Productivity Miracle — If artificial intelligence can perform economically valuable cognitive tasks at very low marginal cost, consumers would buy far more of the cheapened goods and spend the savings in other categories, expanding activity and employment in sectors facing new demand. Where supply is inherently limited, such as real estate, those savings could bid up prices and produce inflation.

AI Summary. Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities 2-3x what it pays independent physician offices for the same service, creating an incentive for hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices; the share of hospital-owned physician practices rose from 14% to 31% over six years. Equalizing payments is estimated to save $346bn-$672bn over a decade.

Bobby Jindal and Charlie Katebi Wall Street Journal
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.@BobbyJindal argues that simple reforms in Medicare billing could save patients and taxpayers somewhere between $346B and $672B over the next 10 years.

.@BobbyJindal argues that simple reforms in Medicare billing could save patients and taxpayers somewhere between $346B and...

How much would paying the same rate regardless of ownership save?

Core argument: Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities two to three times as much as independent physician offices for the same service, according to the Alliance for Site Neutral Payment Reform, creating an incentive for large hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices.

Cur­rently, Medicare pays hos­pi­tal-owned fa­cil­i­ties two to three times as much as in­de­pen­dent physi­cian of­fices for the same ser­vice, ac­cord­ing to the Al­liance for Site Neu­tral Pay­ment Re­form. This cre­ates an enor­mous in­cen­tive for large hos­pi­tal chains to ac­quire out­pa­tient prac­tices. A re­port by the Physi­cian Ad­vo­cacy In­sti­tute found that the share of hos­pi­tal-owned physi­cian prac­tices more than dou­bled, from 14% to 31%, be­tween 2012 and 2018. By 2020 more than half of physi­cians worked di­rectly for a hos­pi­tal or at a physi­cian prac­tice owned by a hos­pi­tal, ac­cord­ing to the Amer­i­can Med­ical As­so­ci­a­tion.  Re­mov­ing these per­verse in­cen­tives could save pa­tients and tax­pay­ers be­tween $346 bil­lion and $672 bil­lion over the next decade.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Medicare pays hospital-owned facilities two to three times as much as independent physician offices for the same service, according to the Alliance for Site Neutral Payment Reform, creating an incentive for large hospital chains to acquire outpatient practices.
  2. The share of hospital-owned physician practices more than doubled, from 14% to 31%, between 2012 and 2018, according to a Physician Advocacy Institute report, and by 2020 more than half of physicians worked for a hospital or hospital-owned practice, according to the American Medical Association.
  3. Removing Medicare's site-based payment differences could save patients and taxpayers between $346 billion and $672 billion over the next decade.

AI Summary. Excess deaths in the US have fallen almost to zero across three separate measures, after exceeding 30% above normal during Covid's worst phases and staying above 10% for long stretches. The Human Mortality Database estimates slightly fewer Americans than normal have died, while The Economist and the Centers for Disease Control put excess deaths below 1%.

David Leonhardt New York Times
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Excess deaths in the United States have returned to pre-pandemic levels. According to the CDC, the weekly excess death level is less than 1%. @DLeonhardt

Have US excess deaths returned to normal levels?

Core argument: U.S. excess deaths have fallen almost to zero across three separate measures, after daily deaths from all causes ran more than 30% above normal during Covid's worst phases.

The total number of Americans dying each day — from any cause — is no longer historically abnormal. During Covid’s worst phases, the total number of Americans dying each day was more than 30% higher than normal, a shocking increase. For long stretches of the past three years, the excess was above 10%. But during the past few months, excess deaths have fallen almost to zero, according to three different measures. The Human Mortality Database estimates that slightly fewer Americans than normal have died since March, while The Economist magazine and the Center for Disease Control both put the excess-death number below 1% percent.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. excess deaths have fallen almost to zero across three separate measures, after daily deaths from all causes ran more than 30% above normal during Covid's worst phases.
  2. The Human Mortality Database estimates slightly fewer Americans than normal have died since March, while The Economist and the CDC both put excess deaths below 1%.
  3. For long stretches of the past three years, total daily U.S. deaths from any cause exceeded normal levels by more than 10%.

Related Articles:

  • Our Model Suggests That Global Deaths Remain 5% Above Pre-Covid Forecasts — A model estimates global deaths remain about 5% above pre-Covid forecasts, though its confidence interval for the current excess-death rate stretches from near zero to mid-2020 levels. Relative to people aged 65 and over, excess-death rates in rich countries are three times lower than elsewhere, but older populations leave overall mortality rates similar.

AI Summary. The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has infected humans rarely, but 56% of known human cases have died, and its inability to spread easily between people has kept it from causing a pandemic. The virus is infecting more migratory birds and various mammals, raising the risk that a new variant could spread among people.

Zeynep Tufekci New York Times
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.@zeynep argues that given the increasing spread of the H5N1 bird flu, which has a 56% mortality rate, the United States and WHO should expand their influenza surveillance networks.

.@zeynep argues that given the increasing spread of the H5N1 bird flu, which has a 56% mortality rate, the United States and...

Is avian influenza's spread among birds and mammals raising pandemic risk?

Core argument: Among people known to have contracted the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, 56 percent have died, though human infections have been rare.

Bird flu — known more formally as avian influenza — has long hovered on the horizons of scientists’ fears. This pathogen, especially the H5N1 strain, hasn’t often infected humans, but when it has, 56 percent of those known to have contracted it have died. Its inability to spread easily, if at all, from one person to another has kept it from causing a pandemic. But things are changing. The virus, which has long caused outbreaks among poultry, is infecting more and more migratory birds, allowing it to spread more widely, even to various mammals, raising the risk that a new variant could spread to and among people.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Among people known to have contracted the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, 56 percent have died, though human infections have been rare.
  2. H5N1's inability to spread easily, if at all, between people has kept it from causing a pandemic.
  3. H5N1, long a cause of poultry outbreaks, is infecting more migratory birds and spreading more widely, including to various mammals, raising the risk that a new variant could spread to and among people.

AI Summary. The mortality rate for Americans aged 15 to 34 reached its highest level since 1973, driven mostly by external causes such as accidents including drug overdoses, suicides and homicides. Covid causes heart inflammation at higher rates than vaccines do, and heart-disease deaths among 15-to-34-year-olds did not increase after vaccines became available.

Justin Fox Bloomberg
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The mortality rate for Americans aged 15-34 in 2021 was the highest since 1973. Deaths due to accidents (including drug overdoses,) suicides, and homicides were up 32% percent from 2019. @foxjust

Why are death rates among young Americans at multi-decade highs?

Core argument: The 2021 U.S. mortality rate for ages 15–34 was the highest since 1973, and for ages 25–34 the highest since 1950, mostly from external causes such as accidents including drug overdoses, suicides and homicides.

The 2021 mortality rate for those 15 to 34 was the highest since 1973, and for those 25 to 34, it was the highest since 1950. That something, it should be clear from the chart, is mostly external causes such as accidents (including accidental drug overdoses), suicides and homicides. Covid itself has been found to cause myocarditis, pericarditis and other heart troubles at a higher rate than the vaccines do, and given that the initial increase in heart-disease deaths coincided with the arrival of Covid, the simplest explanation is that Covid is chiefly to blame. There certainly was no big increase in heart-disease deaths after the vaccines arrived: in the 12 months starting in July 2021, there were 106 fewer heart-disease deaths among 15-to-34-year-olds than in the previous 12.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The 2021 U.S. mortality rate for ages 15–34 was the highest since 1973, and for ages 25–34 the highest since 1950, mostly from external causes such as accidents including drug overdoses, suicides and homicides.
  2. In the 12 months starting July 2021, heart-disease deaths among 15-to-34-year-olds were 106 fewer than in the prior 12 months, indicating no large increase after Covid vaccines arrived.
  3. Covid has been found to cause myocarditis, pericarditis and other heart troubles at a higher rate than the vaccines do, and the initial rise in heart-disease deaths coincided with Covid's arrival, making Covid the simplest explanation.

AI Summary. Using synthetic control methods on eight state Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults, the authors find no statistically significant effects on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, or HIV-related adult mortality in any treated state or in the states combined.

Charles Courtemanche, Jordan Jones, et al National Bureau Of Economic Research
Date Posted:

New @nberpubs finds that Medicaid expansion between 1994 and 2005 had no impact on mortality rates: “we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined.”

New @nberpubs finds that Medicaid expansion between 1994 and 2005 had no impact on mortality rates: “we find no...

Do state Medicaid expansions reduce adult mortality?

Core argument: At a 5% significance level, the authors find no evidence that eight state Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults from 1994 through 2005 affected all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, or HIV-related mortality in any treated state or all combined.

This paper examines the impact of Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults on adult mortality. Specifically, we evaluate the long-run effects of eight state Medicaid expansions from 1994 through 2005 on all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, and HIV-related mortality rates using state-level data. We utilize the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method to estimate average effects across all treated states. Using a 5% significance level, we find no evidence that Medicaid expansions affect any of the outcomes in any of the treated states or all of them combined. Moreover, there is no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects. These findings imply that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. At a 5% significance level, the authors find no evidence that eight state Medicaid expansions to parents and childless adults from 1994 through 2005 affected all-cause, healthcare-amenable, non-healthcare-amenable, or HIV-related mortality in any treated state or all combined.
  2. The authors apply the synthetic control method to estimate effects for each treated state separately and the generalized synthetic control method for average effects across treated states, using state-level data.
  3. The authors report no clear pattern in the signs of the estimated treatment effects, implying that evidence that pre-ACA Medicaid expansions to adults saved lives is not as clear as previously suggested.