“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
AI Summary.The European earth observation service reported an August global average surface air temperature of just under 62.6°F, 2.97°F above the pre-industrial baseline and on a par with the prior record, with global sea temperature at 69.93°F. Provisional US data recorded 100 consecutive days of record ocean warming.
Attracta Mooney and Aditi BhandariFinancial Times
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Global mean sea-surface temperature reached 69.9°F in August, amid 100 consecutive days of record ocean warming since early June, according to provisional NOAA data. The increase in temperature has been amplified by the El Niño cycle.
Are global air and ocean temperatures setting new records?
Core argument: The European earth observation service put August’s global average surface air temperature at 2.97°F above the pre-industrial baseline, just under 62.6°F, on a par with the previous record set in July 2023.
The European earth observation service said the global average surface air temperature in August was 2.97°F higher than the pre-industrial baseline, reaching just under 62.6°F. This put it on a par with the previous record set in July 2023. The global sea temperature in August was put at 69.93°F. This week marked 100 consecutive days of record warming since early June, according to provisional data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This stretch was exceeded during the previous El Niño cycle. It is estimated that El Niño typically affects the global mean temperature by about 0.36°F, although the magnitude was likely to be larger this year because of the extent of the naturally occurring event.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The European earth observation service put August’s global average surface air temperature at 2.97°F above the pre-industrial baseline, just under 62.6°F, on a par with the previous record set in July 2023.
Global sea temperature in August was put at 69.93°F, and provisional NOAA data show 100 consecutive days of record warming since early June, a stretch exceeded during the previous El Niño cycle.
El Niño is estimated to affect the global mean temperature by about 0.36°F, though the magnitude was likely to be larger this year given the extent of the naturally occurring event.
Related Articles:
Warming Seas Are Brewing Extreme Weather In Months Ahead, Scientists Forecast— Global sea temperatures reached their second highest level on record for the month of April, with the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific. Scientists say this raises concerns that an El Niño warming cycle is forming, which would temporarily accelerate global air temperature rise and intensify fires, floods and droughts.
The Dangerous Effects Of Rising Sea Temperatures— The world's oceans have absorbed 90% of excess heat and about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions during the industrial era, and scientists are investigating what drove an anomalous rise in sea temperatures and whether seas will cool again. Researchers caution there is no guarantee oceans will keep absorbing heat at the same rate.
Three Tough Truths About Climate— The International Energy Agency's projection for annual carbon dioxide emissions in 2040 has fallen from 50bn tons to 30bn tons, though the world is expected to fall far short of the 1.5°C Paris goal, with warming likely between 2°C and 3°C by 2100. Global energy demand is projected to more than double by 2050.
AI Summary.Global sea temperatures reached their second highest level on record for the month of April, with the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific. Scientists say this raises concerns that an El Niño warming cycle is forming, which would temporarily accelerate global air temperature rise and intensify fires, floods and droughts.
Attracta MooneyFinancial Times
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April’s global ocean temperatures rose to their second-highest level on record, suggesting a brewing El Niño warming cycle. April temperatures were just shy of their level in 2024, which was also an El Niño year.
Are record ocean temperatures signaling more extreme weather ahead?
Core argument: Global average sea-surface temperatures for non-polar oceans reached 21°C (69.8°F) in April, just below the record 21.04°C (69.9°F) set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.
Sea temperatures around the world were the second highest on record for the month of April, stoking concerns among scientists that an El Niño warming cycle is brewing that would intensify extreme weather. The naturally occurring El Niño weather phenomenon, where water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer, temporarily accelerates the rise in global air temperature, resulting in the spread of fires, floods and droughts. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific in April, while the global average for non-polar oceans reached 21°C [69.8°F]— just shy of the 21.04°C [69.9°F] record set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Global average sea-surface temperatures for non-polar oceans reached 21°C (69.8°F) in April, just below the record 21.04°C (69.9°F) set in April 2024 during the last El Niño event.
The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record sea-surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific in April, stoking scientists' concerns that an El Niño warming cycle is brewing.
El Niño, in which central and eastern tropical Pacific waters become significantly warmer, temporarily accelerates the rise in global air temperature and results in the spread of fires, floods and droughts.
Related Articles:
Three Tough Truths About Climate— The International Energy Agency's projection for annual carbon dioxide emissions in 2040 has fallen from 50bn tons to 30bn tons, though the world is expected to fall far short of the 1.5°C Paris goal, with warming likely between 2°C and 3°C by 2100. Global energy demand is projected to more than double by 2050.
The Most Amazing Climate Policy Figure— U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels moved closely with GDP from 1992 to about 2005, after which the two decoupled, with GDP continuing to rise while emissions fell.
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026— Estimates based on primary energy overstate how much electricity is needed to replace oil in passenger cars, since electric motors convert 80%-90% of electricity into motion versus about 18% for gasoline cars. Measuring useful final energy net of waste heat avoids this "primary energy fallacy": the US consumed 45 exajoules of useful final energy versus 95 exajoules of primary energy.
AI Summary.The International Energy Agency's projection for annual carbon dioxide emissions in 2040 has fallen from 50bn tons to 30bn tons, though the world is expected to fall far short of the 1.5°C Paris goal, with warming likely between 2°C and 3°C by 2100. Global energy demand is projected to more than double by 2050.
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Noting that over the past decade global CO2 emissions projected by the IEA have fallen by more than 40%, Bill Gates argues innovation will likely “give us the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions.”
Have emissions forecasts improved even as climate goals go unmet?
Core argument: The International Energy Agency has cut its 2040 global carbon dioxide emissions forecast from 50 billion tons, projected a decade ago, to 30 billion tons, and projects 2050 emissions will be lower still.
Ten years ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2040, the world would be emitting 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now, just a decade later, the IEA’s forecast has dropped to 30 billion, and it’s projecting that 2050 emissions will be even lower. Even if the world takes only moderate action to curb climate change, the current consensus is that by 2100 the Earth’s average temperature will probably be between 2°C and 3°C higher than it was in 1850. That’s well above the 1.5°C goal that countries committed to at the Paris COP in 2015. In fact, between now and 2040, we are going to fall far short of the world’s climate goals. One reason is that the world’s demand for energy is going up—more than doubling by 2050. Although wind and solar have gotten cheaper and better, we don’t yet have all the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions. But we will have the tools we need if we focus on innovation. With the right investments and policies in place, over the next ten years we will have new affordable zero-carbon technologies ready to roll out at scale. Add in the impact of the tools we already have, and by the middle of this century emissions will be lower and the gap between poor countries and rich countries will be greatly reduced.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The International Energy Agency has cut its 2040 global carbon dioxide emissions forecast from 50 billion tons, projected a decade ago, to 30 billion tons, and projects 2050 emissions will be lower still.
The current consensus holds that even with moderate climate action, Earth's average temperature in 2100 will probably be 2–3°C above 1850 levels, well above the 1.5°C goal countries committed to at the 2015 Paris COP.
Global energy demand is set to more than double by 2050, and despite wind and solar becoming cheaper and better, the tools to meet that demand without increasing carbon emissions do not yet all exist.
Related Articles:
The Most Amazing Climate Policy Figure— U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels moved closely with GDP from 1992 to about 2005, after which the two decoupled, with GDP continuing to rise while emissions fell.
Take the Under— Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make climate change appear more tractable, the author argues, since the scenarios used to model emissions rely on socio-economic assumptions that are more extreme than real-world observations. With slower population and economic growth, even partial policy successes could bring emissions consistent with a 2C target within reach.
European Glaciers Have Shrunk 40% Since 2000, Study Says— A study by 35 research teams found that glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees lost about 40% of their volume in less than a quarter of a century. Excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, glaciers elsewhere in the world lost 5% of their volume over roughly the same period.
AI Summary.Global average sea surface temperature reached 20.79C in May, the second-highest May level on record, while atmospheric carbon dioxide peaked at a global mean of 426 parts per million, up from 423 a year earlier. Scientists estimate the ocean absorbs a quarter to 30% of emitted carbon dioxide and about 90% of excess heat.
Attracta Mooney and Steven BernardFinancial Times
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The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit their highest seasonal peak since records began, a global mean of 426 ppm.
Are ocean temperatures staying near record highs as carbon dioxide rises?
Core argument: Atmospheric CO₂ peaked globally at a mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year earlier, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming and fueling concerns about the seas’ ability to absorb rising levels of carbon dioxide. The EU’s Earth observation service Copernicus said the global average sea surface temperature in May was 20.79C, 0.14C below the record in the same month in 2024. The level of CO₂ in the atmosphere peaked globally at the mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year ago, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Scientists estimate the ocean has absorbed between a quarter and about 30% of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and about 90% of excess heat, helping to keep temperatures on land cooler. But Michael Meredith, a scientist at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, warned the ocean “may lose some of its capacity to buffer us against the worst extremes of climate change” by absorbing less warmth or carbon than previously. “We’re seeing stronger and stronger bursts of ocean warming — marine heatwaves — that are pushing us past records at an alarming rate.”
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Atmospheric CO₂ peaked globally at a mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year earlier, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
Scientists estimate the ocean has absorbed between a quarter and about 30% of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and about 90% of excess heat, and Michael Meredith of the British Antarctic Survey warned it may lose some of that buffering capacity.
Related Articles:
Long-term Surface Impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai-like Stratospheric Water Vapor Injection— A volcanic eruption that injected large amounts of water vapor — a strong greenhouse gas — into the stratosphere is estimated to have raised surface temperatures by more than 1.5°C across large regions for several years, while cooling some areas by close to 1°C. The authors suggest a possible link to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that warrants further investigation.
Take the Under— Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make climate change appear more tractable, the author argues, since the scenarios used to model emissions rely on socio-economic assumptions that are more extreme than real-world observations. With slower population and economic growth, even partial policy successes could bring emissions consistent with a 2C target within reach.
AI Summary.A study by 35 research teams found that glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees lost about 40% of their volume in less than a quarter of a century. Excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, glaciers elsewhere in the world lost 5% of their volume over roughly the same period.
Attracta Mooney and Steven BernardFinancial Times
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Glaciers, excluding the world’s largest in Greenland and the Antarctic, lost 5% of their volume over the past 25 years. Glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees were most impacted, losing 40% of their volume over the past 25 years.
Have European glaciers lost more volume than glaciers elsewhere?
Core argument: Glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees lost about 40% of their volume in less than a quarter of a century, according to a study published in Nature and carried out by 35 teams.
The study, carried out by 35 teams and published in the Nature, found that glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees had lost about 40% of their volume in less than a quarter of a century. The research excluded the continental sheets of the Antarctic and Greenland, the world’s biggest ice masses, but concluded that glaciers in the rest of the world had lost 5% of their volume between 2000 and 2023.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Glaciers in the Alps and Pyrenees lost about 40% of their volume in less than a quarter of a century, according to a study published in Nature and carried out by 35 teams.
Glaciers in the rest of the world, excluding the continental ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, lost 5% of their volume between 2000 and 2023, the study found.
The Nature study excluded the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the world's biggest ice masses, from its assessment of glacier volume loss.
Related Articles:
Take the Under— Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make climate change appear more tractable, the author argues, since the scenarios used to model emissions rely on socio-economic assumptions that are more extreme than real-world observations. With slower population and economic growth, even partial policy successes could bring emissions consistent with a 2C target within reach.
Accelerating Glacier Volume Loss On Juneau Icefield Driven By Hypsometry and Melt-Accelerating Feedbacks— Ice loss from Alaska's Juneau Icefield accelerated, with glacier volume loss of 0.65–1.01 km³ per year from 1770–1979 rising to 3.08–3.72 km³ from 1979–2010 and 5.91 ± 0.80 km³ from 2010–2020. The authors attribute the acceleration to rising snowline elevations and pervasive plateau thinning that trigger melt-accelerating feedbacks likely to inhibit future regrowth.
AI Summary.Water availability has been rising on about 54% of land in the contiguous United States and falling on 46%, with a slight net decline equal to 0.04% of average annual U.S. rainfall. Losses are concentrated in central and southern California and the Ogallala aquifer region, while land east of the Mississippi has been stable to gaining.
Cheikh Fall, Christian Hilgemann and Ishan NathFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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A @sffed analysis finds that US aggregate water resources were stable between 2003 and 2022, but California, Texas, and the Southwest experienced sharp declines, with some areas “in the top 1% for water depletion among all global arable land.”
Is U.S. water availability rising or falling across the country?
Core argument: Water availability has been rising on about 54% of land in the contiguous United States and falling on 46%, with drying regions losing more than moistening regions gain, leaving aggregate net losses equal to 0.04% of average annual U.S. rainfall.
Overall, water availability has been rising on about 54% of the land in the contiguous United States and decreasing on 46%. On net, total U.S. water volumes have declined slightly as the drying regions have lost more water than the moistening regions have gained, though aggregate losses are only 0.04% of average annual U.S. rainfall. Most of the western and southwestern United States has been losing substantial quantities of water: Almost all of the land in the bottom 10% of water trends are located in central and southern California and the Ogallala aquifer region at the intersection of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado. Some of these regions are in the top 1% for water depletion among all global arable land. By contrast, the Great Plains and upper Midwest have largely been gaining water resources, and the vast majority of land east of the Mississippi River has seen stable to increasing water resources over time.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Water availability has been rising on about 54% of land in the contiguous United States and falling on 46%, with drying regions losing more than moistening regions gain, leaving aggregate net losses equal to 0.04% of average annual U.S. rainfall.
Almost all U.S. land in the bottom 10% of water trends lies in central and southern California and the Ogallala aquifer region at the intersection of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, with some of these areas in the top 1% for water depletion among all global arable land.
The Great Plains and upper Midwest have largely gained water resources, and the vast majority of land east of the Mississippi River has seen stable to increasing water resources.
Related Articles:
Global Water Scarcity: H2O No!— Less than 1% of the planet's water is usable; water demand has risen about 40% over 40 years and is estimated to increase another 25% by 2050, while supply has more than halved since 1970. Some 57% of global freshwater aquifers are beyond their tipping point, and one-third of piped fresh water is lost to leakage.
America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There’s No Tomorrow— An analysis of 84,544 groundwater monitoring wells across the United States found that nearly half declined significantly over the past 40 years as more water was pumped out than nature replenished. Four of every 10 sites hit all-time lows in the past decade.
Arizona Is Running Out of Cheap Water. Investors Saw It Coming— Phoenix-area suburbs are paying sharply higher prices for water rights from a basin west of the city, with one suburb approving $80m for 6,000 acre-feet — more than double the per-acre-foot price another suburb paid earlier. Arizona's groundwater replenishment assessments rose from $154 to $768 per acre-foot.
AI Summary.China has passed the European Union to become the second-largest source of cumulative historical greenhouse gas emissions, behind the United States. Projections based on the International Energy Agency's "stated policies scenario," which tracks nations' current climate actions, show China may nearly catch up with the US.
Brad Plumer and Mira RojanasakulNew York Times
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China’s cumulative carbon emissions since 1850 have outpaced Europe’s but are still 60% of the US’s level. China has been the world’s #1 carbon emitter since 2006.
Is China now the second-largest source of historical emissions?
Core argument: China has passed the European Union's 27 current member states to become the world's second-largest source of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.
The United States has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history. Europe has long ranked No. 2 in total historical greenhouse gas emissions. Until now. And projections show that China may nearly catch up with the United States. Data for carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from 1850 to 2023 is from Jones et al (2024); data for 2024 from Carbon Brief; projected data for 2025 to 2100 is based on the International Energy Agency’s “stated policies scenario” tracking nations’ climate actions. European Union totals were calculated for the current 27 member countries. Lines show cumulative territorial CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change and forestry.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
China has passed the European Union's 27 current member states to become the world's second-largest source of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.
Projections based on the International Energy Agency's "stated policies scenario" show China may nearly catch up with the United States, which has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history.
The emissions series combines carbon dioxide-equivalent data from Jones et al (2024) for 1850–2023, Carbon Brief for 2024, and IEA-based projections for 2025–2100, covering fossil fuels, cement, and land use, land use change and forestry.
Related Articles:
Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is A Highly Unlikely Outcome— Fossil fuels' share of global primary energy fell only from about 86% to 82% over 25 years, while absolute fossil fuel consumption rose nearly 55%. Emission cuts in the EU (-23%) and US (-9%) were outweighed by China's 3.3x and India's 3x increases, with energy-sector carbon dioxide emissions up 54%.
Take the Under— Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make climate change appear more tractable, the author argues, since the scenarios used to model emissions rely on socio-economic assumptions that are more extreme than real-world observations. With slower population and economic growth, even partial policy successes could bring emissions consistent with a 2C target within reach.
The Energy Transition Will Be Much Cheaper Than You Think— Economic models have overestimated adoption of carbon capture and storage while underestimating cost declines in solar panels and lithium batteries. Researchers modelling solar, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolysers under "Wright's law" — where each doubling of production cuts unit costs by a fixed percentage — estimate emissions fall fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target at minimal cost.
AI Summary.Economic models have overestimated adoption of carbon capture and storage while underestimating cost declines in solar panels and lithium batteries. Researchers modelling solar, wind, batteries and hydrogen electrolysers under "Wright's law" — where each doubling of production cuts unit costs by a fixed percentage — estimate emissions fall fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target at minimal cost.
Economist StaffThe Economist
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Limiting global warming to the 2° target might be more affordable than projected due to slower economic growth and the ongoing decline in the cost of solar power, wind power, and lithium batteries as production volumes increase.
Will falling clean energy costs make cutting emissions far cheaper?
Core argument: Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and co-authors model an energy system in which solar power, wind power, lithium battery and hydrogen electrolyser costs follow "Wright's law," a scenario in which emissions fall fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target at minimal cost.
Economic modellers also have a poor record of predicting technological advances. They overestimate the take-up of some technologies (such as carbon capture and storage, whereby carbon dioxide is sucked out of the smokestacks of power stations and factories and stashed away safely underground) and severely underestimate the falling costs of others, most notably solar panels and lithium batteries. Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and others have modelled an energy system in which the cost of solar power, wind power, lithium batteries and hydrogen electrolysers falls according to “Wright’s law”. This holds that every doubling of production sees unit costs fall by a fixed percentage, with that percentage derived from past experience. In this scenario emissions fall so rapidly that even the 1.5°C target can be met at minimal cost.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and co-authors model an energy system in which solar power, wind power, lithium battery and hydrogen electrolyser costs follow "Wright's law," a scenario in which emissions fall fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target at minimal cost.
Wright's law holds that every doubling of production cuts unit costs by a fixed percentage, with that percentage derived from past experience.
Economic modellers have overestimated take-up of carbon capture and storage while severely underestimating the falling costs of solar panels and lithium batteries.
Related Articles:
Take the Under— Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make climate change appear more tractable, the author argues, since the scenarios used to model emissions rely on socio-economic assumptions that are more extreme than real-world observations. With slower population and economic growth, even partial policy successes could bring emissions consistent with a 2C target within reach.
Global Clean Energy Spending Surges to $1.8 Trillion. It’s Not Enough— Global spending on the clean-energy transition rose 17% to a record $1.8tn, covering renewable power, electric vehicles, hydrogen production and other technologies, with total funding reaching about $2.8tn including supply chains and $900bn in financing. BloombergNEF reports this remains short of a net-zero emissions trajectory.
The Dangerous Effects Of Rising Sea Temperatures— The world's oceans have absorbed 90% of excess heat and about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions during the industrial era, and scientists are investigating what drove an anomalous rise in sea temperatures and whether seas will cool again. Researchers caution there is no guarantee oceans will keep absorbing heat at the same rate.
