“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
AI Summary.30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring at that low level earn an average of nearly $30 an hour and two-thirds are employed, compared with about $20 and fewer than half employed in Britain. The author argues this reflects stronger economic growth rather than vocational education policy.
John Burn-MurdochFinancial Times
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Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British workers scoring a 2, ~ a mean score.
Does economic growth matter more than education policy for low-skilled workers' pay?
Core argument: 30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring that low earn an average of almost $30 per hour and two-thirds of them are employed.
30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old. The same proportion of US workers who score stunningly low on literacy earn an average of almost $30 per hour, and two-thirds of them are in work. Their British counterparts make the equivalent of $20 and fewer than half are employed. This all looks more like the fruits of years of stronger growth than vocational education policy. We should view education as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes (and a weak one disappoints).
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old, yet US workers scoring that low earn an average of almost $30 per hour and two-thirds of them are employed.
British workers with similarly low literacy scores earn the equivalent of $20 per hour and fewer than half are employed, a gap the author attributes to years of stronger US growth rather than vocational education policy.
The author argues that education should be viewed as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes and a weak one disappoints.
Related Articles:
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Toward An Understanding Of The Returns To Cognitive Skills Across Cohorts— The authors find that the estimated decline in labor market returns to pre-labor-market cognitive skills for white men across two U.S. youth cohorts depends critically on the widening and increased left-skewness of the test-score distribution, with declines appearing only at the lower end of that distribution.
Cognitive Skills Beyond Childhood— Wages at age 50 rise more steeply with cognitive skills measured at age 16 than with cognitive skills measured at age 50; for women, moving from average to two standard deviations above average raises expected hourly wages from £11 to £22 using age-16 skills, versus £12 to £15 using age-50 skills.
AI Summary.A study of China's imperial civil service examination estimates that both exam performance and ties to powerful examiners had larger effects on career outcomes for high-performing candidates, indicating merit and networks were complements rather than substitutes. The authors argue this complementarity makes the influence of networks harder to distinguish from merit.
Ying Bai and Ruixue JiaNational Bureau of Economic Research
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From 1644–1905, Qing China staffed its bureaucracy through exams and patronage. Only 12.6% of exam graduates reached top office, but patronage favored stronger performers, illustrating how merit and connections can be complements rather than substitutes.
Do merit and connections reinforce each other in civil service careers?
Core argument: In China's imperial examination system, exam performance mattered more for candidates in the high-performing category, consistent with an institutional design that steered that elite group toward more prestigious careers.
Figure 5 studies the interplay between merit and networks by estimating the effects of exam performance and ties to powerful examiners separately for the high- and low-performing categories. The left panel shows the effects of exam performance for the two categories, while the right panel presents those of examiner power. Two patterns stand out. First, exam performance matters more for the high category, consistent with the institutional design that steered this elite group toward more prestigious careers. Second, ties to powerful examiners are also more valuable for the high category, pointing to a complementarity between merit and networks. To understand the implications of our finding on complementarity, it is useful to contrast it with the counterfactual of substitution. When merit and networks are complements (rather than substitutes), those who attained top office tend to exhibit both stronger exam performance and stronger connections. By contrast, under substitution, strong networks would compensate for weaker exam performance, and vice versa. Complementarity implies [a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, as] successful candidates appear to have had better performance. Second, complementarity makes it harder to identify the influence of networks: their effects can operate under the guise of merit rather than as a visible substitute for it.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
In China's imperial examination system, exam performance mattered more for candidates in the high-performing category, consistent with an institutional design that steered that elite group toward more prestigious careers.
Ties to powerful examiners were also more valuable for the high-performing category, pointing to complementarity between merit and networks rather than substitution.
Complementarity implies a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, since those attaining top office tended to show both stronger exam performance and stronger connections, and it makes the influence of networks harder to identify because it can operate under the guise of merit.
Related Articles:
Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming— A study of China's Ming-to-Qing dynastic transition finds elite families in Central China lost influence in the short run but their descendants regained and tightened their hold on power under the new dynasty, even as the hardest-hit regions stayed worse off. The authors attribute the recovery to emphasis on portable civil-service exam skills.
The Inheritance Of Social Status: England, 1600 to 2022— Using a genealogical database of 422,374 English people with rarer surnames, the authors find social status persists strongly even among distant relatives, with status correlations declining by a constant factor of 0.79 per step in the lineage across all status measures and eras studied. The authors argue this constancy suggests social interventions have modest effects.
For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 Shows Genetics Determines Most Social Outcomes— A study of 402,000 English individuals across 1750–2020 estimates an intergenerational occupational status correlation of 0.88 and a genetic correlation between spouses of 0.76, which the authors interpret as a strong genetic basis for the persistence of social status. The authors argue that highly assortative mating around status genetics limits what policy can do to raise social mobility.
AI Summary.A meta-study of 79 causal estimates finds an average 8.2% earnings gain per year of education, matching earlier work, but also finds evidence of publication bias favoring statistically significant and positive estimates. Correcting for these biases implies an average causal return in the 0%–3% range.
Gregory Clark and Christian Alexander Abildgaard NielsenKyklos
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Clark and Nielsen replicate the ~8% estimates of the return to education obtained by standard methods, but find evidence of selection biases in favor of high estimated returns. After correcting for these biases, they calculate returns on the order of 3%.
Do publication biases inflate estimated earnings returns to education?
Core argument: A meta-study of 79 causal estimates of education's effect on earnings, drawn from school-leaving age mandates and child labor bans, reports an 8.2% earnings gain per year of education, similar to the earlier Ashenfelter et al. study.
In this meta-study of 79 estimates of the causal effects of education on earnings (derived from increases of the mandated school-leaving age or legislation banning child labor under certain ages), we report a similar effect to [the classic] earlier study (Ashenfelter, et al): an 8.2% gain in earnings for each year of education. We also find clear evidence of significant publication biases. Studies passing the filter of publication were more likely to have coefficients statistically significantly greater than 0, and we observe strong evidence that studies with returns estimated at less than 0 were more difficult to publish. There is strong suggestive evidence of the first publication bias in the data. Figure 6 shows that the average estimated return rises substantially where the standard error is larger. This suggests a greater likelihood of an estimate being published when it was statistically significantly different from 0. If all estimates were published independent of the estimated return, we would not expect there to be such a gradient. Correcting the first publication bias by looking at the average return on the studies with the lowest standard errors would suggest an average causal return to education of no more than 3%, compared to the reported 8.2%. Independent of this, correcting for the omission of returns less than 0 implies an overall causal return to education only in the 0%–3% range.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
A meta-study of 79 causal estimates of education's effect on earnings, drawn from school-leaving age mandates and child labor bans, reports an 8.2% earnings gain per year of education, similar to the earlier Ashenfelter et al. study.
Average estimated returns to education rise substantially where standard errors are larger, which suggests estimates were more likely to be published when statistically significantly different from 0.
Correcting for publication bias by using the studies with the lowest standard errors would suggest an average causal return to education of no more than 3%, while correcting for omitted negative estimates implies a 0%–3% range.
Related Articles:
Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges— An analysis of admissions and transcript records at Ivy-Plus colleges finds standardized test scores predict first-year college grades with a normalized slope 4x greater than high school grade point average, controlling for race, gender, and socioeconomic status. The authors find no evidence test scores underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force— The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
AI Summary.Students admitted to elite high schools just above the admissions cutoff are estimated to be 3.2pp less likely to have ever held a formal private-sector job five years later — a 16% decline versus those just missing the cutoff — and to earn 5.3% lower wages. These gaps shrink over time and are statistically insignificant after 15 years.
Francisco Cabrera-Hernández, Andrew Dustan, Daniel Osuna Gomez and María Padilla-RomoNational Bureau of Economic Research
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In data from the Mexico City metro area over 2003–2009, students who just missed the exam score cutoff for admission to an elite high school have 5.3% higher wages after five years (2.5% after 10 years) than marginally admitted students.
Does barely getting into an elite high school lower early earnings?
Core argument: Marginal assignment to an elite high school causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job five years later at ages 19–20, a 16% drop from the 20% base rate for students just below the cutoff.
[We] trace out the [harmful] causal impact of [marginal] assignment to an elite school [as opposed to just missing the admissions cutoff] on formal private labor market outcomes over time. Five years after the assignment process (at ages 19-20, beyond high school age), elite assignment [based on a test score marginally above the cutoff] causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job. This is a 16% decline relative to the base rate of 20% for students missing the elite cutoff by one point. Over time, this elite disadvantage declines: after 10 years (at ages 24-25, after the typical age of college graduation), the effect is -2.1pp, while after 15 years (at ages 29-30) the estimated -0.2pp impact is statistically insignificant. While the negative effect on formal employment eventually fades, it leaves elite students with a deficit in formal labor market experience. After 5 years, elite assignment reduces the cumulative number of months with a formal job by 14%. Conditional on formal employment, marginal elite assignment causes a reduction in wages that fades out over time. Five years after assignment, elite assignment reduces wages by 5.3%. This reduction declines to 2.6% after 10 years, and [essentially vanishes] after 15 years.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Marginal assignment to an elite high school causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job five years later at ages 19–20, a 16% drop from the 20% base rate for students just below the cutoff.
The elite-assignment employment disadvantage fades over time, falling to -2.1pp after 10 years (ages 24–25) and a statistically insignificant -0.2pp after 15 years (ages 29–30).
Conditional on formal employment, marginal elite assignment reduces wages by 5.3% after five years and 2.6% after 10 years, and cuts cumulative months of formal work by 14% after five years.
Related Articles:
Marginal Returns to Public Universities— Using admission-score cutoffs across all 35 Texas public universities, the author estimates that marginally admitted students complete an additional year of four-year education, are 12 percentage points more likely to earn a bachelor's degree, and earn 5–10% more than marginally rejected peers, with gains driven by students who otherwise would not attend a four-year school.
Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle— China's reported 65-point jump in mean international student test scores between testing rounds coincided with a change in which provinces represented the country, swapping the most populous province for a richer, much smaller one. The author argues such swings, including a fall in low performers from 43% to 19% in reading, are unmatched elsewhere.
AI Summary.A falling US birth rate is projected to shrink the pool of college-age Americans, leaving schools with empty classrooms. Many smaller, lesser-known colleges are already firing professors, cutting liberal arts courses in favor of science and technology programs, or closing entirely.
Elizabeth Rembert, Amanda Albright and Marie PatinoBloomberg
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As America’s demographics roll over, smaller public and private liberal arts colleges have “already hit the precipice.” Btw 2003 and 2024, more than 100 public campuses closed, and ~ 2/3 of private for-profit colleges have shut down since the 2010s.
How is a falling birth rate reshaping American colleges?
Core argument: The US pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025, pushing schools toward a "demographic cliff" in which a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s leaves desks and classrooms empty.
The country’s tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a “demographic cliff,” where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools have already hit the precipice. They’re firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years. Although it has plunged since the 1950s, the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. The financial pressure will be relentless. “If colleges were facing a stark decline in one or two cohorts, higher ed could likely say, ‘Well, we could admit a few additional students and tighten our belts to muddle through,’” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, who has written books about education and demographics. “But it’s one year after another of contraction, of ratcheting up the pressure.”
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
The US pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025, pushing schools toward a "demographic cliff" in which a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s leaves desks and classrooms empty.
Many smaller, lesser-known US colleges have already reached the precipice, firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM, or closing altogether, with others likely to reach it in the next few years.
Carleton College economics professor Nathan Grawe argues that higher education could muddle through a decline in one or two cohorts by admitting a few additional students and tightening belts, but faces one year after another of contraction.
Related Articles:
Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment— Declines in U.S. college enrollment are concentrated in community colleges, with four-year institutions maintaining stable enrollments and over one-third of the apparent community college drop stemming from administrative reclassification. The authors estimate that stronger labor markets explain 60% of the community college enrollment decline over 2009-19.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900— Students from the bottom third of parental income now earn less than half the college enrollment wage premium of top-third students. The authors attribute this mainly to the rising relative value of research universities, lower-income students' diversion to community and for-profit colleges, and their shift from computer science and engineering into humanities.
AI Summary.Adjusted for poverty and student demographics, Mississippi ranks first nationally in fourth-grade reading and math and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. The state changed reading instruction and adopted accountability policies that credit schools for student progress, with double credit for the bottom 25%.
Sarah MervoshNew York Times
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Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near the top in eighth-grade scores. In absolute terms, “eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math.”
How did one state's reading instruction and accountability reforms raise test scores?
Core argument: Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi ranks No. 1 nationally in fourth grade reading and math and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute.
Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi is No. 1 for fourth grade reading and math, and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. Mississippi’s gains have been confined mostly to the early years, where the state has focused its efforts. The system revolves around standardized testing, and the gains have not always persisted. By raw scores, Mississippi eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math. The state pushed through a vast list of other changes from the top down, including changing the way reading is taught, in an approach known as the science of reading, but also embracing contentious school accountability policies other states have backed away from. Unlike No Child Left Behind, the Bush-era federal law that set a goal of having every child in America be proficient in reading and math, Mississippi also measures how much students progress toward proficiency. Schools get credit if students show improvement — and double credit for the improvement of students in the bottom 25%.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi ranks No. 1 nationally in fourth grade reading and math and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute.
Mississippi's gains are concentrated in the early grades where the state focused its efforts, and by raw scores its eighth graders still rank 41st in reading and 35th in math on national tests.
Mississippi's accountability system, unlike No Child Left Behind's proficiency goal, credits schools for student progress toward proficiency and gives double credit for improvement among students in the bottom 25%.
Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low— U.S. twelfth-graders' average math and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell to their lowest levels on record, with math the worst since that test began in 2005 and reading below any point since 1992. The share rated proficient slid 2 percentage points to 35% in reading and 22% in math.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
AI Summary.Registered disability rates among undergraduates have risen at elite US universities, reaching 38% at Stanford and 21% at Harvard, both up from 5% in 2009, with similar increases across 19 European countries. In the poorest US school districts, 1% of young people are on special-support plans, unchanged, while the share in the richest areas tripled from 2% to 6%.
John Burn-MurdochFinancial Times
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In 2025, 38% of Stanford and 21% of Harvard undergrads were registered as having a disability — up from 5% in 2009; 6% of youth from the richest US school districts, and 1% from the poorest, are now in special support programs.
Are rising student disability rates concentrated among the wealthiest families?
Core argument: Research by Rose Horowitch for The Atlantic found 38% of Stanford undergraduates and 21% of Harvard undergraduates are registered as having a disability, both up from 5% in 2009.
In the US, research by Rose Horowitch for the Atlantic magazine found that 38% of undergraduates at Stanford this year are registered as having a disability, as are 21% at Harvard — both up from 5% in 2009. My analysis of data from 19 European countries finds similar trends, with health impairments among students doubling on average over the past decade. In 2010, 1% of American young people from the poorest school districts were on plans that provide special support, and today that figure is unchanged. But among those in the richest areas, it has tripled from 2 to 6%.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Research by Rose Horowitch for The Atlantic found 38% of Stanford undergraduates and 21% of Harvard undergraduates are registered as having a disability, both up from 5% in 2009.
An analysis of data from 19 European countries finds health impairments among students doubled on average over the past decade.
Among American young people in the richest school districts, the share on plans providing special support tripled from 2% to 6% since 2010, while the share in the poorest districts remained at 1%.
Related Articles:
Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force— The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World?— An international assessment of adult skills describes numeracy proficiency levels ranging from counting objects and adding small whole numbers at the lowest level, to extracting information from tables and graphs and performing basic arithmetic with money and percentages at Level 1, up to analysing complex mathematical information and critically evaluating whether data support a claim at Level 5.
Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low— U.S. twelfth-graders' average math and reading scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress fell to their lowest levels on record, with math the worst since that test began in 2005 and reading below any point since 1992. The share rated proficient slid 2 percentage points to 35% in reading and 22% in math.
AI Summary.Declines in U.S. college enrollment are concentrated in community colleges, with four-year institutions maintaining stable enrollments and over one-third of the apparent community college drop stemming from administrative reclassification. The authors estimate that stronger labor markets explain 60% of the community college enrollment decline over 2009-19.
Joshua Goodman and Joseph WinkelmannNational Bureau of Economic Research
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First-time undergraduate enrollment in public 4-year colleges has ~ doubled since 1990. In public 2-year and for-profit institutions, enrollment has ~ halved. Stronger labor markets explain 60% of the drop in enrollment in two-year colleges.
Do stronger labor markets explain falling community college enrollment?
Core argument: Strengthening labor markets explain 60% of the decline in U.S. community college enrollment from 2009–19 and nearly 50% of the decline through 2023, according to the authors.
We demonstrate that widely discussed declines in U.S. college enrollment reflect patterns concentrated in community colleges rather than a broad crisis in higher education. We show that: four-year institutions have maintained stable enrollments; over one-third of apparent community college declines stem from administrative reclassification; community college enrollments are strongly countercyclical; strengthening labor markets explain 60% of the community college enrollment decline from 2009-19 (and nearly 50% of the decline through 2023); and students on the margin between community college enrollment and employment appear unlikely to complete a degree. Figure 3 overlays six decades of first-time enrollment data with gray bars indicating years when the national unemployment rate was increasing. Of the last six such recessionary periods, all but the most recent pandemic-related rise in unemployment show local maxima in community college enrollments. Unemployment rates seem less clearly related to enrollments in public four-year colleges over this time period, or to enrollment in private four-year and for-profit colleges during the last three decades.
Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI
Strengthening labor markets explain 60% of the decline in U.S. community college enrollment from 2009–19 and nearly 50% of the decline through 2023, according to the authors.
Over one-third of the apparent community college enrollment decline stems from administrative reclassification, while four-year institutions have maintained stable enrollments.
Of the last six periods of rising national unemployment, all but the pandemic-related rise coincide with local maxima in community college first-time enrollment, with less clear relationships for public four-year, private four-year, and for-profit colleges.
Related Articles:
The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market— Labor market tightness produced an unexpected compression in the US wage distribution, with disproportionate wage growth at the bottom reducing the college wage premium and reversing nearly 40% of the rise in 90-10 wage inequality since 1980. The authors attribute this in part to increased competition for low-wage workers.
Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market?— Among unemployed workers aged 22–27, the rate of exiting unemployment for college graduates trended upward from 1976 to 2000 and then declined sharply, while the rate for high school graduates was stable until 2008 and now sits near its long-run average. The gap between the two groups narrowed after 2000 and closed entirely around 2019.
Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force— The authors find a steady decline in U.S. Marine Corps officers' General Classification Test scores, which is statistically associated with the expansion of college attendance and explains 96% of the measured change. They also find a positive association between African American officers and mean test scores, arguing affirmative action has not lowered officer quality.
