My Op-ed Today’s WSJ: Is the Tax Cut Paying For Itself? By a Mile. Tax Reform Is Covering Its Costs Faster growth is on track to outpace debt in the next decade. Is the 2017 tax reform paying for itself? It’s a complicated question, but the critics have made up their minds. Outlets like the Tax Policy Center claim the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has diminished federal revenue rather than increase it as some supporters predicted. Other skeptics lament surging government deficits and debt. Some point to last year’s brief economic spurt as evidence of the law’s failure to drive long-term growth. Even… Read More
Read My New National Review Op-Ed: “Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About 70% Tax Rates” Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About 70% Tax Rates Their only justification is to confiscate others’ money. My op-ed in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal argued that academic justifications for 70 percent marginal tax rates, such as Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez’s, are nothing more than a veneer intended to deceive a wider audience that doesn’t know better. Saez’s expansion of his justification for confiscatory taxes in the New York Times does little to prove otherwise. Diamond and Saez’s original argument for a 70 percent tax rate – that it would enhance both tax revenue and social welfare – ignores the… Read More
Read My New Wall Street Journal Op-Ed: “The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates” The Crippling Cost of 70% Tax Rates Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s proposal would smother investment and innovation, leaving America poorer. Newly elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez spent her first few weeks on Capitol Hill calling for a 70% top marginal income-tax rate, and suddenly the debate over optimal rates has reopened. To support her charge, some liberals are citing a 2011 study by economists Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez, which advocates for confiscatory upper-range tax rates. But a quick look at their analysis reveals grave caveats that only an advocate of higher taxes could… Read More
Extraordinary Circumstances in 1950s Overwhelmed Economic Policy Economists who claim fast growth in the 1950s (when the marginal tax rate was high and government spending was low) indicates high taxes and spending don’t slow growth are playing you for a sucker and shouldn’t be trusted. Extraordinary circumstances in the 1950s overwhelmed economic policy. From my book The Upside of Inequality: Even academics, on whom we depend for the truth, write papers with provocative conclusions intended to garner media attention based on simplifying assumptions overlooked by a time-pressed media and their audience. This is how Piketty and Saez… Read More
Corporate R&D Creates Knowledge Spillovers That Increase Entrepreneurial Activity New research by Tania Babina and Sabrina Howell finds “a one standard deviation increase in R&D is associated with an 18.7 percent increase in entrepreneurial spawning”—employees leaving to start new firms. It also finds “the results are robust to including four-digit SIC code fixed effects, suggesting that narrow industries do not explain the result.” The authors claim that “for the parent firm, the spawning effect of R&D yields no obvious contractual benefits, nor is it observably costly.” They observe “that a remarkable 88 percent of spawns are located in the… Read More
20-40% of Declining Workforce Participation from Prime Working-Age Men Dropping Out (for Less Than 2 Years) to Increase Their Leisure New research finds: The rise of in-and-outs [men 25 to 54 years old who leave the workforce for 2 years or less] has [increased] steadily over time. … While in-and-outs only comprised 1.5% of the prime age male population in any given month in 1984, this share had risen to 2.9% by 2010. Given that there were nearly 62 million prime age men in the US in 2010, the increase in this share represents about 1 million additional men out of work at any point in time due to this… Read More
Evidence Indicates 75% of Business Pass-Through Income Is Owners’ Labor Income Contrary to Thomas Piketty’s far-fetched claim that “[human capital] is far less consequential than one might imagine,” a new NBER paper finds “top earners are predominantly working rich,” mainly “undiversified working-age owners of midmarket firms in skill-intensive industries,” who “derive most of their income from human capital, not physical or financial capital,” and that, “Less than 13% of people in the 99.9th percentile derive most of their income from interest, rents, and other capital income.” “Match[ing] 83% of top 1% individuals born in 1980-1982 to their parents,” and “classif[ing] an… Read More
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HIGHLIGHTS
A Trade Policy That Wouldn’t Leave Low-Wage Workers Behind Edward Conard National Review December 5, 2016 President-elect Donald Trump has shown Republicans how to forge a new electoral college majority by energizing blue-collar voters. His victory, with its demands to restrict trade and immigration, also marks the end of free-market advocates’ control over the Republican party. But there is a way that these advocates might find common ground with blue-collar Republicans to accelerate wage growth, better fund looming pension benefits without tax increases, and defeat the next iteration of liberalism. Republicans have always been a coalition of voting minorities,… Read More
Dallas Morning News Q&A: How We Can Address Growing Wage Disparity with Ultra-High-Skilled Immigration Ed Conard speaks with Jim Mitchell of the Dallas Morning News about his new book, The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class. Jim Mitchell Dallas Morning News October 13, 2016 Former Bain Capital managing director Edward Conard says middle-class prosperity is taking it on the chin, but the concentration of wealth in the top 1 percent is not the reason. The problem is the entrepreneurs have moved to Silicon Valley, with few left behind to re-employ workers in areas where factories are closing down. In his new book, The Upside of… Read More
“The Upside of Inequality” Reaches #1 on New York Times Business Book List My new book The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class reached #1 on the New York Times bestselling business book list this month. The National Review says Upside is “the Conservative answer to Thomas Piketty that you’ve all been waiting for.” Buy the book, write a review, or follow me on social media at www.EdwardConard.com/Action. Read More
Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith on My Views About Trumponomics & The Future of the GOP Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith summarizes my talk at Mitt Romney’s offsite conference on how advocates of free enterprise can find common ground with Trump supporters, and win the presidential election without slowing the economy or dividing the country. It’s a little over-the-top, with menacing music and such, but you can read Ben's post below and watch my presentation here. Buzzfeed by Ben Smith September 28, 2016 At a private gathering of wealthy Republicans this June, a banker named Edward Conard made a radical proposal: To save capitalism from Donald Trump, American business leaders would need to abandon old… Read More
“The Upside of Inequality” Reaches #8 on The New York Times Bestseller List! My new book The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class reached #8 on the New York Times bestseller list this week. I summarize the book for Morning Joe, Maria Bartiromo, The New York Times and TIME Magazine. The National Review says Upside is “the Conservative answer to Thomas Piketty that you’ve all been waiting for.” Buy the book, write a review, or follow me on social media at www.EdwardConard.com/Action. Read More
National Review: “The Upside of Inequality” Is The Conservative Answer to Piketty That You’ve All Been Waiting For National Review by Patrick Brennan September 19, 2016 It’s been a rough few years for conservative economics. In some arenas, such as federal policymaking, this is understandable, given who holds the White House. But the fact that we’re losing ground in the world of ideas, too, is less forgivable. In some arenas, such as federal policymaking, this is understandable, given who holds the White House. But the fact that we’re losing ground in the world of ideas, too, is less forgivable. Consider the economics books and ideas that have broken… Read More
What Liberals Don’t Understand About Income Inequality Edward Conard Time.com September 13, 2016 Blaming the success of America’s 1% for the slow growth of middle- and working-class incomes leads to policies that slow an already slow-growing economy. A shortage of properly trained talent and risk-taking limit the growth of America’s innovation-driven economy. In those circumstances, growth can manifest itself as an increase in employment or an increase in wages. When America spreads talent and entrepreneurial risk-taking over a greater number of workers, it slows middle- and working-class productivity and wage growth. U.S. employment has grown twice as… Read More
Edward Conard Debate Highlights Edward Conard published The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class in September 2016. The book debuted at #8 on the New York Times top ten non-fiction list and reached #1 on the New York Times business book list. Upside was met with positive reviews, including former president of Harvard University and economist Larry Summers, a very tough critic on the other side of the aisle, blurbed: I disagree but respect the argument, calling it “a very valuable contribution” that will “sharpen your thinking on critical economic issues.” National Review said of Conard and Upside:… Read More