Trump’s Northeast win last night was bigger than expected. Online punters raised his odds of winning the nomination from 71% to 77%—up from 50% after Mitt Romney criticized him in mid-March. They also lowered the odds significantly of Trump failing to reach a majority of delegates prior to the convention, from 63% to 42%.
Unfortunately, Trump’s gains come at the expense of the GOP. While the odds of the Republican nominee winning the presidency slipped a point to a lowly 23%, the odds of the GOP holding the senate plummeted from 40% to 32% down from 55% when the primary first started.
