Edward Conard

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With More Trump Victories, Odds of Contested Convention Plunge and GOP Victory Decline

Trump’s Northeast win last night was bigger than expected. Online punters raised his odds of winning the nomination from 71% to 77%—up from 50% after Mitt Romney criticized him in mid-March. They also lowered the odds significantly of Trump failing to reach a majority of delegates prior to the convention, from 63% to 42%.

Unfortunately, Trump’s gains come at the expense of the GOP. While the odds of the Republican nominee winning the presidency slipped a point to a lowly 23%,‎ the odds of the GOP holding the senate plummeted from 40% to 32% down from 55% when the primary first started.

With More Trump Victories, Odds of Contested Convention Plunges and GOP Victory Declines

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